so, what's with this wildcard late entry, this tanya granic allen?

last minute entries are usually fronts for somebody looking to split the vote. and, on first glance, it may appear that somebody wants to cut into ford's base.

i don't think so, actually.

identity politics is a terrible virus that must be destroyed, but, so long as it is here, we have to analyze it. and, there are certain demographics that are well understood, through empirical analysis, to vote almost entirely on identity. obama got something like 98% of the black vote.

women are currently also another group that prioritizes identity over ideology in making decisions. i say this with no happiness; i wish it were not true, and i hope it changes, over time. but, in the present moment, the reality is that women vote for women.

so, running a third woman on the right - that is different than the two in the middle - is probably an attempt to siphon identity votes away from the two centrist candidates. she's meant to appeal to women that prefer ford's politics, but will vote for a woman, if possible, no matter what, anyways.

will it cut into ford? probably not, because he's so polarizing. i don't expect ford's numbers to move much in either direction.

now, deductive logic doesn't mean anything in reality. but, if they're running her to eat into ford's base, it's poorly thought through (which would finger mulroney rather than elliot - and do remember that mulroney is the establishment candidate, here).

given how far to the right the tory base is, this wildcard entry could even beat one or both of the two centrist female candidates.

based solely on an identity politics analysis in the tory base, i would expect tga to beat mulroney, at least.

jagmeet singh must cut his beard.