again: i don't see a reason to think that we're dealing with large shifts, just yet. i still think we have a lot of people that haven't decided, and it's producing funny polls.

but, i don't know of a scenario in ontario where the ndp finished second and the conservatives finished first.

the 2011 federal election is probably not the best predictor, because the conservatives polled relatively high and the ndp & liberals split almost cleanly. that doesn't appear to be likely this time.

i suspect the numbers may in the end look a little more like the 2008 federal election, although it's not clear which party will end up in second and which will end up in third. the numbers then were:

conservatives - 39% / 52 seats
liberals - 34% / 38 seats
ndp - 18% / 17 seats

it's dangerous to invert the liberals & ndp and conclude they'll end up with the same number of seats after the inversion; if the ndp are running at 34% and the liberals are running at 18%, you can't really conclude that the ndp will get 38 seats or the liberals will get 17 seats.

but, i think this is the type of parliament we're on the way towards - one where the conservatives have a plurality of seats, but the ndp & liberals together have a majority.

while the fake polling isn't a convincing argument, i'm beginning to concede the point that wynne is burying herself, and that an ndp shift is becoming inevitable - it's just a question of trying to accurately quantify it.

it's way too early to start modelling. but i don't see an obvious parallel, right now.