Wednesday, November 4, 2026

it's easy to forget sometimes that the american electoral system is a trap. there wasn't really a revolution in the united states until 1861, and it failed. the system in france was revolutionary, but it was overthrown. the british/canadian system, for all it's conservative pomp, is the one most likely to enact change, but it's not easy.

canada was created in 1867 to end the gridlock in the remaining british colonies.

in the united states, the stasis and gridlock was built into the system by design. it's the point. madison wasn't gaslighting anybody, it's just that nobody knew how to read. it's all right there in the constitutional papers.

the party systems are more about power than politics. there's a ruling party and an opposition party. they flip periodically. it's a shell game. the whole thing is designed to prevent an overthrow of the landed class. it's like a mock magna carta to keep the status quo in place. 

the american electoral system is very intentionally designed to have two essentially identical parties perpetually in a fake fight with each other. that's why you can't have a third party. it breaks the rules of the game. when voters are angry about something, they vote for the opposition instead of burning the place down. this creates the illusion of democracy, and keeps the gentry in control.

some things have happened since, like the industrial revolution. there's an entire alternate history of the united states built around fights over central banks. today we have bankers instead of gentry, but the system is about the same.

what we saw in the united states yesterday was an example of the system allowing for venting without altering the composition of power. we've gone from a senate controlled by the religious right in the republican party to a senate controlled by the religious right in the democratic party. texas, iowa, kansas and michigan replaced hard right conservative republicans with hard right conservative democrats. i don't know what to call the new senator from maine. americans vented without breaking anything, like they're supposed to do. yippity doo da yay.

yodelling is actually an underappreciated compositional form. 
what actually happened was that the registered republicans didn't show up. 

when they did the minimal amounts of real polling at the end, the polling was massively skewed towards the democrats, in terms of sampling. the results the media reported were not a correct reflection of what the polling said. i accurately corrected the news reports that inaccurately reported on the polls and my projections were what the polling actually said. 

the media's projections of the polling results were in fact broadly wrong (because they misread the data).

however, the fact that republicans didn't show up to vote recreated the skew in the data. it was not good modelling - it was mostly terrible modelling - but it was just dumb luck. it should have come out in the wash, but it accidentally worked.

that's why they have the elections.

are the democrats going to hold these seats? i doubt it. if they do, what's going on is more like realignment than political shift. as a socialist, i wouldn't vote for most of these candidates for local dogcatcher. these are people, almost without exception, that i would go out and campaign aggressively against. i don't agree with them on anything. and i think they're ugly and gross people i wouldn't talk to at a party, too.

as a result of this election, democrats are going to be more likely to oppose women's rights and more likely to oppose queer rights, while being more likely to support using the state to enforce religion and less likely to stand up for jews. this is threatening to pull the party into the contemporary dark ages of the conservative movement. it's not a swing to the left anywhere in any sense and will not result in more equality, more liberalization or anything approaching it, anywhere.

the democratic party may have won but liberal democrats and liberal democracy massively lost. the victors are the religious right and the increasing normalization of conservative value systems.
the democrats elected a bunch of disgusting losers, including

- people that believe in god
- men with despicably poor personal hygiene
- high school dropouts

it's the loser patrol. it's really embarrassing. who would be proud of this?

it's a massive shift towards the worst kind of small-c conservatism. democrats didn't change the centre of the country. the centre of the country changed the democrats. 

if these are the kinds of deplorable candidates that the democrats need to run to be competitive, forget it.
10 years after trump came down the escalator, have the democrats finally figured him out, by outstupiding him?

it's not even clear that it worked.

give it another few days before you draw conclusions.
when they called texas, very early, the bigoted right-wing conservative christian candidate for the democratic party was ahead by 20 points, on the strength of urban voters and early ballots. it was immediately very clear that the entire thing was manufactured to inflate the strength of the democratic showing and that not only was it obvious that the vote would come way down but it was not obvious that the democrats were going to win at all.

right now, at 2:00 am est, there's still 10% of the vote left and the spread has decreased from 20% to 9%. it's halved. they haven't counted things like military ballots.

i understand that the projections are supposed to be made on the strength of the characteristics of the remaining vote to be counted, but it was abundantly obvious that almost all of the remaining vote was in republican areas. with 11% left to count and a much reduced spread, that is still the case.

i have also watched the spread slowly decrease in kansas, south carolina and iowa, where the same dynamic is at play: the early votes put the democrats way ahead and the republicans have been slowly catching up all night but haven't caught up yet. they seem to have stopped counting for the night. maine and michigan have bounced around a little more. maine still has a lot of counting to do as well. the republicans caught up in nebraska and appear to have caught up in alaska.

the democrats clearly had a good night. the news reports in the liberal media and the aggregate sites all over-projected the democratic results, but the democrats did still have a good night.

i believe the decisions in texas, kansas, south carolina, maine and iowa were premature. the final result will be outside of the margin of error reported in the final polls (the results will be closer than predicted) because the polls overweighted the democrats, but the democrats did have a very good night and they may barely win a few of these seats when the counting is done.

i don't think that the democrats have flipped kansas, texas or south carolina and that the final results will reverse the decisions made by the liberal media projections. they may have actually flipped maine and iowa, but there's still a lot of counting to do and, even if they did, the calls were still premature. the results are going to continue to tighten dramatically in all of these races. the media should have waited.

the candidates elected by the democrats are broadly terrible candidates - bigoted christians, uneducated loggers, transphobes and muslim extremists. this is nothing for anybody to be proud of. democrats should be embarrassed by the low quality of their candidates and americans should be embarrassed that the only strategy that democrats have found to compete against the republicans in most of the country is to outstupid them on the ground.

