so, it's not going to be surprising if buttigieg catches sanders in new hampshire, and, if he does, it won't be at his expense. warren & klobuchar are both falling into the lower tiers more generally, and buttigieg could badly beat biden in this state, too, even if that doesn't kill him. this is the first evidence we're seeing of biden explicitly losing to another candidate; it's been a while coming, surely, but it's just finally actually happening just right now.

keeping in mind that sanders got like 70% of the vote in 2016, you'd think polling at 35% should be sort of disappointing. and, given that the centrists are, together, polling closer to 70% right now, that means buttigieg has some space to grow.

but, sanders and buttigieg are not running against each other right now so much as they're running beside each other, and the outcome of the race is really going to depend on how much support buttigieg can pull from these other candidates, and how much of a frontrunner he's erecting himself as.

if he badly beats biden, it's going to open questions about the south, but he certainly hasn't demonstrated that he's challenging biden, yet. he will obviously need to. and, it's not at all clear that he can.

for now, don't be surprised if buttigieg does manage to coalesce a lot of support in new hampshire, even as sanders does well, too. they won't really get into one-on-one's until the field narrows, a few states down. but, that could be the end result, here.

klobuchar & warren both had to break through, in these early states. they're not going to break through in south carolina. if they poll below 10% in the face of voter preference elevating sanders & buttigieg, they're going to need to face the facts and get out.

and, then it's open warfare between biden & buttigieg for who gets to hold the center against sanders, and his ridiculous amounts of money, and all the things he can buy with it.

so, i'm not going to make a prediction, so much as i'm going to erect a function: as more centrist support coalesces around buttigieg, he will pull further ahead of sanders, notwithstanding fishy last minute absentee ballots that tip the race back to sanders when nobody's paying attention. if warren makes a strong case, or he produces a gaffe, or he just can't close the deal overall, you could see a small sanders win. but, with each passing day, as he builds more momentum, the size and likelihood of a buttigieg win increases, until he gets to a maximum point where the other centrists, with the exception of biden, are convincingly defeated and need to go home.

then, everything evaporates as none of this matters in nevada, unless nevadans decided that it should, which they might. biden is supposed to be electable...

if buttigieg can get to 30 at the primary expense of biden, i'd expect to see the fundamentals in the race start to shift.