did phillippe couilliard even fall into a separatist trap, however accidental?

i wouldn't assign that level of foresight to the sovereigntist movement in quebec. sorry.

but, consider the oft-maligned line about "money and the ethnic vote.". there was always a certain amount of truth underlying the calculation that federalist support in quebec was dominant amongst recent immigrants, and that they had a tipping effect over the inclinations of the old stock pure-laine population. in the sense that federalist support was always tied to liberal support, you could argue that both the liberals (and the federalist cause) relied on the support of recent immigrants, and their recent descendants. so, what to make of the liberal party's adoption of the charter - which is adopted by the image of federalism, by proxy? they're attacking their key support base.

if i was a montrealer of recent arrival, and i was looking at the political spectrum, it would seem to me like the only provincial party that is of any interest to me is the quebec solidaire. by extension, this is going to make sovereignty more attractive to the "ethnic vote" than federalism, producing a sovereigntist movement that is more reflective of quebec's existing demographics - and therefore more likely to succeed.

i suspect that remaining support for the pq right now is very soft, and especially very soft around this issue. if the vote is framed as a referendum over the charter, that is if the voting decision (where it exists) between the pq and the qs is framed this way, i would expect the pq to crumble. the truth is that the pq has become a provincial voice for old bigots.

i don't expect this rearrangement to be complete by the next election, but rather that the results of the next election will produce it. the liberals may win their fight against caq, as the left splits and crashes. but, the inevitable result of this realignment is a powerful sovereigntist bloc on the left, in time for 2022.

if that happens, this purportedly tactical move by the liberals is going to appear most pyrrhic. and, it may spill over to the federal election, once these voters are released from brand liberal.

jagmeet singh must cut his beard.