the abacus poll may seem relatively reasonable upon first glance, but don't let that distract you from the fact that they are not doing scientific polling, and should essentially be ignored by serious observers.

if the poll is picking something up, it's by accident.

nor would there be any reason to draw a causal relationship between trudeau's trip to india - which nobody actually cares about besides the tory media - and any decrease in support, given that there are plenty of better reasons to see his support slip. if he was trying to stop movement to the ndp, such a thing is beyond rational deconstruction, and it's not going to stop something that was never going to happen in the first place.

it's like lisa's rock that keeps away lions.

the actual movement in the poll is to the greens and not the conservatives or ndp, which would suggest that the movement (if real, by accident) is due to distaste over trudeau's lack of a serious policy on climate change. and, it may be partially connected to the mulroneyesque bait and switch in the budget, which appears to be putting funding into conservation at the expense of transition.

but, i'm going to vote for variation.

don't expect the national post to skip a good yarn, though.

just typical tory media nonsense...

http://nationalpost.com/news/politics/john-ivison-trudeaus-blunder-filled-india-trip-sinks-liberals-in-the-polls