Wednesday, October 28, 2026

but are these events independent?

yes.

i have been arguing for years that statewide elections should always be modeled as independent from each other and that the current status quo - to model them as dependent events and use conditional probabilities - is a massive error. i have also identified this error as a major cause of polling misses.

somebody might come by here and think i made a mistake. i would aggressively argue otherwise - i think the consensus position is a mistake.

i have a pretty good track record. i make some mistakes. we'll see if i'm right (again) or not soon enough.
if the democrats win in michigan, that's a hold, not a pickup.

the best chance the democrats have of flipping a seat is north carolina.

i would not consider iowa, kansas, texas or alaska to be seriously in play.

ohio and maine both remain distant longshots for the democrats.

so even if they somehow get north carolina, ohio and maine, they still are in the minority. the republicans still control the senate.

let's say north carolina is about 55%, ohio is about 45% and maine is about 40%. those are probably overestimates. 

.55*.45*.4 = 0.099, to start.

then, they'd also have to hold michigan and georgia. let's peg that at 55% and 65% respectively.

.099*.55*.65 = 0.0353925

then, let's say alaska is 30% and iowa is 25%.

.0353925*.3 = 0.01061775
0.01061775*.25 = 0.0026544375

giving the democrats a 4% chance that they can get within striking distance to start is a fair analysis.

the chance that they're going to actually win is practically zero.
are the democrats actually going to stop being wretched for ten minutes and manage to win a congressional election?

in a word: no.

the best argument i've seen is that trump is scared because he's doing rallies in safe seats, which suggests internal polling is bad, but a better explanation is that trump just likes doing rallies. it's his idea of a good time and he'd rather do a rally with a big crowd, meaning he'd rather do it in a safe seat. he's not concerned about saving resources. he's not focusing on seats he wants to flip. he's just going out and having a good time and wants to surround himself with people that like him when he does. that's donald trump.

rallies don't convince voters in local elections. you have to go out and knock on doors and talk to people. the issues are very local. trump is not doing that in having these rallies where he talks about federal issues outside of the scope of local or congressional elections.

we have been here before with the media making very bad projections based on a poor understanding of polling math.

the math on the democrats flipping the senate is magical thinking. it is far more likely that trump will get a functional boost in power as some critics are pushed out and replaced by loyalists. the republicans mght even win some seats and increase their majority. it might essentially wash out and the democrats might peel a seat or something. for the democrats to actually flip the senate would require several independent low probabilty events happening at the same time. .3^5 = 0.00243. 

that is 0.243%. not 24.3%. not 2.43%. 

0.243%.

it's extremely unlikely.

the house is a tossup because it's extremely complicated. you cannot apply national polls to the house. don't even pretend. don't imagine it. don't delude yourself.

the body is also brutally gerrymandered.

the democrats ought to have a higher likelihood of winning the house but they don't. 

so, my official projection is:

senate:
- republican hold or low pick up is most likely
- minimal democratic swing without a flip is less likely
- democrat flip is not likely

house:
- flip a coin
i strongly support the cbam and have argued for years (for decades) that canada should adopt a similar border mechanism on imports, especially on imports from the united states, as well as from china. canadian companies that are unable or unwilling to upgrade their equipment and remain competitive in a global market by holding to dirty production practices should fail and die, and be killed with fire, and have a stake put through their face to make sure they can't come back. 

this machine has got to be destroyed.

just call her melanie duplessis.

perhaps she should focus on her own constituents and go after bombardier or alcan for offshoring jobs instead. 

it's just an opportunistic political attack for personal gain. it has no economic or legal basis. that type of behaviour bothers me. canada needs to uphold it's principles, or it has nothing. we are nothing - nobody - without our values.
it's relatively clear that mark carney is a full-throated supporter of canadian colonialism and the colonial state. he sees indigenous rights as an annoyance standing in the way of capital. he does not respect the land agreements, but seeks to find ways to maximize resource extraction and the continued exploitation of the land. doing away with the treaties, with the case law, with the constitution, with international legal obligations and with the indian act altogether would suit him just fine. the indians can just go get a fucking job in extractive industry. that would be good for investors, who are the people that matter.

reading some introductory texts by marx and engels would help understand how carney sees the process. the natives should not just be forced to drop their opposition to extractive industry, but should become the workers/slaves in the extractive process. when their land is taken from them, and they can no longer support themselves from it, they will be forced to sell their labour to survive and become slaves in the capitalist system. it's basic capitalist development. the indian act gives them a way out of being enslaved by canadian colonialism.

to mark carney, freedom and democracy only apply to white settlers of european and christian or islamic origin. it doesn't extend to indigenous peoples.
the canadian government has been trying to abolish the indian act for decades, which would do away with indigenous status. broadly speaking, indigenous people consider this to be an attack on their status rights and don't support it.

i have some indigenous ancestry but i prefer to identify as scandinavian. i do not speak for indigenous peoples or want to identify as metis. i don't support a one drop rule.

i do support the rights of indigenous people to struggle against statism, but it's because i'm an anarchist, not because i'm indigenous. there's a long tradition on the libertarian left to look at indigenous culture as a model to build on, rather than an anachronism to do away with. i strongly disagree with all statist models on this point.

that said, no law can or should be trapped in time. laws have to be amended and changed to reflect changing realities.

i would support a consultative process to amend the indian act (including updating it's name) to take the concerns of indigenous communities into account. i would not support abolishing it. 

i do not believe that a referendum proposing abolishing the indian act would pass, or even get close to passing, if response was restricted to status indians. it is a policy crafted by the colonial state to do away with the indian, not an idea that indigenous people are asking the government to enforce. rather, indigenous groups are seeking a stronger codification of indigenous rights. while they do have some constitutional protection in canada, abolishing the indian act would make that codification process harder. 

it is impossible to miss the suggestion that the intent of abolishing the indian act is to undermine the ongoing codification process and return to a policy of official or unofficial assimilation, which was never fully abandoned.
i would again call on canadian doctors to ignore the legislation and facilitate canadian individuals in asserting their constitutional right to self-ownership, as upheld in multiple court decisions, in requesting suicide on demand, for any reason, whatsoever. 

it doesn't matter why. this is a wrong-headed approach to the issue.

the state has no right to generate bounds or otherwise interfere in a decision that is made between an individual and their care provider. s. 7 self-ownership rights take these decisions out of the hands of the state and put them in the hands of the individual, instead.

the bill is an abuse of power and an overreach of state oversight on individual sovereignty.

there is no economic theory that argues that hiking interest rates will reduce energy costs. this will have no effect on inflation, but it will lead to increases in economic rents.

the reason we're supposed to have a central bank that takes these decisions out of the hands of governments is to tie interest rates to monetary policy and prevent decisions like this one. the policy of central bank independence has failed.

i would support abolishing legislation that removes democratic control over rate decisions and returning it to the control of the legislature.

the government is addressing the recession with a spending bill.

this woman is incompetent and she should not be in an important role. she's trying to approach an economic issue as though it's a political issue, because that's what she's capable of understanding - gotcha-type politics. this is an inappropriate discourse in a democracy.

she needs to be thrown out of cabinet, immediately. she's in way over her head and she suffers from a fallacy of arrogance. she's not mentally able to do her job.

this is an utterly stupid political attack that makes her look like a retard when what the situation calls for is increased government spending. she's embarrassing herself and the country in the process and should be shut down.

whatever problems of factual accuracy that the maga idiots might have in their arguments, the fact that contemporary liberalism has become openly apologetic for the worst kinds of fascism is probably worse.

it's hard to decide.

but rfk is basically right, even if he gets every single detail wrong, while the liberals are wrong in every way in their response - factually, historically, morally.
this is a dissenting view of the video i posted, in that it pinpoints different causes for the decline of science in islam, which started around the year 1000, and was long over by the fall of baghdad in 1258.

the reaction from bourgeois liberals is predictable and as bad if not worse. kennedy and trump are morons and their comments reflect it, but the basic point (which is most often attributed to dawkins in popular media) is unquestionably based in objective, demonstrable historical and contemporary fact, it's not some kind of white supremacist talking point. that liberal argument is sheer and utter idiocy; it is based in contemptible ignorance and overwhelming stupidity.