Tuesday, November 3, 2026

i'm watching the kornacki stream on youtube and it's the same narrative i've been drawing attention to.

the journalists keep trying to present a narrative about a democratic landslide. it's "historic", apparently. they want to wrap this up early. but kornacki can't find the data to back up the claims the journalists are making.

i'm not saying the democrats won't win the house. they could.

but it's going to be a long night.
it doesn't look like we beat the record today, but that's two days this week where we came within a degree of it. the high here in detroit was 23 degrees celsius, on nov 3rd.

it's a good day in michigan to get out to vote and it's going to be pleasant this evening. if turnout is low, it won't be because it's shitty out (i guess it might be because it's too nice out).
the forecast here is pushing well past nov 10th without any sign of first frost. 

there's a possibility of a first frost in the long range on nov 16th, but two weeks is a good distance from now, and we'll see if it happens.

can we get to dec 1st in detroit without an overnight frost event - that is, without an overnight low below freezing, at all? 

what if this continues until the solstice? that is a remarkable change in the climate, here.
i don't support allowing government backed student loans to be used to pay for access to profit-based private educational institutions, regardless of whether these are upper class institutions or low quality diploma mills.

government student loans - osap in ontario - should exclusively be available for publicly owned universities and colleges.

students that want to attend for-profit private sector educational institutions should be restricted to accessing funding in the private sector.

this is a left-wing position.
that is it. totally. finally. for real.

today's vacuum run found no sign of fresh rodent activity anywhere at all. just squeaking in the walls. whatever. eat the bugs.

i still have a lot to do but i should be able to retreat to monthly cleaning.

the next thing to do is the video and picture update i talked about. this is going to be a pretty big update.

then, i need to spend the next several days in the shower, and then shift to the typing. due to the fact that i spent so much time setting things up in here before i got back to the typing, there's going to be much less left to do, in terms of remnant purchases. that is, pretty much everything i've already bought is installed and what's left to do will need to be purchased fresh in the new year.

am i done in the kitchen? no. i need to buy some more caulking, and may get some small appliances. i have a lot of work to do in the side entrance still. i have some shelving left to buy and install for the library, and i have to install the pi in the listening room. i need to buy a new filing cabinet for my bedroom and fix my celestions. those are the big things.
i know they sell streaming devices that require you to pay for a subscription service but that's not what i mean. i have no interest in music streaming sites.

what i mean is a device that looks like audio equipment and can be connected to your existing stereo system that is essentially a sound card with a large hard drive, so you can store music files locally. it would be a specialized mini pc with a high quality dac and large storage capacity, plus a few usb and other ins and outs, for external storage.

you can buy receivers or bluray players with usb connections that let you scroll through them and i could accept that and have considered it for a secondary system (in my bedroom). but i can't imagine scrolling through a 5 tb drive looking for something. i need a search and i need a file explorer. i need an os.

you could in theory do this in one piece. a little mini pc running a specially distributed linux distro with a good dac and a large fanless drive capacity and a kvm out and maybe a remote touchscreen would be something i'd buy. you'd just send the audio out into your amp, or maybe it even has it's own amp, with inputs to connect a cd to it instead, and direct speaker outs.

the streaming devices strike me as useless.
i am from this point boycotting any site that uses cloudfare.

as soon as the checking thing comes up, i hit the back button.

find some other way to protect your data from ai. stop slowing down the internet.
i've been thinking about getting a standalone bluray player for blu ray audio and also for sacd. i have a blu-ray burner connected to my 32-bit recording pc but it's intended for data archival. it could spin something. there's an m-audio audiophile card in there with rca outs so i'm sure it'll maintain quality to a point. but it's not what i really want for listening.

i don't have any bluray audio bds or even any dvd-audio dvds. i do have a couple of hdcds and a couple of can sacds my dad gave me that don't play in the panasonic. they do play in a sony dvp ns-325 in the kitchen, and in some of the drives in some of the pcs i have (i think it's more to do with windows 7 v windows xp because it only works on the win 7 pcs). i believe they were regifted because he didn't like them (ege bamyasi and tago mago).

(update: i actually just checked the disc and it plays now. i don't know why i had problems with it before. however, it's a hybrid disc that has sacd and cd layers not a sole sacd disc. maybe something got stuck or maybe i had a wrong setting on or something.)

the raspberry pi dac that handles digital audio in this system is technically better than the panasonic and was very cheap. that's the difference in 20 years of manufacturing.

Tones up to 24 bit/384kHz
Built-in transducer for high sound quality TI Burr Brown (TI PCM5122)
112db SNR dynamic range and -93db THD distortion factor
Available with RCA and Jack 3.5mm output connectors

the pi eliminates the motors and fans. it's super quiet.

i don't exactly know why dedicated digital audio players (wav, flac, mp3, alac) never hit the audiophile market. people got used to hooking their pcs up, or plugging in their ipods through the headphone out. there's not a lot of point in paying for a good playback audio system if the sound source sucks but there have been few solutions. a modern netbook is pretty quiet, but i've never seen a netbook with an rca out or even a digital out. you'd have to take it out through the headphones, or via usb card, which is largely just visual theatre (they connect to the digital headphone out). the pi with the audio hat was my solution for that and it sounds great, you just need to plug your 5 tb hd into it and it sends flacs out to your stereo in high quality, without fan noise.
the cd player i use is a five disc panasonic f-87. it has a cd mode and can output in 5 channel dvd-audio (24 bit) or in 2 channel cd audio (16 bit). it can also play hdcds but not sacds.

Audio Only mode (switches off video circuitry)
192kHz/24-bit audio D/A converter
audio signal-to-noise ratio 115 dB

price: was $350, got marked down to $130 over time.

you won't find a better dac, or a more affordable 5 disc player.

i send it out through the rca connections to a jvc amp, which is connected to kef corellis from the late 70s. it sounds spectacular.
do digital-audio-converters sound differently based on how much they cost?

the correct answer is that they do not.

you can check stats and specs on dacs. while you may find the odd one that is particularly terrible, mostly in very low end equipment from 40 years ago, the reality is that the specs on dacs have been standardized for decades. the companies don't save money by trying to sell you dacs with low specs, but they may make money by trying to upsell you dacs with specific brand names, or trivial differences.

the reality is that the cheapest dacs on the market in 2026 sound as good as the highest end ones do. there's no difference. it's just marketing, it's not science.
i would actually like to see a stronger attempt by the political left to do outreach to hindus, and make hindu cultural concepts more central to left-wing politics.

