Thursday, October 1, 2015

this really is remarkably refreshing, after so many years of absolute nonsense coming out of the leaders of all of the nato countries.

it's not whether he's right or wrong, it's just the idea of *not* being blindly anti-russian at every possible opportunity.

canada used to be very good at that.

www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/10/01/chretien-says-putin-s-help-in-syria-should-be-welcomed-by-canada_n_8230114

Mike Kulyk
russia INVADED crimea and now eastern ukraine !!! can that be construed as 'anti russian' ?

jessica amber murray
whatever the facts in the situation, slapping sanctions down and demonizing them doesn't accomplish anything. constructive solutions come in respectful dialogue.

the sanctions on russia have made them more aggressive, not less aggressive. since the sanctions were put down, the west has lost iran permanently due to russian strategic manoeuvring and has probably lost the window of opportunity that it had to influence events in syria. it is probably also in the process of losing iraq and lebanon to russian influence. it has led to indian accession to the shanghai co-operation agreement. neither the saudis nor the israelis are friends of america; rather, american power serves to keep them in check. the failure of the sanctions is being felt, with both of them looking elsewhere. it has also strained relations with parts of europe very badly, and made china even more suspicious of american motives. in short, the sanctions have been an absolute, unmitigated disaster. they've unravelled decades of carefully put together us policy, rewinding us back to before kissinger.

whatever you think of the russian actions in ukraine, the way to take them out is not to put sanctions on them - it is to negotiate with them. sanctions are an act of war. one must expect the proper response to a declaration of war.

if canada was functioning in the role that it normally functions in, i might hazard a guess that these sanctions would not have happened at all.

but, i need you to realize the scale of this.

the decision to place sanctions on russia last year may be the single largest strategic error in the history of the united states, up to this point. i'm certainly having difficulty thinking of anything else.

and, this gets to what i've been saying about mulcair for weeks and why i cannot vote for him.

his argument is actually that harper needs to get tougher on sanctions. put that in context. who's he trying to appeal to, here? it's the worst possible position he could take. 

Sean Gillhoolley
Russia is wrong on Ukraine, and shame on the west for not protecting that nation as the security agreement we have with Ukraine states we will. We agreed to that so that Ukraine would give up its nukes, which they did. I bet they regret doing that. If they still had nukes Russia would never have even considered invasion. That being said, I am glad to have Russia help in the middle east. I know they aren't in league with radical Islamists, which is more than I can say for the anti-Asaad rebels, who seem to blend easily among the ISIL folk.

jessica amber murray
well, i'm not going to deny that putin seized crimea, as some others have, because he clearly did. that is reality. but, it is also reality that it was in response to a us-backed coup, which kind of changes the game. on top of that, the budapest memorandum also existed within the context of a nato promise not to expand east of germany, which was broken in the 90s.

i don't want to take sides on this; my argument is really that taking sides, or at least doing so uncritically (we obviously have to and should want to take nato's side, in the end, if we have to), is counter-productive in the context of both sides breaking all kinds of agreements. canada should be acting as a mediator, not a cheerleader. the narrative near the supposed "end" of the cold war was all about mutual trust, which is something we helped build and something that the russians really took very seriously (maybe too seriously..), partially on our insistence, for quite a long time. canada has historically acted in a mediation role for the simple reason that building that mutual trust is in our national interest. the reason we refused co-operation in the missile shield is that it would have debris fall directly on edmonton.

an honest mediator needs to acknowledge that there's a strong argument that the united states created the problem and put pressure on the neo-cons (who are still running things...) to back off. but, it doesn't help to gloat about it or point fingers with a superior attitude.

it seems clear to me - i can't prove this, for obvious reasons - that the coup in kiev set off a russian war simulation that's currently being played out. that is, that the russians are acting as though world war three has already begun. and, worse, the americans are being consistently caught off guard - indicating that their own simulations are deeply lacking. that necessitates that talks begin immediately, before things get out of hand.

in the short term, having the russians step in to syria should act as a deterrent for further escalation. and, i think that's what chretien was actually getting at, in his typically cryptic smartass sort of way.

a russian-backed coup in mexico, or a chinese-backed coup in canada, are things that the american military has contingency plans for. if that somehow happens, that plan will be set in motion. none of us know exactly what it says. but, i'd suspect that an immediate occupation of certain areas of canada would be the first part of it. further, such a plan would be extremely difficult to stop or otherwise reverse, once it's set in motion.

it strains the imagination for me to think that russia does not have similar contingency plans in case of a us-backed coup in kiev. the reason the annexation of crimea happened almost bloodlessly (or literally; i'm not aware of any casualties) is no doubt because the russians had that plan sitting on the shelf for decades. it was just a question of activating it. and, these other things that are happening have no doubt been written out for a very long time. the russians have had "legitimate interests" in syria since the rise of arab socialism, which they were themselves instrumental in orchestrating.

one would think that the americans would realize this, but that's not at all clear to me, unless it's some kind of trick to make it look like they're incompetent, and then hit them by surprise. but, that's not a good scenario, either.

they're on the brink. they need to sit down and talk. historically, we've been useful at getting them to sit down and talk..

Nathan Weather
The only thing wrong about Ukraine is the historical example it sets: the only country to ever voluntarily give up nuclear weapons got invaded and lost territory. But look at the demographics - it wasn't really Ukranian - that was just an accident of where the Soviets drew the lines.

jessica amber murray
regardless of the arguments, and there are some from the perspective of the russian national interest, it's still an infringement of international law. when somebody kills somebody in self-defense, we may lesson their sentence but we still prosecute them. call it an infringement of the rule of international law in the second-degree if you must, but don't turn a blind eye to it. it's still serious. it can't be normalized.

that said, this is done, and likely irreversible. but we can't just be saying that this is ok. rather, we should be looking at the root causes, getting people sitting down and making sure agreements are worked out.

it's just that this is a lot harder now, because the russians have lost the trust, however naive it was, that they'd been holding on to since gorbachev. the kind of intermediary power that canada once was is really absolutely necessary. somebody has to step up...

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Paul Smith
Wow, never thought that the Libs would welcome Putin into the Syrian conflict. Any Lib responses here????

jessica amber murray
i'm very far to the left of the liberals, but if you understand the nature of the conflict (which is essentially a saudi invasion of syria under the assumption that the russians are done as a great power), it follows that a reassertion of russian power in a traditional russian proxy is probably the fastest way to end the fighting.

canada does not have an interest in the outcome of the war, only an interest to have it end as soon as possible to stop it from costing us money.