i would counter that the opposite idea - that insisting that the muslim world is not currently lost in a dark age that it needs some serious help getting out of - is fascist apologia based in a concept of alternative facts. 

next five cds are...

antonio carlos jobim - stone flower (1970) 
billy cobham - spectrum (1973)
claude debussy - la mer / nocturnes (1905/1900)
do make say think - winter hymn secret hymn country hymn (2003)  
gustav holst - the planets / ralph vaughn williams - tallis fantasia (1918/1919)   <---- current start point
====
i mother earth - scenery and fish (1996)
man or astroman? - experiment zero (1996)
mike oldfield - ommadawn (1975)
ministry - the mind is a terrible thing to taste (1989) <---current end point
my blood valentine - loveless (1991)
====
pelican - city of echoes (2007)
pink floyd - the piper at the gates of dawn (1967)
pink floyd - atom heart mother (1970)
pink floyd - meddle (1972)
plateau - iceolator (2002)
======
sister machine gun - metropolis (1997)
skinny puppy - cleanse, fold and manipulate (1987)
sonic youth - sister (1987)
spiral beach - ball (2007)
ssris - effeminate godzilla-sized windchimes (2010)
============
swans - omniscience (1992)
talking heads - remain in light (1980)
the black heart procession - 2 (1999)
the chicago underground - flamethrower (2000)
the cure - disintegration (1989)

those are just the first ten 15 20 25 cds out of the boxes. i'll be updating in groups of five as they come out and onto the shelves

(skipping for now, will come back)

blogger music lists for existing cds (rebuilds):
discogs list (first 100 of many more to come): https://drive.google.com/file/d/1nNhi2Z4vRr0hEP5OiK-6xxZP1G_b9OBW/view

the music web - starting with miles davis - is going to have a new page at the deathtokoalas blog. the point is that i want to use the timeline feature so it's likely to lose the scrolling aspect. or i might design a new blog for it. 
i'm no advocate of the muslim brotherhood, but islam's problems started long, long before 1928. they were already in irreversible decline at the sack of baghdad in 1258. the false narrative of a "golden age" is just typical conservative revisionism. it has about as much value in terms of actual history as "christian europe" does.

the video explains that the collapse of science in islamic societies (not just amongst arabs, but also in iran, the levant and north africa, and whilst taking note that the "arab scientists" are almost always actually ethnic kurds writing in the arabic script and almost never ethnic arabs) is due to a fundamentalist movement that is almost as old as islam itself to reject reason in favour of revelation. this was a movement to reject greece, reject rome and most importantly reject babylon. if the golden age narrative has any value, it's to describe a babylonian renaissance. during the period that muslim revisionism calls a golden age, this fundamentalist movement was enforced with violence by the muslim pope, the caliph, in ways that were similar to papal fundamentalism in the european dark ages. the difference in development was in truth not so great, with the caveat that the arabs inherited all of the books when the empires fell, and the europeans inherited none of them. they had to go to egypt to read a book because the italians stupidly exported everything to africa. then, they forgot how to read, and how to build. the arabs still had the books, so it wasn't quite as bad, but the region was still in decline, and for all of the same reasons. so-called golden age arabia was a massive decline in everything describable from the far better days of byzantine rome.

the correct argument is that muslim society, unlike european society, never emerged from the dark ages, but rather wants to remarket the dark ages as a golden age. it's actually highly trumpian! there was no muslim renaissance, and the fascist governments in place in the middle east, who have been supported by anglo-american militaries, almost all of whom have banned the muslim brotherhood, have continued to do everything they can to prevent the renaissance from happening and keep the islamic world locked in the dark ages.

the islamic world needs a mass revolution, and while the muslim brotherhood is not the type of revolution i would support, they are at least fighting the fascist governments that are preventing the society from evolving. to blame islamic stagnation on the muslim brotherhood is laughably wrong, to the point of being borderline statist propaganda from the fascists running riyadh or cairo.
that's right. this is a climate change driven forecast. it is not an el nino driven forecast.

an el nino forecast would have higher temperatures in the west. the forecast is calling for higher temperatures in the north and east. that is most likely to be caused by solar effects and greenhouse gasses, not by el nino.

the el nino is itself a localized effect of global warming, which produces local and not global side effects.


you can do the math, it's simple enough - unless you're a judge in ontario's court system. then it's too complicated for you to understand.

el nino is + 4, at sea surface level. it's not that much around it. the atlantic is also warmer than normal.

but it's +10 degrees in the north.

that means that the difference in temperatures went from y-x to (y+4 - (x+10)) = y-x + 4 -10 = y-x-6. that makes it harder for a polar vortex to develop. as that +10 inches up even further, the difference comes down even more, and the polar vortex goes away.

it's a very simple argument but it's the basic point that the models forecast - the faster increase in temperatures in the arctic stops the polar vortex from forming. instead, then, what you get is cold air that flops around and incrementally gets eaten by the warmer air. temperature always flows from hot to cold.

when entropy wins, winter loses.

here in southern canada, you still get shorter days (which max out in december, not february) and some amount of cold air will sink but it will have decreasing effects.

meanwhile, in texas, where the effects of the seasons are less, and trump just idiotically cancelled methane restrictions, they will increasingly get no reprieve from the humidity at all. if the polar vortex gets shut down, there's nothing preventing the heat from building. if there is no cold air sinking from canada, the changes in daylight are not enough for it to get cold. you could see cat 5 hurricanes and 100 degree weather in january.
in theory, warmer temperatures at the equator (caused by el nino or something else) should strengthen the polar vortex because the temperature gradient is higher.

in fact, that's not happening because both phenomena are consequences of the strengthening greenhouse effect.

Tuesday, October 27, 2026

this is a video done by an iranian (i think) living in the west that addresses the issue directly. he usually focuses on geopolitics. his videos are of varying accuracy in terms of conclusions, but he is a good researcher.

this is worth watching.




it's possible that the indigenous algerian berbers had a story about their aristocracy arising from the ocean. it's a common meme in history that may have an ancient origin in the pre-neolithic danubian culture. other places it shows up in are

- the merovingian franks believed they were cimmerians. they also believed their aristocracy were fishmen that crawled out from the ocean. there is evidence of substantive western iranian migration into france in the migration period. the french name alain, and a spate of place names derived from it, is iranian in origin and the result of iranian migration into france.
- the sumerians, which probably spoke a pre-proto-indoeuropean dialect and may have origins in the black sea or danube river area, also believed their aristocracy came from the oceans.

this sumerian theory of fishman origin has been presented as a crude evolutionary theory, which is a bit of a stretch.

i have no supporting evidence, but it's possible that a similar theory was co-opted by muslim colonists in north africa and converted into a story about a syrian swimming across the sea. it's the same kind of syncretism that defines european christianity, but we've mostly figured it out through critical analysis, and they've mostly been ordered to submit and obey and not think it through. in fact, there's a convincing argument that the holy grail myth is based on a christianization of the merovingian mythology, to the idea of jesus' bloodline landing in marseilles (an ancient greek port built to export celtic goods, like salt and tin, back to greece).
do arabs do science?

well, there's a lot of arabs out there. there's a number of concepts of what an arab is out there; genetic, cultural, linguistic, imperial, colonial. there's a lot of science out there. there's been a lot of time passed since the plague ravaged the levant, a major war between rome and persia concluded and, when the dust settled, and in the absence of reliable historical narratives, the region emerges with an arab identity. the reality is we're not entirely sure what happened. the objective facts are the plague and the war, the rest is really in the realm of mythology. the muslim texts don't show up for a few hundred years after the roman nakbah in the region. the gap makes building history impossible. there's an extremely convincing argument that the new emperors in syria basically made the whole thing up c. 950 ish and that the historiography is 100% fictional up to the point, to the point of mohammed being effectively a plagiarized theft of jesus, who never even existed at all.

they call it a golden age, but it's a myth. the arab world emerged from it's own dark age with a series of mythological narratives after the collapse of charlemagne's empire. the mythology says they had a good time, and maybe they did - baths, book burnings, polygamy, even open homosexuality. hey. but it's all fictional.