i don't see very much appealing in islam or muslim culture. the male supremacy, the religious laws and the authoritarianism are inherently conservative ideologies. islam is foundationally, fundamentally incompatible with liberalism or with socialism. it's a definitionally conservative ideology. there's a reason that muslim democrats are always conservatives. i have a certain cultural affinity with non-practicing jews, but i'm never going to align with male supremacist conservative muslims. islam aligns far better in the north american political spectrum with the christian right than it does with the secular left.

but hinduism shares a common origin with indigenous european paganism and indians and europens share a common cultural history that jews, christians and muslims are distinctly outside of. embracing hinduism in the west could be a type of decolonization from judaism.

i would be far more likely to support a hindu or a buddhist for high office than a muslim or a jew, or a christian, for that matter.
haley stevens is on the ballot tomorrow as a representative of her district, which has a large jewish population. is it possible that she was actually trying to save her seat? does she have internal polling suggesting that the republicans are not just going to win her riding at the senate level but are going to flip her seat? if she does win the seat, could she hold it as an independent?

all of these things are entirely possible.

i'm not making a prediction as to the outcome of the house. it's not because i haven't looked at it, it's because i think it's too difficult to project. this is a very hard problem to solve; it's certainly not as easy as applying national polling over a curve. the models being deployed are very inaccurate. i will tell you that i think it's going to be close. 

it will be amusing if haley stevens does win and el-sayed doesn't, and if the democrats then need haley stevens' vote to get to a majority. oops.

they should have waited a few days before reacting. outright endorsing mike rogers may not have been the best choice for her political career, unless she thinks she can hold her district as an independent, but she might turn out to be right. the democratic party may very well be the one that ends up looking foolish, again.

Monday, November 2, 2026

i needed an extra day but i'm done in here. i have one more vacuuming run on the floors to do, but i washed the pads of the steam map on sunday and redid all the exposed parts of the floors last night and it made a difference. the sheets are in the wash. while i can sill hear the squeaking in the walls, i haven't seen any signs of anything in here in a few days and i'm convinced they can't get in here. that means that's it, i'm done.

my door hasn't shown up yet so i'm going to have to call the guy, probably tomorrow.

there should be pictures and maybe a video up here in the next 24-48 hours. that's the last step before i get in the shower and shift to typing projects for a few weeks.
to summarize.

likely flips:
north carolina (d+1)

true tossups:
michigan (d-1)
ohio (r-1)

likely holds, unlikely flips:
maine (r hold)
iowa (r hold)
georgia (d hold)
new hampshire (d hold)

longshot flips:
texas (r hold)
alaska (r hold)
minnesota (d hold)

not in play:
kansas (r hold)
south carolina (r hold)
nebraska (r hold)
i think this is a more accurate map, based on the last minute data, and will more accurately reflect the results, tomorrow:




the polls were not wrong. 

rather, the journalism was very biased and very poor.
the new york times siena polls released yesterday look like better polling and they are better polls but they have some of their own caveats. these are still small sample sizes and the margin of errors are being oddly reported. the reported margins are less than they should be because the results are being reported as raw.

i often like raw results better than adjusted results but if you look at the answers they tell you why statisticians adjust the results.

this is one of the responses to that poll in michigan:


let's take the 15% of non-responses out. then , 40/85 = 47% and 45/85=53%.

but we know that trump got 49.73 and harris got 48.31 in michigan in 2024. this indicates that this sample has about a +5% democratic skew and should overrepresent democrats by about 5%.

it's consequently not really surprising that the result has el-sayyad ahead by ten points. they've clearly oversampled democrats rather substantively. crudely just cutting that down by 5% is not mathematically correct, but it would bring the survey results back into the margin of error. the results were adjusted, but they were clearly not adjusted correctly, and i'm willing to make accusations about intent. the reported result in the michigan poll should not be over 10%, it should be closer to 4-5%, once adjusted to correct for the oversampling of democrats. the next step is to apply a bradley effect, which we already saw in michigan in the primaries. the expected outcome should be a coin toss - this poll doesn't change the projection, which is too close to predict. it also doesn't adjust for the last minute stevens endorsement.

the truth is that the best polling prediction for the 2026 michigan senate race is the results of the 2024 senate race. not much has changed.

i don't see any good reason to think el-sayyad should do better against the same candidate in michigan two years later than elissa slotkin did. slotkin is clearly a much stronger candidate than el-sayyad is and better reflects the region's preference for moderate white women as candidates. she doesn't carry the islamist baggage that el-sayed carries, which should result in a worse outcome than a moderate jewish candidate, in michigan, which is a moderate state with a very small muslim population and a comparably sized jewish population. there are more buddhists and almost as many hindus in michigan than there are muslims or jews. all four are tiny minorities, but it's the hindus that are the fastest growing group and most likely to be a state-wide electoral force in the near future. for now, the moderate white women in  minnesota, wisconsin and michigan should be expected to outperform the minority candidates across the board. joyce benson should be expected to beat el-sayed by 5 or 10 points. 

if el-sayyad wins, it will be extremely close. conversely, if rogers does pull a win in michigan off, the conservative activists that blocked the moderate female in favour of a right-wing candidate with substantial religious baggage should be strongly criticized for it.

the same oversampling is clearly present in the other results and pretty startling in kansas, texas and iowa. in fact, i'd argue that a correct adjustment for over-sampling democrats should have the republicans ahead in these three states, and that the results were inaccurately reported.

so, the upside is that these are better quality polls with more transparent results. the downside is that the results show a dramatic oversampling of democrats across the board that was not properly adjusted for, and that was inaccurately reported with a clear political bias that suggests intent, and may even imply manipulation. 

i'd rather get good quality polling that was badly reported and that i can deconstruct than not get good polling at all. but don't trust the hype on this. the polling results actually normalize the data. the reporting of this data by the new york times is very poor.

in fact, i see enough evidence in the siena poll to conclude with confidence that the republicans are ahead in iowa, kansas and texas and should be expected to hold those three seats. those states are not really in play.

democrats are also strongly oversampled in these polls in ohio, maine and alaska but crude adjustments don't put the seats out of reach of democrats, they just return them to closer races. 

i still don't see any evidence that suggests alaska is anything more than extreme long shot. sherrod brown is an unusually strong candidate, but he has lost before, and the data is not conclusive. while the data in maine remains inconclusive, collins still has a strong incumbency effect.
canada should not have a single soldier in latvia. i would not consider it acceptable to have a single hair harmed on the head of a single soldier to protect a square mm of land in latvia.

get canada out of latvia.

bring these troops home.

