from what i can tell, trump isn't fundamentally altering anything in the relative trade balances. he put steep tariffs on almost all of east asia, and also put steep tariffs on europe. he put lower tariffs on canada, mexico and most of latin america. that would means that north and south america remain preferred trading partners, relatively speaking.

it's really just a giant, huge consumption tax hike.

and it should result in subsequent giant, huge inflationary effects, although it remains to be seen if it can remain localized in america or not. canada is inevitably going to get hit with the inflation.

there is some possibility of this going zimbabwe-like, but i don't think it's that high. the fear is if the inflation starts feeding back. if that happens, it gets out of control.