if you don't believe me, go swim from syria to algeria. go do it. i'll bring the stop clock. that was probably a joke! it probably got lost as a joke and converted to history. the things like that - the white horse to heaven, which was stolen from the story of elijah in the book of kings, the swimming across the mediterranean, which is obviously ported greek or carthaginian mythology, etc - are so silly that they expose themselves as myth immediately. but the reality, which is less accepted or discussed, is that there's not a word in the historiography that's any better than this, and this situation of unreliable history in the muslim world persists until el cid. none of it is reliable. the byzantines were not better, either. there are lengthy periods of byzantine history where the official history states the history was rewritten. like, it's a historical fact that the historical record was erased and reconstructed.

the egyptians would erase people from their hieroglyphs. it wasn't rare.

so, it's an open question how seriously the history is intended to be taken in the first place and whether the religious lost the plot somewhere. if you go way back, people were certainly superstitious, but did anybody believe the story of elijah or of going to heaven on a horse? did anybody believe that god spoke to moses and gave him the ten commandments, that god spoke to mohammad and gave him the koran or that god spoke to joseph smith? the greek mythology is fun! it was supposed to be fun, and we didn't lose the plot. we read it as fun, today. did we lose the plot somewhere along the way with the judaic faiths? 

is this actually kant's fucking fault? did they get it before kant decided history was perfect truth?

it's just another reason to prefer indo-european religion over judeo-christian-muslim religion.

so we don't know how it happened - not truly, not honestly - but the map just changed a bit before the year 1000. we woke up in a roman nightmare. the crusades start about the same time.

in that 1000 years, have there been some arab scientists? have there been kurdish scientists in baghdad that spoke and wrote in arabic? or spanish scholars, many carthaginian-jewish? i mean, sure.

the culture, however, was and remains brutally, brutally repressive.

so, do arabs do science? it's a big target. it's hard to miss, in absolute terms.

i get the impression that somebody is trying to quote dawkins, and that wasn't dawkins' argument. dawkins, who i would describe as a liberal in a hurry, and certainly not as a maga conservative, was drawing attention to the statistics. do arabs do science in aggregate? when they do do science, are they fighting against cultural norms? are they fighting against government censorship? are they putting their lives at risk?

there's no genetic reason why arabs ought to be disinterested in science. arabs ought to be as capable and interested in science as any other group, if raised in comparable environments.

however, there's a few reasons why they are culturally less inclined to science and why the religion makes them less likely to succeed as scientists. this has led to a statistically lower percentage of arabs winning nobel prizes and other awards than other groups. that's empirically true. it's simple math built on a basic observation. that was dawkins' point. 

it may be difficult to tell from looking at his unkempt appearance and his visibly poor personal hygiene, which has him transporting bacteria across michigan on his face, call it the el sayad e coli express, but the democratic candidate in michgan was at one point a doctor. i don't question his credentials. i may point out that doctors are not empirical scientists. but i would expect that a doctor is less likely to fall into these traps than a general member of the arab population. to the extent that critiques of islam and science have merit, this guy might not be the best data point. there's consequently a valid concern about the application of stereotypes and discrimination. individual members of a population don't necessarily display the characteristics of those populations that exist in majority proportions.

the following are reasons why arab culture and the religion of islam make arabs less likely to become scientists:

- the authoritarianism
- the rejection of dissent and critical thought
- the philosophical preference for analytic philosophy, and a continuing aristotlian rut, over empirical observation, and the subsequent minimization of the scientific method

as many have pointed out, these issues can be addressed. we got over them in the west; or we thought we did. creeping catholicism, which trump has aligned himself with, is threatening to topple the enlightenment. we might be competing for most ignorant monkey with the arabs before too long, while the chinese finish what they started with genghis khan. 

i'm hoping for communism instead but i'm no fucking clairvoyant. i'm not fooling anyone with no cosmic debris.

i'd call on dawkins to speak for himself. he's still alive. he is capable of articulating himself.

the comments are clearly racist and he shouldn't be taken out of context. to the extent that they are statistically valid, this individual might not be an appropriately representative sample. stereotypes can be silly and fun, but they can also be damaging and hateful.

to defend myself, this is what i was getting at when i argued that michigan will never elect an arab. trump might repulse a fair number of people with these comments, but michigan is actually a very segregated and very racist state. there's a lot of people in michigan that aren't going to find his comments revolting at all.

this isn't my fight and i'm not interested in it. i would have rather seen the democrats run a different candidate than have to go through this. i don't want to defend this guy against racist attacks. i don't like his culture much, either.
in 2026, people magazine is apparently a gay male lifestyle rag.

i promise you that a poll of straight women would decide that this is the most disgustingly ugly gay man they've ever seen by a margin of well over 80%.

i got a little done last night, but it was odds and ends, and planning things out, and i never really got started.

i should finish tonight for sure.
the bankers and conservatives want you to think france has some kind of debt problem. right.

rather, they seem to be insufficiently taxing their substantive wealth. i mean, this is france. it's a very rich country. the idea that it's drowning in debt it can't pay off is nonsense.

the way the eu is structured is a problem because it neither allows for sovereign debt nor does it allow for wealth redistribution. i've been careful about commenting on the bourgeois narrative around this, because i have a lot of criticism about how the eu operates. the entire media narrative from all directions has no grounding in facts or reality, so it's extremely difficult to find a way into it in terms of finding a position to criticize. france has enough economic capacity that it should be able to run larger deficits without concerning itself about it, but the structure of the eu places artificial restrictions on debt financing government budgets. the winner is private debt holders, many of them located overseas, that get interest payments from french taxpayers as some kind of foreign tribute on what should be sovereign debt. it's unsustainable, but the solution is reforming the eu, not austerity (as macron is enforcing or le pen wants to continue) or "cancelling the debt", as melenchon is running on, but can't actually do. 

in the short run, until the eu can be reformed to allow for greater budget deficits and more wealth redistribution, the only remaining solution is localized tax increases (to pay for out of control war spending in africa and generous handouts (or loans) to ukraine, which could be cut to save substantive amounts of money upfront very easily), but the parliament is blocking it. it indicates an intentional desire to redistribute wealth upwards.

there's plenty of money for war, there's plenty of money for "foreign aid", there's plenty of money for interest payments to foreigners and there's plenty of wealth that could be taxed. the narrative that there's no money for schools or pensions is consequently a rather blatantly transparent lie being enforced by the banking class, which the media is faithfully parroting.

that said, i'm not convinced that the schools are underfunded to begin with, but the money to hike spending is there, if they do make that choice. don't believe that france is too poor to pay for it's kids or elderly. that's absurd.
the israeli election is a mess.

likud (netanyahu's party) won the most seats by a large margin, but neither bloc is anywhere close to a majority. there is something illegitimate about a minority party that lost the election taking power. but somebody needs to get 10-12 more seats. somebody needs to blink.

neither block is left or even centrist. they're both very conservative blocks, and it's more a question of personality than politics. for that reason, the most correct outcome is for netanyahu to stay in power, because he still won the election, and there's no mandate to reverse that. somebody in the opposing block - probably lieberman's party - is going to have to flip.

essentially, what happened is that netanyahu threw lieberman out of the coalition for being an ass (opposing a ceasefire) and now he can't get back to a majority without him, but neither can the opposition. netanyahu and lieberman are going to have to work their shit out. 
it turns out "ai" is a good excuse to block people that use adblockers.

ai doesn't bother me that much, but cloudfare has thoroughly destroyed the internet. i was surfing at higher speeds in the 90s. it's worse than uac.
this is media sensationalism at it's worst and is based in denialist science about "planetary waves" that isn't explained to the reader. it's the worst kind of click bait. i would recommend the government run weather service over the weather network, as it doesn't engage in this kind of free market profiteering bullshit.

the increase in solar radiation that broke up last winter's polar vortex, in conjunction with the increase in carbon in the atmosphere (more concentrated in the north and south) was very intense and led to a higher level of disorganization than normal. long term climate change models predict the near to total destruction of the polar vortex as a yearly phenomenon. the blasts of cold air that we've been experiencing over the last few years are a last gasp of the arctic, and a symptom of an arctic that is ultimately collapsing under the pressure of an increased greenhouse effect. there's no ice caps on venus at all. 

every time the polar vortex collapses in the summer, there's a possibility it won't be able to reform.