Sunday, November 1, 2026

my suspicion is that haley stevens represents a growing silent majority in michigan that is more frustrated by the right-ward shift in the democratic party that el sayyad represents, and which the leadership just recently endorsed, than they are supportive of the republicans. the distance enforced by the outgoing governor is also instructive. they are going to quickly realize that they made a mistake and regret it, but it's too late now.

it's too late for this to affect the polling, which remains too close to make a decision, but i suspect that this will tip the race in favour of the republicans. there were already concerns about turnout. the actions taken by the candidate and the leadership, together, are going to amplify the existing issues, and it may even have some multiplier effects.

expect the republicans to have surprisingly strong results state wide in michigan on tuesday.
chuck schumer is a despicable person and has been for decades.

no surprises, there.
the drama unfolding in michigan is exactly what i predicted would happen and why i opposed nominating el-sayad. he does not represent the views of a substantive percentage of michigan democrats, who should hold to their principles and not to their party allegiances and should not vote for somebody with such deplorable, hard-right, crypto-fascist politics. if it walks like a nazi and quacks like a nazi, it's a nazi.

el-sayad is not an apolitical muslim caught in the middle of a debate he has nothing to do with and he's not being targeted for his ethnicity or his religion. he's a right-wing political activist that is running for office on an anti-semitic platform, is being endorsed by anti-semitic actors and has, to the end, run anti-semitic ads at arms distance, to allow for plausible deniability. he cannot be allowed to hide behind a facade of racism or play a victim's card. he's an aggressive belligerent and his campaign is the cause of the problem. israel is not an important election issue in michigan in 2026.

the polling is inconclusive for the various reasons i have already explained. my gut is that el-sayad never had a real chance and that he's going to lose the election. if that happens, the democrats should not call him back.

haley stevens probably made the wrong choice in endorsing the republicans. she probably should have instead endorsed a smaller party or advocated abstention from voting. she's not likely to survive the process, either. however, i applaud her for placing country over party and condemn the democratic leadership for it's collectivist mentality and it's irrational alignments that expose a wrong-headed attempt to grab naked power. chuck schumer does not agree with el-sayad on anything and strongly disagrees with him on almost everything. his position places party over country, and party over individual. it's a dangerous precedent - it's playing with fire.

elections are not a sport. it's not about picking a team and cheering it on. political allegiances are transactional in nature and rely on support for a political coalition resulting in material gains for the individual. when political coalitions shift or attempt to shift in ways that harm the material interests of members of that coalition, they should break from it, they should not maintain allegiance out of loyalty. stevens did the correct thing in principle if not in practice.

i would call on conscientious voices that are concerned about the rise of anti-semitism in the contemporary centre-left to avoid supporting el-sayad by voting for a smaller party, by abstaining or by voting republican, if they insist. it is more important that you hold to your principles and to your self-interest than that you support your party. the opposite approach - supporting a party that is becoming unprincipled out of inertia or loyalty - is how you end up in berlin, in 1934.
if the polling can't actually make an accurate prediction, does that make the polling useless?

not exactly.

it makes cheap polling useless. unfortunately, almost all media polling today is done on the cheap. in the modern united states, you need large sample sizes to get accurate polling results. i haven't seen a single accurate poll so far this cycle. they publish polls with less than 1000 responses and 5% margins of error in races that are likely going to be determined by a point or two. these kinds of polls are in fact essentially useless, especially if they don't use sampling.

you can't just add up sample sizes, either. the math doesn't work like that, but it's what the aggregates try to hack their way through, because the media wants a magic number to sell to it's audience.

in theory, a poll with closer to 5000 respondents that uses good sampling could get a result with a 1-2% margin of error. if the spread is more than 4 points, that poll would be seen as predictive.

but the elections nowadays are so close (often 1-2% spreads) that the kind of polling that is actually done across the board has little to no predictive value and if it happens to get the right outcome landing in the centre of the projected range of outcomes, it's really just via dumb luck. you'd need to be getting closer to 10,000 respondents to get predictive polling results in these very close races.

conversely, if you do bad polling with small sample sizes, you can get results that suggest a race is more competitive than it actually is, and the media might do that on purpose to generate headlines for clickbait and/or manipulate outcomes. i suspect that's the case in kansas and maybe in texas.

that doesn't make the polling completely useless, though. if media outlets want to keep doing these low quality surveys on the cheap, they need to start to be more honest about the results and state the truth of it upfront - the results of the polling data are not sufficient to make a projection. the results of the election are consequently unclear. that is a valid survey result - we did the polling and we don't know what's going to happen.

that's where we are in both the house and the senate, despite what the media is trying to project.
i just watched a very bad video by a very bad statistician named harry enten that made a very bad presentation with a very bad error in the middle of it.

it doesn't take a mathematical genius to know that there's a difference between +4 and +9.

yikes.

i have seen and heard very few statements that are more ignorant than that, especially coming from somebody that the liberal media presents as an "expert".

we need a quick math lesson. this isn't tough but it's necessary that the general population understands this in the digital media age. this is basic media literacy.

when you see a headline for a video on youtube that says:

democrats DESTROY republicans in new kansas poll, ahead by four points

what does the polling actually say?

what the polling says (if it uses standard methods, which is increasingly less likely. this is best case. in fact, the polling is probably worse than this in 2026) is that there's a 95% chance that the democrats will get a result between (x-m, x+m) and the republicans will get a result between (y-m, y+m) where m is the margin of error and, according to the headline, x-y=4, so y = x-4  and the second interval can be rewritten as (x-4-m, x-4+m).

