brief polling update - with warren and sanders continuing to fall, buttigieg flattening out and biden holding steady, it would appear at this point that biden is actually likely to run the table.

i repeat: it is not clear at this point which states biden would be likely to lose in.

it's getting too late to say it's early, but there is nonetheless too much time to make predictions. the trends seem pretty clear, though.

your reality check is that, right now, biden actually looks set to win every single state.

how can that change?

well, sanders has continued to demonstrate absolutely no growth at all, whatsoever, and he's continuously the least liked and most hated candidate on the ballot. his only chance is a massive split, and that's easing up as warren's vote fades back into biden's. if warren completely collapses, biden's margin just comes up.

if buttigieg clean splits the vote with biden, sanders might be able to run up the middle, but it's not even clear that he has enough support to do that. if he's only running at 30%, and biden and buttigieg both get 35%, he still finishes in third. those numbers aren't great, but you get the point - he might not even be running high enough that he can even split. this is what happened to andrew scheer in canada a few weeks ago - he couldn't even come up the middle, in most of ontario. instead, the liberals won both tory and ndp strongholds, while actually seeing their vote decline.

so, buttigieg is going to have to beat biden straight up with his own voters.

and, that seems exceedingly unlikely.

my odds right now would be:

biden - 2:1
buttigieg - 50:1
sanders - 100:1
warren - 1000:1

but, again, understand what i'm saying - biden's going to run the table.