the development of the polar vortex requires an immense change in energy that is working against thermodynamics, and a natural increase in entropy. it's really something that shouldn't happen, and it only happens because the sudden decrease in light starting after sept 21st leads to such an immense plunge at such a fast rate. the polar night hits a peak of darkness, and an absence of sunlight, at the end of december.

as the greenhouse effect traps more and more heat into the atmosphere, the polar vortex will become less and less likely to form and will in the end not form at all. when we get to that point, it will no longer come apart in the arctic winter and the hemispheric spring, and we will no longer get blasts of cold air falling south at the end of the polar night, as a consequence of the sun's energy returning to the poles. 

in the long term, once all of the cold has been warmed up past a certain point, winter won't happen anymore at all. in the short term, when the polar vortex is only beginning to fail, what will happen is something similar to what you're seeing right now - decreases in sunlight after sept 21st will lead to colder temperatures, but the increased greenhouse effect will prevent the polar vortex from forming. the result is more dispersion of less intense cold air, with increasing decreases in intensity and dispersion, until the polar vortex ceases altogether.

you're consequently actually seeing the beginning of the end of the polar vortex, but the high profile collapses have been signalling this has been on it's way for a while. this is not surprising at all. it's a clear consequence of the climate change models, and we've been watching it build up for years.

the first year where the polar vortex does not form due to a strengthened greenhouse effect will be a major tipping point for the planet's climate. it is probably not this year. however, the trends are clearly pointing in that direction and it might be sooner than anybody imagines.

but the capitalists want to sell you on an ice age or something. click. click. click. buy. buy. buy.
the result in mississaugua, which is a sprawling suburb of toronto full of 6 or 7 figure mansions, was due to two right-wing women splitting the vote. this is a city that has been run by conservative women for decades.

turnout was also 30%.

i would expect that mississaugua will elect another conservative woman at it's soonest opportunity. and she'll probably be white.
i'm also sick and fucking annoyed of this idea of boycotting israel.

i want to turn the tables and request that broad swathes of society organize total boycotts against "palestine" and against any individual, entity, body or group that supports "palestine". supporting "palestinian statehood" should be seen as completely unacceptable and aggressively cancelled, from this point. 

do not engage in any sort of commerce, debate or interaction with any entity that supports "palestine". completely, totally boycott them until they cease to exist.
when the media nowadays talks about "foreign interference" the unstated implication is that this is some kind of bad thing because countries have "sovereignty". i dunno where this nonsense came from. it's some kind of property right of a localized elite to enslave their own population.

"go enslave your own people. you have no right to interfere with how i enslave mine.".

that's a bunch of bullshit. if it's in a state's self-interest to interfere in the affairs of another state, it should aggressively do so, and tell them to fuck off if they don't like it. i believe that i have a right to interfere in the affairs of any foreign state that i choose, if it is in my self-interest, and i won't be told otherwise. go fuck yourselves. the only sovereignty i recognize is the sovereignty of the individual to make choices in it's individual self-interest.

i remember reading books written in the 50s or even in the 90s when the perspective was entirely different. it was just understood that everybody spies on each other. nobody gave it a second thought. it was just a fact of reality.

when did "foreign interference" become something to get upset about rather than a triviality to shrug off?
the low vacancy rate (i don't care about buying houses. i'm poor. complaints about difficulties entering the housing market or housing prices in general are completely irrelevant and of no interest to me. they are only of any minimal interest in the sense that cheap new houses would reduce pressure on the rental market, but people want to move from their parents' 4 bedroom houses to their own. they don't want starter houses and don't understand how equity works.) in canada is not due to immigration or supply. this is a false dichotomy.

the low vacancy rate is due to high immigration and low supply.

it would be nice to build more apartments, but the political system is stacked against it, which is why it's not happening. it isn't not happening due to an insufficient supply of labour; that has nothing to do with it. it's not happening because single-family property owners elect city council members that block it. rich people hate renters and don't want them in their wards. the absence of affordable apartment buildings is because rich property owners don't want affordable apartments, not because we don't have enough people to build them. rather, more immigration at the lower end of the market just places more stress on the market, and leads to higher rents, so rich property owners that survive by extracting rent will continue to dump more poor people on the market in order to maximize their rentier extraction, and then argue they can't build more housing because there's not enough labour. that's a myth. it's false. what is true is that the propertied class wants higher rents, so it supports high immigration levels and opposes the construction of new housing, to increase demand and restrict supply. there's no crisis of labour when it comes to building new condos, or building giant houses in the suburbs. the crisis of insufficient labour is only trotted out as a myth and a canard and an excuse to explain the absence of affordable housing. it's complete and utter bullshit - they're just trying to hike the rent by flooding the market, and then coming up with a bullshit excuse as to why they won't build more housing. yet, this is so entrenched that it's almost impossible to address, and there's essentially no hope of resolving the issue by building more housing.

so, it's a lot easier and more realistic to block immigration.

the basic point is that immigrants benefit the wealthy at the expense of the poor. that's the economics of it. all of the arguments in favour of immigration are good for rich people - it's true - but bad for poor people. the second part of the argument gets lost because the media doesn't care about what poor people want.

the ndp pretends to represent the poor but their policies consistently benefit the rich. it has never presented any kind of cogent reason as to why it supports immgration, it has only ever come up with canards and excuses and myths to explain why it opposes those who oppose immigration. well, the reason is that immigration benefits the rich. that's why they support it.

it makes sense for ndp voters to swing right on this issue and that shift isn't going to lift with rhetoric or reverse any time soon. this is about class interests.

the ndp needs to readdress the class interests around immigration and drop the bourgeois nonsense about "racism" and "diversity". those are just rhetorical excuses that the rich uses to attack the poor with. at a point of economic stress, historical ndp voters are seeing through these myths and rhetorical excuses and seeking policies aligned with their class interests and the ndp are failing to provide those policies. 

the results are not going to be in the interests of those voters in the long run, but it's at the least a valid expression of anger at policies that are not working for working class people.
there was a noticeable electoral result in hamilton, a large city in the golden horseshoe region of the greater toronto census region. you can bicycle from toronto to hamilton and back without exiting an urban zone, if you have all fucking day to waste. that's not the norm in canada, where population centres are generally separated by large, sprawling green spaces. in that sense, oshawa/toronto/mississaugua/oakville/burlingon/hamilton is really one big city around the lake, with hamilton located at the southwest corner of the lake.

the outgoing mayor of hamilton was badly defeated by a right-wing challenger. she only managed 14%. just a few years ago, she was running for premier of ontario; she was the leader of the ontario ndp for quite a lengthy period and had a lot of influence during the minority phase of the wynne government.

what happened?

all evidence suggests it's the drugs in hamilton, which, like many places in ontario, has seen a stark increase in drug addiction since the pandemic as a result of inflation, immigration, "harm reduction", lingering pandemic restrictions and austerity measures converging into a perfect storm for drug addicts. you could previously afford to live on disability in this province, be a drug addict and get housed. you could even do it on welfare if you could find the right supports. you can't do that anymore - less because of inflation and more because housing availability crashed, due to a combination of population increases (almost entirely due to immigration) and insufficient supply being generated to meet it. if you get evicted here now, and you have addictions problems, you may find it extremely difficult to impossible to get housed without going through the homeless shelter system, and they won't let you stay there unless you're cleaned up, and in the end they'll stick you in some insufficient hole in the wall. so, you end up in a tent, which means you don't vote when it's time. both sides of the political equation are fed up with the established left on this. the poor (including the addicts) want less immigration and more housing, and the conservatives want more policing and less tolerance for the drug use. horwath seems to have decided to run on abortion instead, which is just totally bizarre. it's like she just gave up and everybody could see her giving up in real time.

so hamilton, a union town and often an ndp stronghold, has a new very conservative mayor, and bafflingly voted 85% for the right, in a total rejection of harm reduction and immigration at the same time. 

how much of this is fair and how much of it is voters being dumb?

it's mostly voters being dumb. they won't get what they want from this outcome. they're likely to get cuts n services, and the result is predictable: it won't last long.

but the truth that ndp politicians need to grasp is that the formula on addiction presented by the pseudo-left isn't working. harm reduction isn't working and housing isn't keeping up. everybody's fed up and looking for somebody to blame. horwath had a target on her back due to her experience in toronto, and her identification with the ndp.

the ndp needs to adjust it's messaging on addiction and it's consequences if it wants to return as a competitive political force in the areas it used to dominate.