if the headline says the democrats are ahead 52-48 and m=4 then that translates to the polling saying:

range of outcomes for democrats: (48, 56)
range of outcomes for republicans: (44, 52)

that means that what the poll says is that there's a 95% chance that the results will be between a maximum democratic victory of 56-44 and a maximum republican victory of 52-48, with the most likely outcomes in the middle of the distribution (generally following a normal or bell curve, or bell curve that has been transformed to the left or right of the curve). it does not say the democrats will win by 4 points, or even that the democrats will win at all, but it does say that that outcome is in the centre of the range of outcomes.

in this case, which is a reasonable representation of what you see in the media, there is no difference between the democrats being ahead by 8 and the republicans being ahead by 4. anything in that range of outcomes is in the poll's prediction range.

so, if the headline says the democrats are winning by 4 and the republicans win by 1 is that a polling miss? not if the margin of error is four points. the polling says that is in the range of outcomes to be expected, with 95% confidence. it does not say that the democrats are going to win by 4 points.

this conceptual error is at the root of why the polls are often seen to be "wrong". they aren't wrong. the journalists that wrote the news report didn't understand how to report them.

polling does not present a predicted result, it presents a range of possible outcomes. the media essentially never reports this correctly, but you still don't expect self-identified, even if visibly drunk, experts on tv to get it so startlingly wrong so flippantly.

why does the media do that?

because it wants to generate a good story. it wants viewers to think it's experts are clairvoyants and can consult their crystal balls to come up with good results with confidence and certainty, so you'll go back to their channel for the next fortune telling.

this is completely ignorant bullshit, but it's standard, and the consumer needs to be able to deconstruct it. a good introductory stats course (the standard text is by jay l devore, https://www.amazon.ca/Probability-Statistics-Engineering-Sciences-Devore/dp/0538733527) will help.
the ad in question in michigan is unquestionably anti-semitic and not in the realm of acceptable discourse. if you think the ad is ok, you should be condemned and boycotted. i would support aggressively acting against groups that support the messaging presented by the ad.

it's not ok to run as a nazi or using nazi tropes. that has to be condemned. there can be no tolerance, and it doesn't deserve a second chance. i would call on the democratic party to remove el sayed as a candidate as a result of it. if he wins the election, he should be forced to sit as an independent.

he has stepped away from the ad, but these are people he has deep connections to. that is not believable and there needs to be consequences.

don't vote for the nazi running for the democrats in michigan. once you condone this kind of anti-semitism, it can be extremely difficult to undo it. 

this should be the end of this candidate's political career.
maintaining animals in captivity is barbaric and should not exist at all. people that enjoy gawking at animals are psychologically unstable and should be diagnosed with a mental illness. i would call on the government to make this a priority. certainly, it should be seen as infinitely more important than denying access to suicide on demand.

i would rather have the sun come up very early and go down very early than have it come up very late and go down later, which is what happens when you shift to permanent dst. in detroit, the sun won't come up until like 9:00 am and go down until 19:00 in the dead of the winter. that's awful. so, i would not like to see permanent dst. i'd like to adjust it in the opposite direction, so that the sun comes up an hour earlier than standard time rather than the opposite. that would lead to a shortest day from 7:00-17:00 rather than from 9:00-19:00, and reassert more normal daytime hours through the rest of the year (sunrise before 7:00 am, sunset after 17:00 pm).

the shift they're proposing, which would have the earliest sunset at 19:00, is bizarre and the worst possible option. i like the dark evenings at 16:00 or 17:00 and i hate the late sunrises after 6:30.
i have now finally cut all of the wood for the various floating shelves in the kitchen and bedroom, put everything away in the kitchen (that is going away), have set up some extra temporary shelving for temporary items and have gotten every single box up off the floor in the front, the studio and the bedroom.

i have one more major run over the floors to do (which requires scrubbing on my knees with lysol and doesn't lend itself well to showers in between scrubbing) and then the great wash-up continues, after a mild pause for the last few weeks to get all the floors cleaned up.

i very seriously expect to actually finally be done by sunrise, and then finally get my sheets in the laundry this afternoon, and finally get in the shower over night tonight.

there's still no sign of a weather crash here. we're still consistently 15+. the temperatures this week are forecast in the 18-22 degree range, which is getting close to ten degrees above normal.

Saturday, October 31, 2026

the idea that us aid to israel is inflationary is certainly specious, stupid, offensive and anti-semitic. further, it has nothing to do with the election. this is odd, given that an actual cause of inflation - trump's tariffs on canada - is so readily available in michigan. you'd have to want to really go out of your way to blame the jews for being money grubbing to run an ad like that in the existing context.

further, tucker carlson is certainly a strange ally for somebody that has been, in my opinion incorrectly, marketing himself as a leftist.

the mouse seems to like the music, too. 

it's warm in here. nice smells. a few bugs. good tunes. what more would a mouse want?

the cat liked the tunes too when it was stuck in the vent. the rats hated it.

if you were ever looking for a hierarchy of musical inclination in lower mammals.
next five cds are...

antonio carlos jobim - stone flower (1970) 
billy cobham - spectrum (1973)
claude debussy - la mer / nocturnes (1905/1900)
do make say think - winter hymn secret hymn country hymn (2003)  
gustav holst - the planets / ralph vaughn williams - tallis fantasia (1918/1919)  
====
i mother earth - scenery and fish (1996)
man or astroman? - experiment zero (1996)
mike oldfield - ommadawn (1975)  <---- current start point
ministry - the mind is a terrible thing to taste (1989)
my blood valentine - loveless (1991)
====
pelican - city of echoes (2007)
pink floyd - the piper at the gates of dawn (1967)  <---current end point
pink floyd - atom heart mother (1970)
pink floyd - meddle (1972)
plateau - iceolator (2002)
======
sister machine gun - metropolis (1997)
skinny puppy - cleanse, fold and manipulate (1987)
sonic youth - sister (1987)
spiral beach - ball (2007)
ssris - effeminate godzilla-sized windchimes (2010)
============
swans - omniscience (1992)
talking heads - remain in light (1980)
the black heart procession - 2 (1999)
the chicago underground - flamethrower (2000)
the cure - disintegration (1989)
=========================
the grassy knoll - III (1998)
the mars volta - tremulant (2002)
the mars volta - deloused in the comatorium (2003)
the mars volta - frances the mute (2005)
the mars volta - amputechture (2006)


those are just the first ten 15 20 25 30 cds out of the boxes. i'll be updating in groups of five as they come out and onto the shelves (i have a five disc cd/dvd player in the listening room).

