to be clear: i still think the liberals can win this election.

...because it's becoming clear that no large movement to the ndp is happening.

i'm clearly offside with public opinion: i actually like wynne, and rather dislike horwath. wynne comes off as genuine, if flawed. horwath is an absolute flake. i don't believe a word that horwath says, for better or worse.

the reality is that the liberals have a better record than the ndp does.

but, the fact that the ndp aren't moving means that wynne still has enough of a base to build on. if the ship starts sinking, that will be what it looks like; if she can stay above water, she can strike.

so, if the liberals win, it's going to be because the province makes a last minute and very sober decision to vote for somebody they don't like, but has policies they prefer. that's dangerous. it's rare. but this is a bit of a weird place; this has happened before, here.

polls always overshoot the tories. it's especially bad in this province; i suppose we've all forgotten the last election. and, we still have huge numbers of undecideds...

...but it's getting a bit dire.