Monday, October 26, 2026

there's still no end to the forecasted late summer / early fall temperatures here and we might even break a record on thursday. this october, we had one day where the high was 12 and two days where the high was 15. every other day here has been 16 degrees celsius or higher, including 9 days higher than 20 degrees, four (maybe five) of which were over 25. 15-20 degrees is considered late summer or early fall in canada. 25+ is considered peak summer.

we're waiting for the yearly crash, but it doesn't look like it's scheduled any time soon. if these 15+ degree days linger too far into november, winter will not be able to happen. there will be too much heat in the ground. it'll just rain, instead.

i should be able to get back to a normal lifestyle in the next few months, i hope. it does depend on these stalkers getting bored and going away and/or giving up and fucking off and/or catching them and sending them to jail. there has to be an end to this soon.

the cameras should be up in the next few weeks. that's something i can do while i'm saving money for the rdsp. i have the components ready to go and a new (old) system to install it on. it's a dell optiplex that i can put linux on. 

while i will need to get out in the front to redo some waterproofing, the installation of the side door will eliminate potential access because i can go in and out through that door instead, which is right beside where i'm working. that change alone will make a huge difference.

i'll know they're gone when i know they're gone. i mean, i can hear them.

right now, i'm focusing on symptoms subsiding and experiences returning to normal.
i continued to spent the last two days finalizing the cleaning in here so i can get in the shower. the main focus has been cleaning the floors, getting things up off the floors and onto tables or shelves, getting things out of boxes and onto tables or shelves, getting things off the couch, laundry, odds and ends in the kitchen, odds and ends in the studio area, cleaning the floor in the garage, putting the bike rack in, getting the bikes out of the inside and into the garage, moving other items out of the inside and into the garage and setting up the remaining shelving. this cleared out the last cluttered area in the main apartment (except the side door), so i have one more region to scrub and steam mop, and then the last thing to do is tidy up in the bedroom and get in the shower. i'm finally basically done.

i slept in the late morning and early afternoon on sunday and split my sleeping on monday between the early morning and early evening. i've been cleaning pretty nonstop since saturday morning, otherwise.

as mentioned, furniture and other purchases for september--->december will be stalled until the new year because i need to max out my rdsp, which is more important. i did not do monthly transfers because i thought i'd be done in here by the summer at the latest, and i could push finishing in here first and catch up, and then had to deal with a host of unexpected issues and expenses which i might get a refund on before the end of the year, which would be helpful. so, i need to catchup, and i need to get that list done and sent. if the refund comes in early, i could back to it early, otherwise i'll need to wait.

i am going to have a minmeal first and then get back to it. i hope to be in the shower by the end of the morning.
it's starting to look like we got rid of dilbert. great.

i don't want to jump to conclusions about why, but his decision to overpower an otherwise (i believe) unanimous vote on city council to fund what many people here consider to be an essential service might have been the reason. i would consider that act an unacceptable abuse of power and reason for removal. he argued it was losing money, but he funded all kinds of other things, including religious festivals, that lost more money, and provided no services. it's a question of where your priorities are - do you want to be taxed to pay for services or do you want to be taxed to pay for things that are not services, like memorials to rail cars and skating rinks on city hall?

if you listened to his reasoning at the time, he seemed to actually cancel the bus as an intentional attack on the unions, which is pretty dumb and out of touch and arrogant, in windsor.

hopefully, this outcome sends a warning to future mayors: don't overpower council just because you can. voters won't tolerate it and will throw you out of office for it. if this is what people are thinking, it's a clear victory for democracy and citizen oversight.

anybody that watched the debate would also struggle to describe dilbert without using descriptions like "pompous asshole". his treatment of the female candidate, who is a kind of small-business conservative that seemed to have traditional values perspectives, was abysmal. he was impossible to admire as a potential four-term mayor, let alone want to have a beer with.

if francis does win, it might be an overall rightward shift, if only a small one. the major candidates are both conservatives, but francis is saying he'll bring the tunnel bus back. great.

i want to make a summary request about this. with the bridge opening, which lets people cross on foot or bicycle for free, the primary value of the bus needs to be to service around the bridge's very restricted hours. the bridge is going to close at 3:00 pm for the winter months. the bus needs to service people from 3:00 pm to 7:00 am (that is overnight) as a priority, and deprioritize daytime hours. i am very disappointed in the bridge authority's decision to accept such restrictive hours for the walkway, and it does maintain a purpose for the bus, which i would like to see run over night, every night. it could even not run at all in the middle of the day.

when you buy a stolen car, and the authorities track it down, what happens?

you have to give the car back to it's rightful owner. you are not compensated. you take the loss.

you don't have a "property right" to keep the stolen car. rather, the rightful owner has a right to recover their property. the ownership papers were transferred illegitimately, and you didn't due your due diligence in making sure the sale was legitimate. it's actually your fault.

you can try to sue the person that sold you the stolen car but it's ultimately the buyer's responsibility under canadian law to do their due diligence.

likewise, it may be the case that a lot of people in bc bought stolen land, but that doesn't change the fact that it's stolen, and that the sellers had no right to sell it. under canadian law, those purchase are illegitimate, and it's up to the buyer to take the loss, due to not doing their due diligence.

in this case, the people that bought stolen land may have a good legal case to sue the government to recover losses, but it doesn't alter the basic fact that the state had no right to sell land it doesn't own and that it's the rightful owners that have the legal rights, not the people that stole it.
if the conservative party of british columbia had any actual support for property rights, it would seek to compensate the indigenous groups for the massive amount of land that was stolen from them outright, not purchased or signed away in any sort of treaty process. 

i do not support property rights and do not want to confuse you. i am drawing attention to their hypocrisy. i do not support the idea of enforcing property rights, which are not consistent with indigenous culture, on the indigenous peoples of bc.

however, the conservative party position is not in support of property rights but in support of colonial land theft. it's the exact opposite of a support for property rights. they think they have some sort of right to steal land from the indigenous groups without compensation or consent, and they call that "property rights". but, as proudhon stated, property is indeed theft (or is impossible, as a more accurate application to indigenous land rights would assert. that is, the indigenous groups actually understood that property is impossible and actually lived that way.).

the conservative party and the ndp have the same political position on this issue, which reflects the reality that bc is outright stolen land. it's the courts that have stepped in and said "there's no legal basis of the fiefdoms here. there's no valid deed. there's no treaty. there's no sale. you just outright showed up and flat out stole it. that's not legal under canadian law, going back to the days of the roman empire. you have to come to some agreement with the descendants of the groups you stole the land from. you can't just carry on as though the outright theft of land is in any way legitimate; it's not. until you work out some agreement, the rightful owner is the family that the land was stolen from, not the government that stole it and took control of it without paying for it.".

it consequently doesn't really matter which party is in power because this is a legal issue about the absence of any valid ownership documents and not a political issue. the bc legislature has little power to fight the court rulings. it's not even really in their jurisdiction.

it does however expose a serious problem in the settler-colonial culture in bc. it's 2026, and bc seems to think it's 1763. a substantive number of british columbians don't see anything wrong with stealing land from indigenous groups, and even insist they have a right to do that, and call it property rights.

never forget that we live in the era of orwell.