(skipping for now, will come back)

blogger music lists for existing cds (rebuilds):
discogs list (first 100 of many more to come): https://drive.google.com/file/d/1nNhi2Z4vRr0hEP5OiK-6xxZP1G_b9OBW/view

the music web - starting with miles davis - is going to have a new page at the deathtokoalas blog. the point is that i want to use the timeline feature so it's likely to lose the scrolling aspect. or i might design a new blog for it. 

But the English middle-class – good men of business as they are – saw farther than the German professors. They had shared their powers but reluctantly with the working-class. They had learnt, during the Chartist years, what that puer robustus sed malitiosus, the people, is capable of. And since that time, they had been compelled to incorporate the better part of the People's Charter in the Statutes of the United Kingdom. Now, if ever, the people must be kept in order by moral means, and the first and foremost of all moral means of action upon the masses is and remains – religion. Hence the parsons' majorities on the School Boards, hence the increasing selftaxation of the bourgeoisie for the support of all sorts of revivalism, from ritualism to the Salvation Army. 

And now came the triumph of British respectability over the free thought and religious laxity of the Continental bourgeois. The workmen of France and Germany had become rebellious. They were thoroughly infected with Socialism, and, for very good reasons, were not at all particular as to the legality of the means by which to secure their own ascendancy. The puer robustus, here, turned from day-today more malitiosus. Nothing remained to the French and German bourgeoisie as a last resource but to silently drop their free thought, as a youngster, when sea-sickness creeps upon him, quietly drops the burning cigar he brought swaggeringly on board; one-by-one, the scoffers turned pious in outward behavior, spoke with respect of the Church, its dogmas and rites, and even conformed with the latter as far as could not be helped. French bourgeois dined maigre on Fridays, and German ones say out long Protestant sermons in their pews on Sundays. They had come to grief with materialism. "Die Religion muss dem Volk erhalten werden" – religion must be kept alive for the people – that was the only and the last means to save society from utter ruin. Unfortunately for themselves, they did not find this out until they had done their level best to break up religion for ever. And now it was the turn of the British bourgeoisie to sneer and to say: "Why, you fools, I could have told you that 200 years ago!" 

when you get unrest like you're seeing in france, whether it's justified and political, or real and opportunistic, there has historically always been a clamp down afterwards. sometimes, it's a counter-revolution, which could not describe any reaction to a situation in france that is not revolutionary. in the 70s, that clamp down was called neoliberalism.

if you read the capitalist press, they're already talking about austerity in france due to some contrived debt. it's nonsense, certainly. but, the french are clearly too free and need a little more slavery, and they should expect that.

capitalism likes to market itself as benevolent but it's pretty brutal, in truth, and the white kids never see it coming.
do you know what white people used to do at christmas - christmas, for fuck's sake - before the jews converted them to christianity?

saturnalia.

look that shit up. and, that's real.
white people don't believe in god. it's not a new thing; it's been a problem in europe for centuries. as they don't believe in god, they're really hard to control. so, the roman elite tried to convert them to christianity, and it didn't work - they overthrew them instead. they want free speech and social services and all this shit that black people don't care about. you can't even enslave the half-black irish, you have to import good slaves from africa. they go to church, and they do what they're told. much better.

i'm making a caricature out of something that is very real. the engels text shows a deep depth of insight. read it, please.
it's not like the protocols of the elders of zion or something. they're not all secular jews. there's a couple of godless gentiles in there, too.
pop quiz

who said that religion is the opiate of the masses?

(a) karl marx
(b) adolf hitler
(c) john lennon
(d) maximillian robespierre
(e) josef stalin
there's going to be a group of bankers that are going to look at the situation and argue that the undisciplined children need more structure and control. they need more god, more religion, to keep them in line. they don't riot in saudi arabia, do they? look how well behaved the children are. 

bring back corporal punishment. 

for the sake of the children!

won't anybody think of the children?

that's what chomsky said happened in the 70s after the marches in the 60s, which were nothing like this. this is not 1968. it's not 1848. it's not 1796. it's more like the algerians managed to invade france before france got a chance to organize an expedition.

the marxist economist richard wolff has also written about and lectured about this. he's all over the internet.
i think that the fake leftists upset about the "great replacement theory" should read or reread this short text by engels.

the idea that the elite wants to re-import religion to save the godless white masses is not right-wing. it's literally in the appendix of the most basic socialist text ever written.

They had come to grief with materialism. "Die Religion muss dem Volk erhalten werden" — religion must be kept alive for the people — that was the only and the last means to save society from utter ruin. Unfortunately for themselves, they did not find this out until they had done their level best to break up religion for ever. And now it was the turn of the British bourgeoisie to sneer and to say: "Why, you fools, I could have told you that 200 years ago!"

this just in

ned flanders has confirmed that he's getting ready to launch a candidacy for the democrats in 2028.
this mouse is breaking my heart.

i continue to find minimal evidence of it in the apartment, but it is a mouse in here. i can hear it squeaking.

is it the same mouse that left me presents last year? i don't know.

it's making me sad that it keeps coming in here. frankly, if it stayed in the walls and ate the bugs, i would not care much. it must be eating the bugs; it's not eating my food. i am pretty clean, but i find crumbs a day or two later. i have seen little to no sign of roaches in here. so why does it come in here if there's no food for it to eat?

it must be coming in because it's warm, and as a result it seems to see me as a caretaker or a benevolent master, and i'm not. it seems to actually be following me around through the walls. i've started banging on the walls to scare it off and the squeak is shifting from a happy squeak to a sad squeak, as though it gets it and is sad at the rejection. i'm going to have to kill it if it keeps at it, even if i don't want to.

rodents are a difficult moral problem. these are smart animals that pose a threat to our health and need to be exterminated but they might be good pets or companions, otherwise. 

it's not destructive and it leaves almost no feces. almost is not good enough. we've coexisted for centuries. i wish there was a better solution.

