i'll bite tonight on north korea, but i usually don't pay a lot of attention.

the reason is that north korea is an absolute stalemate. mathemtically, tactically, strategically - there is no move on either side that is possible. and, the truth is that the nuclear deterrent doesn't really alter anything at all.

so, nobody makes any moves, because there aren't any to make.

....except the guy that doesn't understand anything about tactics, strategy or mathematics. that guy thinks he can solve the problem nobody else can, because, by the sheer magnitude of his ignorance, he is the only one smart enough to do it. over confidence is a dangerous trait for a world leader.

in this sense, trump is more jong-il than they are, themselves.

but, that doesn't mean that anybody is going to let trump actually do anything substantive. i'm going to put this down starkly: trump is more likely to get assassinated than he is to succeed in launching any kind of an attack on north korea. so, we just have to be patient about this, and hope that the chinese are wise enough (sorry....) to see the situation for what it is and wait it out.

but, let's suppose that, somehow, trump wins this argument, and the generals let him put the army guys in korea, so he can do his little tour, and pretend he's avenging the other mccarthy - no, the other other mccarthy*. then what?

i honestly don't think the chinese react, or at least not immediately. there's that river. that's the red line. and, if a more competent leader were to do this, they might have to. but, trump? no...

what the chinese are going to do is look at what happened in iraq, and try to emulate it. iran could have never removed saddam hussein on it's own. but, once he was gone, they walked into the power vacuum and have converted an enemy into an ally.

likewise, what the chinese are going to do is lay low for a little while and then take advantage of the situation on the ground. that will include taking advantage of angst from countries like south korea and potentially japan about american recklessness.

ten years after the american invasion, the korean problem will be solved - by annexation.

....and, there may be aspects of the chinese leadership that are consequently hoping he does it....

 ....but i don't expect this stalemate to break any time soon, because there really isn't a way to break it. so, on to other matters.








*the mccarthier one.