Sunday, October 25, 2026

i would not expect a conservative government in bc to be discernibly different from an ndp government on any substantive or important policy, but having the ndp back in opposition will force them to re-examine their position on fossil fuel exports and give activists an opportunity to redirect the party back towards the left. this is the right outcome in response to eby's shift of the ndp to the right on climate issues, as well as on other issues.
the canadian left sent a powerful message to the ndp in bc today - do not support fossil fuel infrastructure, or we will see you as interchangeable with the conservatives and throw you out of office.


the conservatives are not substantively up - it's a point or two and it might wash out. however, the ndp got cratered by a shift left to the greens, as a result of supporting gas exports from alberta. that is not acceptable from a centre-left party in 2026. voters will not tolerate this and will throw you out of office.

let this be a lesson to other jurisdictions.

left-wing voters are sick of fossil fuel development and will not tolerate political movements that support it. a centre-left party cannot win an election in 2026 without coming out staunchly against fossil fuel development. they have to accept this.
i want to update my perception of the cd master of ormandy's 1975 recording of holsts's the planets. the spars code is add, but it doesn't explicitly state anywhere it's remastered from analog (and you'd expect that as a marketing decision if it was). it got a lot of bad reviews. i was wondering if it's because they grafted the analog mix to digital and didn't benefit from the technology upgrade but after listening to it carefully on a system that is just barely good enough to tell, i'm convinced that it's the opposite and that the classical fans, here, are making the same dumb analytical errors that the folk fans were making.

the planets is a good workout for any sound system. it has a huge volume and dynamic range and makes full use of the orchestra, so it has a full spectrum. it's consequently actually very easy to tell that this was remastered when it was digitized. a vinyl master could not produce this dynamic or frequency range. it's actually a prime example of the kind of composition you need digital for, and you shouldn't bother with vinyl with.

take the track saturn, for instance. the track has this long build that features a prominent plucked stand up bass and peaks in a very heavy metal type horn blare. this clearly showcases both the superior dynamic and superior frequency range of digital audio technology. if you tried to mix this on vinyl, you'd have to high and low pass it and you'd lose the insane ramp up, in terms of volume difference. you can tell it's digitally mastered because it manages to get very quiet. the solution is to turn it up, and enjoy the loud parts as the loud parts they are, when they get loud.

but it's easy to imagine somebody listening to it and reacting by complaining that they can't hear it. they may have a vinyl master that they can hear better at low volumes, so they may compare it, and decide this is bad and worse. if they know little about music or music production, and they read something on reddit, they might decide they can't hear it because it's too compressed. in fact, they can't hear it because it's not compressed, it's been allowed to exist in a larger volume spectrum. compression reduces the dynamic range, it doesn't increase it. if you don't really know what dynamic compression is, but you know compressing your pillow makes it smaller, you might find the language counter-intuitive and get confused.

this recording has almost no compression, so you have to really turn up the quiet parts to hear them. if you don't, and your speakers are competing with something, the result might sound muffled or distant and the ignorant consumer might decide it's compressed. no. it's just quiet. that's dynamic range you're hearing - that's the absence of compression, not the presence of it.

if i were to do a cover of this and port the instruments to rock instrumentation, it would be with bass and electric guitar stealing the spectrum and just background keyboard parts. i might sequence some sampled horns. and guess what? i'd compress the fuck out of it to get the bass part up and in your face without requiring you to turn it up. but i wouldn't have 50 other musicians making ambient sounds to listen to. i'd have a heavily gated effects section run through an eventide emulator, or something.

that's not what this, and the symphony needs that space to breathe to get a proper reproduction. i have the budget rca classics version and i even bought it in the bargain bin, new. i'd say the mix is fully digital and actually very well done, but you have to be able to turn your system up to appreciate it and your speakers have to be able to reproduce the signal. otherwise, you might get some problems in enjoyment, because your stereo can't reproduce the cd well.

i'm going to consequently shift my note of a dsd existing in the best quality section from "yes" to "maybe". dsd doesn't use conventional sampling. an sacd of a dsd digitization of the original recording might sound better if the tape is still usable, but the product for sale is a dsd to 16-bit/44.1 khz conversion (i suppose this is something like a downsample). this would still probably be better than a vinyl master, but i would guess that you can't tell the difference between the two cds, except in places where it's been manipulated by the mastering engineer. i would not consider it legitimate to run a 40 year old recording of a hundred year old symphony through digital reverb and market it as an improved master. i'd rather listen to the mastered-for-cd mix from 40 years ago.

i want record labels to clarify these decisions. i acknowledge my ears are not a spectrum analyzer, and this isn't a mathematical analysis. i could easily just rip the cd to wave and run it through some basic stats and that would tell me, but i'm confident that's not necessary. there's no way a vinyl master would have this level of dynamic range. it's actually extremely obvious. but i shouldn't have to do either of these things. the label should tell me if the master was new from the tape for the cd or built on the existing for-vinyl master. it should tell me what bit rate it was transferred at. the existing multitude of competing standards and the reality that there's no objective consumer preference means consumers should have the specs available at the purchase stage so they can pick what they want, even if they make objectively wrong decisions from the information.

Saturday, October 24, 2026

i want to correct the slogan "diversity is strength" to it's more accurate form.

ignorance is strength.

that's better. it's more along the lines of what they're trying to say.
if vinyl records potentially contain all of this extra information but you have to mix it out in order to play it back, is there some approach to take to take full advantage of the medium?

sure!

you'd just need to eliminate the physical touching in the playback process. you'd have to take out the cartridge and take out the tone arm. maybe you could replace it with a laser or something.

otherwise, no, or not without turning playing a record into doing a physics experiment. do you want to build a clean room in your basement? build a machine that stops a tone arm from vibrating? tricky stuff. it would cost a lot.

so, vinyl is in practice limited by the physical characteristics of the playback mechanism to a very restricted frequency spectrum that makes it sound very compressed. a lot of consumers like this. but they have struggled to find adjectives to describe their experiences using science and have said things that are factually, empirically wrong, as a result.
i woke up yesterday a little before noon and just put the cd cataloging down and got to scrubbing and cleaning. i need to get this done so i can get in the shower. i got half of the aluminum up before i ran out of tape, re-scrubbed and steam mopped most of the floors and i even got the drum kit set up. for the first time since i moved in, everything in every room is essentially in it's right place. what's left is mostly just to tidy things up.

the landlord says the door on the side will be installed soon, so i should be able to get that last area sealed and cleaned soon, too.

i need to buy a lot more tape as my next step - duct tape, packing tape, weatherproofing tape, aluminum tape - but it's going to need to wait until after i get my rdsp money transferred.

so, that's it.

i have a few more days of work to do before i can get into a month long shower and clean myself up back to normal. for today, the focus is on finishing the cleaning and getting in the shower.
do these immigrant run organized crime networks in france that are looting shops have some lineal connection to algerian piracy?

yeah.

they do.

it's been the same back and forth since martel stopped the arab advance. i'm white, and i identify as white, but i know that white people are naive about non-white people. there have been periodic attempts at forcing integration, which just lead to further slave raiding. the whites can't understand that the arabs think they're an inferior race. they can't comprehend that the root of the problem is that the arabs are racist against them and that no amount of integration will resolve it. so, then, there are periodic attempts to fight back in response - from martel to napoleon III. it ebbs and flows, it swings back and forth. c'est la france.

geography is such that marseilles isn't far from carthage and hannibal will keep coming into perpetuity. you can't blame the french for wanting to get along, but you can blame them for being stupid and naive about it. you can't blame them for fighting back, when they do, either.

it's probably time for a swing towards the aggressive defence of french culture. right now, it looks like the bankers are what are standing in the way of that, as the french popular consensus shifts staunchly towards defense of the culture.
if we're going to talk about france and islam, it's imperative to understand that france is not the united states and that the french empire was not the british empire. cultural blinders created by applying american critical race theory to france are going to create more problems in an empirical analysis than a theory of a "christian europe", which i have been abundantly clear that i reject as a myth. these are both wrong ways to understand france and islam.

i'm going to do this from the top of my head.

this is a map of the french empire at it's maximum extent:


there's also a gif here:

the lightest blue is the nation state of france, as cut out of the empire of charlemagne, when it was split up amongst his sons on his death in the 9th century, but which is also an area that is equivalent to the empire of clovis, who started the merovingian dynasty that the carolingians replaced, at the very dawn of the fall of the roman empire. france has existed more or less in it's current state since the barbarian invasions that led to the sack of rome in 476. in that sense, france as we see it today is one of the oldest nation states in the world - older than any other nation state in europe by a substantive margin and older than any country in the middle east, as it exists today. france is older than islam is, and is consequently older than the middle east, as we understand it, is. it's older than a concept of a united india. it's older than any existing west african national identity. it's older than turkey, it's older than iran, as iran exists today. it's older than russia. it's not as old as china, as japan or as ethiopia. you have to go a very far distance from france to find a country that is as old as it is.

the middle shade is the empire that napoleon sold to the americans, before he got defeated by one of the several historical examples of when the british aligned with the russians to advance their common interests in defeating a common enemy.