i've made it very hard to get in here and it's kept the rats out, which was the intent. but this very small mouse is something like 10% of the size of the large rats that were in the ceiling last year and the things i did to keep the rats out and worked have not been enough to keep the little mouse out. it can live in the walls; the rats couldn't. it's substantively harder to block any holes it might use to get in because it's so much smaller.

i'm figuring it out and i will but if it keeps finding alternative ways to get in after i block the existing entrance points then it will have to die.
i got quite a bit done last night but i'm not quite done yet. soon.
i have supported regime change in iran for a long time and was happy to see the americans move to remove the fascists from power in tehran. i also support high oil prices and would encourage people upset about oil prices to seek ways to minimize their carbon footprint, in response.

i have been disappointed by the americans' tactics in carrying this regime change out. trump does not appear to want to implement regime change, he appears to want to force an agreement on the existing fascist state. this will not help the people of iran overthrow their fascist cult government. further, the many months that have been wasted on endless go-nowhere negotiations have simply made it more difficult to get to that end point.

trump appears to have given up on trying to convince the iranian dictatorship to sign an agreement. reports suggest that, rather than aggressively move to replace the dictatorship, he is planning to take out his frustration on iranian civilians by destroying civilian infrastructure. this is the opposite of what i tentatively supported.

the blockade, which i may have suggested, is likely to succeed in the long run but they need to put it in place for a long time and trump wants this done faster than that. they also need to actually blockade them.

i would still support a brutal operation to eliminate the iranian dictatorship by destroying it's infrastructure and eliminating it's leadership. that does not mean one or two people, it means wiping out the full theocracy - the judges, the police, the bureaucracy.

i am not interested in punishing the iranian people for the brutality of their dictatorship and don't understand the logic in it. if trump wants to aimlessly and illegally destroy iran for no reason and as a means to punish it's dictatorship for disobeying him, he should be removed from office by the people closest to him. that is not an acceptable policy.

this has to have an endpoint of regime change, and bounds for it need to be generated very soon.

Friday, October 30, 2026

i've made my point.

if we had decent poling with big sample sizes, we could make some better projections, but that rarely happens in senate races. when low quality polls with small sample sizes, bad methodologies and high margins appear to produce surprising outcomes, that may say more about the low quality of the polling than the likeliness of the result being projected.

if i did a poll of 500 people online that told me that piss tasted better than apple juice, i might question the accuracy of the poll before i changed my grocery list.

if these polls are completely wrong and trump wins kansas by 10 points, that should not surprise anybody. these polls suck.
what about michigan?

poll source landline or internet end
date
outcome valid
poll?
https://ippsr.msu.edu/sites/default/files/soss/soss95.pdf internet oct 19 in the margin no
https://www.clickondetroit.com/news/local/2026/10/27/democratic-candidate-el-sayed-leads-michigan-us-senate-race-new-poll-finds/ landline oct 22 in the margin yes
https://insideradvantage.com/insideradvantage-senate-surveys-mi-el-sayed-47-rogers-46-ia-hinson-47-turek-45-oh-brown-47-husted-44/ internet oct 22 in the margin no
https://polisci.msu.edu/_assets/MI_2026_pre_election_report.pdf mail-outs
sms
oct 23 these results
were manpulated
to "correct for bias".
this is invalid.
the outcome should
not be reported.
no
https://afightworthhaving.com/polling/2026/michigan landline oct 23 in the margin yes
https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/28856720-cnn-poll-conducted-by-ssrs-michigan-october/ internet
and
landline
oct 27 in the margin low quality
mixed sampling
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/abdul-el-sayed-haley-stevens-feud-michigan-senate/?intcid=CNR-02-0623 internet oct 27 in the margin no
https://x.com/joshorton/status/2115883461076545615 ? oct 28 in the margin no
https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2026/election_2026_michigan_senate internet
and
landline
oct 29 in the margin low quality
mixed sampling


the only poll with a result that showed el sayed ahead and wasn't in the margin was conducted by a researcher at the university of michigan who claims to have "corrected the results for biases". right. i would describe that as rather open political manipulation.

everything else is pretty weak, given that michigan is historically democratic.

in theory, el-sayed should benefit in michigan from the things republicans have going for them in texas and kansas. if the cultural inertia and ground game is stronger for the republicans in texas, it should be stronger for the democrats in michigan.

however, it's not clear he can rely on that. el-sayed has struggled to win over key components of the democratic coalition and he may struggle to get the vote out. the outgoing governor and his opponent in the primary have been silent or hostile.

you also have to take a bradley effect into account.

i consider michigan to be in play in ways that kansas and texas aren't. i will not claim the data supports a flip, but it certainly doesn't support a hold, either.
what about kansas?

less results, but they're better.
 
poll source landline or internet end
date
outcome valid
poll?
https://afightworthhaving.com/polling/2026/kansas landline oct 23 in the margin yes
https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/28856723-cnn-poll-conducted-by-ssrs-kansas-october/ internet
and
landline
oct 26 in the margin low quality
mixed sampling
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/10/30/we-polled-kansas-democrats-wanted-talk-republicans-not-so-much/ landline oct 26 d+1
past
margin*
yes
https://emersoncollegepolling.com/october-2026-kansas-poll-hamilton-maintains-edge-over-marshall/ internet oct 28 in the margin no


the washington post survey is notable but the analysis posted with the survey indicated that democrats in kansas were eager to talk about politics on the phone and republicans weren't. that makes sense to me. i did phone work as a kid. in kansas, democrats are far less numerous, and perhaps a little lonely.

these results are neither conclusive nor convincing. again, it's extremely unlikely that the democrats flip kansas, given the on the ground difficulties. the data does not support the idea that this is going to flip.


if i was to describe a "high quality poll", it would have random sampling and be conducted with phones. online sampling is not polling, it's political manipulation. averaging out 100 bad polls (which is what silver does) and trying to weight it by applying a pile of arbitrary personal biases is the worst approach possible. snapshot polling is preferable to aggregate analyses.

i guess i need to do this.

there's a list of recent polls at the texas senate wiki site. let's cut it off on oct 19th, the day before two weeks before the election. which polls are high quality and which aren't?

