listen: i don't doubt the vaccine will work, or relatively well, anyways. i've yet to see any really good evidence that you can catch this disease repeatedly, so if we can create effective antibodies on contact with the virus then we should be able to stimulate them with a vaccine, as well - it's the same thing. but, that's just the point.

even the best vaccines - and we shouldn't expect that of this one - will kill some people, due to a variety of causes. vaccines are generally safe, but they're doing all of this testing for a reason - they're not completely safe.

my argument is simply that you need to look at it comparatively: there is some risk from the vaccine, and some risk from the virus. if you're old or vulnerable, you should get vaccinated, clearly. but, if you're young and healthy, what is more dangerous - the vaccine or the virus? and a sober, quantitative analysis will demonstrate that, for many people, it's safer to get sick and fight it off.

but, you shouldn't have exaggerated expectations of the vaccine, either. 

it won't exactly "wear off". but, given that the virus is here to stay, constant vaccination may actually produce a feedback loop: the more that people get vaccinated, the more the need to get vaccinated repeatedly, to adjust to a changing virus. thankfully, the virus seems stable, at least - so far. i wonder if distancing hasn't made it more contagious, but it hasn't changed to fight our attempts to stop it, yet. but, we haven't pushed it. a major vaccination campaign could change that and make it that much more deadly - in which case the vaccine stops working, and we're back to the drawing board.

so, what you should expect is something that is mostly safe and works moderately well. you shouldn't expect a magic potion that will set everything back to normal. even after being vaccinated, the vulnerable will remain vulnerable - and some will be so vulnerable that they can't even get vaccinated at all. the vaccine will certainly increase these peoples' chances if they catch the virus, but these people will need to continue to quarantine, as the virus continues to spread - and potentially strengthen - amongst young, healthy, vaccinated people.

some years, the flu vaccine is barely 70% effective.

it will help, but it's not a magic spell. be realistic...

so, i'm not saying it's not going to work. i remain convinced that masks don't work, and that i'd win a court battle over it. vaccines, though, should work. what i'm saying is i don't want a vaccine for a weak virus - it's not worth it. i want to catch it and fight it off.