the darker shade was the empire rebuilt after the restoration of the monarchy and leading into the return of french democracy. 

the british abandoned their empire after they won world war two. the french did not abandon their empire, after france was restored after the second world war. it's important to understand that the fact that the french collaborated with the nazis allowed mussolini to build a large franco-italian axis state in north africa. the french tried to hold this after the second world war, which led to a civil war in algeria and a handful of colonies in west africa that have retained an evolving relationship with paris to the present day. macron has been accused of neocolonialism in western africa.

the french also tried to hold syria/lebanon, outside of the british mandate for palestine, which split a region that had been administratively connected since the time of alexander, under the seleucids. they also tried to hold vietnam, which resulted in the vietnam war.

the french were highly unsuccessful in retaining their overseas provinces (as they would call them), but one may take a second to look at the map and notice something: france is very small in comparison to the size of western africa. it's something like a quarter of the size of algeria, which it tried to annex. the french had some self-awareness of this and tried to frame their empire not as one of colonial domination by paris but as one of cultural synthesis with it's conquered peoples. the annexation of algeria was, in theory, intended to merge france with algeria, rather than swallow it is an inferior state. the algerians were told the french saw them as equals, and they encouraged migration in both directions.

this didn't work out - the algerians revolted in the 1950s and secured independence in the 1960s, at roughly the same time that the vietnamese did. however, certain elements of the french elite have never given up on this, and have tried to continue to combine france with islamic countries in africa and the levant to create a new cultural synthesis, with memories of the roman empire that are not that different than hitler's concept of the first reich, or hitler's subsequent projection of a new reich to replace that first reich (degaulle could have been accused of trying to build a fourth reich and that gaullist strain remains in the french elite). macron is clearly aligned with these class interests and their subsequent social positions.

the laicite laws are not written in isolation of this history, either. laicitie was 1905. the french conquest of algeria - intended to reduce piracy and slave raiding in southern france by algerian corsairs aka barbary pirates - was in 1830. north and west african countries have indigenous populations that were colonized by arabs, too, who converted them to islam, by force. they have periodically sought secularizing movements to assert non-arab, indigenous identities. the dominant indigenous ethnic group in the region is not arab but berber, an ethnic group that is rather european looking, in phenotypes.

if you look at macron's policies carefully, you can see that he's been trying to build a third french empire since day one. this is not in contradiction to melenchon's "new france" narrative, but is rather a different manifestation of it. if le pen is tentatively the christian revisionist (in fact, i think the christian revisionists will be disappointed by le pen, who i think is actually a moderate), melenchon and macron present two different aspects of the projected gaullist synthesis between france and muslim africa, which is a creation of the french bourgeois elite and the basis for french empire. for that reason, the french banking institutions and higher elite are more likely to support the fake socialist melenchon over the isolationist le pen in the upcoming elections.

in the waning months of macron's presidency, he seems to even by trying to fill a power vacuum left by the americans' refusal to support the arabs against the iranians. you have to put this in the context of post-war france, of algeria, of vietnam and of syria/lebanon to get your head around it. macron actually cancelled a joint fighter plane project with the germans, and then went and signed an agreement to build a new fighter jet with qatar, instead. odd, right? what of european security? no. this is actually consistent with a return in the french elite to de gaulle's vision of a post-war france (due to american decline) as a new empire or a fourth reich, as a franco-muslim alliance, which failed then and will fail again now, and macron's desire to build a third french empire by aligning west african and middle eastern countries into a new francophonie and in the process merge france with the middle east into a new society, a new rome. that's consistent with melenchon's new france. in fact, the french bankers may even see melenchon's theory (which is not socialist. it's a type of fascist theory.) as helpful in projecting a new french empire into the region, to replace a vacuum opening up by the american withdrawal. the british do not seem interested in competing with the french over this opening power vacuum. the iranians, the russians and the turks are the direct competitors right now, with the perhaps unlikely outcome of chinese hegemony looming on the still distant horizon.

i think that history has shown that this is not likely to succeed. the error the french are making is basically that they're racist, and you can pull out your critical race theory, now. they expect the arabs and muslims to submit to french hegemony just because they're french, ie because they're white. it's more likely that they're going to return to the corsairs of the barbary pirates, to return to the piracy and slave raiding and plundering. the truth is that the arabs actually think the french are an inferior race, drawing on their own history of conquest and colonialism. they have their own goals and self-interest, in conquering france and converting it to islam. white liberals will accuse you of being racist for pointing that out, but it's in truth some kind of twisted doublethink. no, it's not racist to think the arabs want to conquer france; it is racist to think the arabs want to submit to french colonial dominance. the french liberal elite is horribly naive and ridiculously clueless about this, which we're seeing come out in the french riots. they don't understand why the immigrants don't want to be french. well, it's because they want to convert france to islam, because they have agency and self-interest and are independent actors. surprise, surprise for the racist white liberals - the arabs want to convert you. in dystopian france, muslim convert you! oops.

the result of this mess is that right-wing actors identified in an american cultural context as racist in projecting the collapse of american society due to too much immigration are actually closer to an empirical left in a french imperial context, in discussions of the same policies. muslim immigration to the united states has so far to go before it replaces the dominant culture that it's difficult to identify as a serious threat, in the face of other more pressing concerns. it's a more real issue in canada, with it's smaller population, than it is in the united states. but they're not far from it in france, after almost 200 years of it. this is a real threat to france, a very serious concern.

the actual french left, like the actual left in much of the world, no longer really exists. the socialists in their day would have been arguing for algerian independence, and it was partly to keep the algerians out of france. these fantasies of empire by macron and melenchon alike are not in the interests of the french working class, but they no longer have political representation. instead, france is seeing mass violence perpetuated by far right extremists (the unions failed to co-opt the violence. the yellow vests, a right-wing and crypto-fascist movement, has succeeded in co-opting it, instead.). melenchon's attempt to build socialism in france by organizing reactionary elements has instead put it on the brink of a fascist uprising, just as marx and engels would have predicted it would, and the elite is now trying to co-opt it, itself, by organizing marches against le pen (or russia), who has nothing to do with this.

expect macron to make attempts to put forward these gaullist (that is a confusing word because france was once called gaul. it means supporters of the geopolitical philosophy of charles de gaulle) positions in the upcoming weeks, as he tries to transfer power to melenchon, or tries to seize it for himself. but do not get confused by your american crt blinders, or try to understand the situation in americanized terms. the specific historical context of french colonialism in the arab world, combined with an attempt by the french elite to turn that colonialism into a cultural synthesis and which is based on a racist projection of the white french liberal as dominant over the inferior muslim arab and that the muslims have tried to turn on it's head in fighting to convert france to islam instead, is imperative to grasp in order to understand the situation properly.

for that reason, if macron will not resign, he should be removed from power by force, before he makes the situation worse than he already has.

france has no good options in the short run, other than to fight the fascist uprising in the streets before the bankers take control of it; then, we're going to end up talking about the spanish revolution, instead.
macron has eliminated any lingering doubts over the fact that he's a complete moron who was never qualified for the job and is in way over his head. 

he should immediately resign and make way for new leadership.

Friday, October 23, 2026

ai could do chris farley impersonations, right?

don't encourage me to figure that shit out.

when the rapture, in the form of the idiocracy, comes upon us in full brunt, the buddy jesus will say "let the children come at me bro".

until then, let the fucking retarded brats march!
"let the children come at me, bro" was falsely attributed to jesus.

the quote is actually correctly attributed to chris farley.
conversely, the officers should take note of the fact that jesus did not say

let the children come at me, bro.
jesus said it best himself.

let the retarded brats march.
i've added a "best format?" field to the alphabetical list and also to the discogs collection, although i'm not updating the pdf yet.

there's been no further sign of that rodent in here, whatever it was.

it didn't like getting sprayed with lysol. if it was in here out of curiosity, rather than food, hopefully i chased it out.

i cannot find any evidence of it eating anything and the very minimal scat i've found over the last year is so small that i haven't been sure it's a rodent, i've thought it was a roach. it's so small and so quiet and produces so little evidence that it's here that it's almost tempting to ignore it, but i know that's bad. they're filthy creatures.

i keep saying i need to finish that cd update, then get the aluminum up, then finish the cleaning and then get in the shower. i'm still on step one due to the distractions, but i have better bounds on what i'm looking for in maximizing audio quality around items in my music list. where i can find legitimate 24 bit audio releases, i would be interested in them, and i'll take note of them, but i would expect them to be rare finds. 
i've been massively distracted this week, but i'm generating boundaries for the cd list and the music web, which is one of the upcoming major projects. it's not entirely unproductive.
this guy claims it was all redigitized in 2011 as 24-bit, then down sampled for cd re-release, then released in 2021 at 24/192 from the 2011 files. it may be worth looking into when i get to it.

