so, what's going to happen today?

even the last minute polls appear to have had buttigieg in them. we have no idea. all i can give you is my gut.

- i think that sanders will be competitive everywhere, except alabama.
- i think that both buttigieg and klobuchar will see their voters mostly move to warren, and sanders will get a bigger bump than biden, mostly in rural counties. this could be a 10+ point bump for warren in some places.
- steyer, on the other hand, will see almost all of his voters go back to biden, and this will be a 10 point bump in some places.
- however, i do not expect warren to win any states; that 10+ point bump will be lucky to get her to 20%, in her best states.
- i do not expect bloomberg to win any states, either. however, i do expect him to cut deeply into biden's totals.
- i do not expect biden to be competitive in the west or the north. he will be competitive in the south, and he will win some states, but his delegate total will be severely hampered by bloomberg, and sanders may come up the middle in a few places.

anybody trying to be more specific than this is full of shit.

and, it's a problem because we can't independently verify the results. they could cheat very badly, and we wouldn't know.