Thursday, October 22, 2026

in theory, a pink floyd record from the 70s recorded on high quality tape could be remastered to 24 bit audio, although i'm not aware of anybody doing that.

however, a nine inch nails or tool record recorded using pro tools in the 90s is limited to 16 bit, max.
to be clear: high quality master tapes are often at very high resolutions with frequency ranges over 30 khz. they are way better quality than the vinyl copies that were sold in stores, and you can in theory retrieve and retain a very large amount of information by digitizing the old tapes that you cannot get on vinyl. if you can get it on to a virgin consumer quality reel, you're getting something comparable to 24 bit audio, until it starts to degrade, which is instantly. the best tapes in the best studios in the 70s are comparable to a 24 bit or 32 bit master in terms of information. it's the masters produced for vinyl from those tapes that were of low quality, because vinyl playback is incapable of producing a high frequency spectrum. you can completely solve the problems in vinyl playback by digitizing, and you also permanently preserve the information when you do. but you only preserve it at the level you take it in at.

24-bit audio didn't exist at all until the late 90s and my understanding is that, even in 2026, it's virtually impossible to get a clean 24-bit chain. at some point, you're downsampling, and then all is lost. you should stay at 16 the moment you downsample. you should never re-up, but the reality is that the signal is bounced back and forth repeatedly and then sent out at both rates for consumer sales. when that's the case, the better quality to sell it at is almost always 16-bit rather than the 24 bit upsample.

there are consequently better opportunities to digitize old tapes, if they aren't yet totally degraded, then there are to upsample recordings in the digital era, but only if you actually go back and do it, and when they tried to do that people yelled that it didn't sound like vinyl, so they went back and used the old vinyl masters, instead. 

so, you go to a store and buy a dvd audio or log on to a streaming site and see something marketed as 24-bit audio, but it's often just a digital capture of the fucking vinyl master with a low cut at 15 khz. you're not getting 24 bit audio, even in those rare cases where you could. you're not even getting cd quality audio. you're getting something worse than a lossy mp3 sold to you as 24-bit.

i'm avoiding the a-word. my dad used the a-word a lot, and i don't like the pomposity of it. but i'm a math nerd and a recording engineer in addition to being a composer and i know what i'm doing and i certainly want to listen to the best quality i can get my hands on at all times. i'd love for 24 bit audio to be a real thing and i'd invest in it if it were but it isn't. 

or it is not yet.
When we began the project there was no 24-bit recording. We did eventually transfer everything to 24-bit/48k and kept it at that.

right. so it's upsampling.

see, this is the real-life limitation: if it's recorded at a lower digital quality, you get nowhere up-sampling it.

you can buy this in 24-bit audio. but it's just upsampled.

while i'm sure some exist, i cannot cite a single verifiable example of a recording that is actually in 24 bit audio from front to end.

as mentioned previously, my best approach would be to make requests. i think that peter gabriel's rabbit proof fences ought to be released in 24 bit audio, and i'd like to hear it, but i don't want to hear it upsampled, i want him to do it right. likewise, there's a selection of abstract music released from nine inch nails, mostly in the 90s, that i'd like to get remastered properly for 24 bit. and i'd like to hear some of son lux' early recordings in that format.

that's what i've got.

almost anything recorded with an orchestra would be better in 24-bit, if it maintains the bit level from start to finish, with no conversion at any point in the processing chain. if any plugin, eq, etc converts to 16 bit to process, it's lost and you can't get it back. it's worth looking for if you can find it, but the truth is it's not standard industry practice, to my knowledge, or not yet. 

the vast majority of recordings you will find in cd stores or on streaming sites are going to max out at 16 bit and a 24 bit conversion is just upsampling the 16 bit, which is a slight decrease in quality. that's just a technical fact. it's not resolvable.

you'd have to go back to source and re-record it, like they did with that holst cd. that means you need to do the research on a cd by cd basis.
it's better to let them act out and prosecute them than it is to ban them from demonstrating. democracy is valuable. the french should not be hypocritical, and i don't intend to be hypocritical in my positions, myself.
the stupid french children should not be banned from marching, but there should be cops in the commercial districts and outside of important buildings, and they should be aggressive in making arrests.
so, how would i rank the different audio playback mechanisms?

i will acknowledge that the recording medium makes a difference, but only on the very high end. i don't have a system like that and few people do. further, the reality is that the analog technology has an end of life. if you don't digitize it eventually, you lose it, and once it's digitized it should stay digitized. it makes no sense to dump it back to analog.

condition A: analog tape masters

this probably means a reel-to-reel and i want to be clear that my disdain for vinyl does not extend to analog master tapes themselves. this is arguably the highest quality recording possible, or was. but it degrades, even if you don't play it. you don't have to play the tapes from them to demagnetize.

in 2026, it is probably already too late for your reel-to-reel playback mechanism and it's probably well past the time to move on. it probably doesn't sound very good at all and you're probably deluding yourself, you're probably paying top dollar for a medium with no workable input source. you'd have to really, really, really like that one record from the 70s. 

but, if something was recorded to high quality tape then it does continue to make sense in theory to master and manufacture it on high quality tape. these are not the little tape cartridges for your 90s ghettoblasters you had as kids. these are big, clunky reels. they are short in duration and it takes 20 minutes to swap them carefully. it costs like $100/lp. it's unworkable, but it's the best quality - in theory - for old analog masters.

in reality, then you need to find sufficient playback equipment, and you need to accept that the reels are probably warped and degraded and the result is it in truth probably sounds like absolute shit.

this then is best to worst - according to objective scientific analysis.

1. analog reel-to-reel, in theory. not in practice.
2. digital audio that was digitized from master tapes (as 24 bit), either as an optical disc or a file. same thing. note that you want to avoid streaming this to ensure clarity. download it instead. further, be careful about the effects of fans in computer equipment. netbooks tend to have less interference but bad sound cards. i use a raspberry pi with a dac for digital audio. another option is a dvd or bluray player with a usb port.
3. digital audio that was digitized from master tapes (as 16 bit) <---cd or download (flac). see above.
4. digital audio digitized from master tapes and compressed to 320 kbps mp3 is actually better quality than consumer analog media. it's actually less filtered.
5. commercial cassettes made from an analog master source (without digitizing) have higher frequency ranges than vinyl playback, in theory. in reality, your tapes from the 90s are probably so degraded that they're unplayable.
6. vinyl cut from analog is the worst available playback mechanism and on par with lossy digital audio formats, like 256 kbps or lower mp3, due to the filtering process
7. lossy digital audio
8. digital audio that was digitized from the for vinyl analog masters which were already heavily filtered is the worst possible choice. it's also one of the most popular choices, unfortunately.

condition B: digital masters

if you recorded to digital you shouldn't even consider converting it to analog. it's consequently the same hierarchy, with the analog playback sources removed.

however, upsampling doesn't increase quality. the quality has to be there in the master already. you get what you record at.

1. 24 bit digital (optical or digital, including lossless), if the recording was at that rate, legitimately, without conversion at any point of processing (very, very rare). really only relevant for classical music.
2. 16 bit digital audio (optical or digital, including lossless). this is the best you're going to get for 99.9% of non-classical music recordings in the commercial market.
3. 320kbps mp3s compressed from high quality ddd sources are better than vinyl because they have less frequency loss.
4. vinyl cut from lossless digital audio requires it to be mastered for vinyl, which requires hefty high and low cuts that the amplifier is supposed to rebuild, but it in truth can't do that without a severe decrease in detail on the high and low end. it just results in a bass blur and a treble ring. it's not only not comparable to any form of lossless digital audio, it's worse than a high quality mp3.
5. lossy digital audio (including almost all streaming).