poll source landline or internet end
date
outcome valid
poll?
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-texas-senate-race-galloping-toward-photo-finish landline oct 19 in the margin yes
https://emersoncollegepolling.com/texas-2026-poll-toss-up/ internet oct 19 in the margin no
https://cdn.votehub.com/pdfs/VoteHub_Verasight_Oct_2026_Texas_Report_D8A925D0.pdf internet oct 20 in the margin no
https://www.univision.com/noticias/politica/poll-univision-texas-latinos internet oct 21 in the margin no
https://www.activote.net/polls/2026/tx-u-s-senate/2026-10-21/ internet oct 21 in the margin no
https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2026/election_2026_texas_senate internet
and
landline
oct 21 in the margin low quality
mixed sampling
https://www.wfaa.com/article/news/politics/elections/new-poll-talarico-abbott-lead-as-early-voting-in-texas-nears-close/287-7f4cca13-6e1d-433c-9041-727931b591cd internet
and
landline
oct 25 in the margin yes
https://254labs.io/news/2026-10-tx internet oct 26 in the margin no
https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/28856724-cnn-poll-conducted-by-ssrs-texas-october/ internet
and
landline
oct 27 in the margin low quality
mixed sampling
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1UACnmnM84Dd1hU0l6iqHNgXkyh5oCelO/view internet oct 27 in the margin no
https://www.activote.net/polls/2026/tx-u-s-senate/ internet oct 28 in the margin no
https://quantusinsights.org/polling/f/texas-survey-paxton-up-one-abbott-ahead-by-five internet
and
landline
oct 28 in the margin low quality
mixed sampling


if there is further polling in texas, it's not at wikipedia.

all of the polling, both real and fake, is in the margin, and it is all mixed sample or worse and consequently of low quality. the only high quality poll was done for fox news two weeks ago and reported a result in the margin of error. the cnn poll intentionally generated a higher than normally acceptable margin of error by using weird methodology and then put the democrats on the outside fringe of that large margin, which inflated the spread through bad sampling practices, and is suspected political manipulation for that reason.

given the myriad of real world factors working against the democrats in texas on election day, it is highly unlikely that they will win this seat. that will not be a polling error. the polling is inconclusive.

i consequently see no reason to expect this seat to flip.
 
we've been here before, as well. remember beto o'rourke?
i actually don't think that gay people should be allowed to get married, but i don't think that straight people should be allowed to get married, either. i support the total abolition of marriage as a secular concept. the state should tax people as individuals. (personal) property should be owned by individuals. things like health care coverage should apply to individuals. marriage, as a state-sanctioned idea, is a relic of feudalism and should cease to exist.

if people want to get married as a religious sacrament, i have no interest in this, and the state should have no interest in it, either. it should have no legal relevance. heterosexual religious marriage contracts should be null and void and irrelevant in a legal sense.

it would follow that if gay people can find a religion that supports their ideas about marriage, that's their prerogative, but the state should have no interaction with such things. religious gay marriage contracts should also be null and void and irrelevant in a legal sense.

i do not support allowing gay people to adopt children and think that when children that are born into heterosexual relationships find themselves with gay parents the court should award sole custody to the heterosexual partner explicitly on the basis of the gay parent being gay. i agree with arguments about homosexuality being a mental health issue and would support a limited reintroduction of homosexuality to the dsm.

while i support the state leaving the gays alone and not attacking or persecuting them, i have no interest in the politics of homosexual rights, and don't support initiatives to integrate the state with gay politics. 

i am transgendered. i am not gay. i support maintaining heterosexual norms in society, broadly. subversion has a place in the underground, not in the mainstream. homosexuality belongs underground.
i would likely vote for the democratic candidates if i lived in ohio or maine, but no in texas, michigan or kansas. and i'll say again that i'd rather vote for ashley hinson than josh turek, and it's not a difficult choice for me.
all that a poll that has the democrats ahead by +2 with a 4 point margin of error says is that the outcome is in the margin of error. if the republicans win, that is not a polling error. rather, thinking it is a polling error is an error in reading the polls.

if you have 20 polls that have the democrats ahead but in the margin of error in 20 states and they lose all of them, that is still not a polling error. it's arguably reflective of a slight polling bias, but the polls don't say the democrats are barely ahead. the polls says that the outcome is unclear.

then, when you pile on incumbency effects, get out the vote, voter turnout demographics (age, income) and cultural inertia, these in-the-margin polls in red states all tip back towards the republicans. every single one of these flips is independently extremely unlikely, except perhaps north carolina (where the democratic candidate is popular and has an edge for that reason. that's local, not national. it has nothing to do with trump). that's the right mathematical model - every senate race is an independent experiment and a weighted coin toss in the republicans' favour, and the likelihood that the democrats will win more than two seats becomes extremely remote.
i believe this is footage of a young adam hamilton, from the 90s.

i just want to summarize what the democrats are running on

- in texas, the democatic candidate has refused to criticize fossil fuel development or refuse money from oil companies. as a leftist, i would not vote for the democratic candidate if i lived in texas.
- in kansas, the democrats are running a bigoted christian pastor that thinks non-christians are all going to hell. as a leftist, i would not vote for the democratic candidate in kansas.
- in iowa, they democrats are actually running transphobic ads on tv and the republican candidate is clerly the less conservative option. if i was in iowa, i would vote for the republican candidate, because she's less conservative - because i'm a leftist.
- in michigan, they're running a muslim with a history of supporting right-wing social policies and extreme right, fascist groups in the middle east. if i was in michigan, i would not vote for the democratic candidate, as a leftist.

these aren't left-wing political candidates. they're on the moderate right to the far right. 

i will reiterate that the data does not support the idea of a democratic "blue wave", which is an idea that is nonsensical in the american political system. the data says that a republican hold is overwhelmingly likely. an extremely good night for the democrats would be a two seat pickup.

however, if the democrats manage to win these seats - and you should not listen to nate silver. he's always wrong about everything. why does the media keep quoting this guy? he has the worst track record in polling that i've ever seen. his model sucks. you'd be better off asking a poli sci major. i've spent hours correcting him, debunking him and ripping him apart in this space - it's not reflective of some political shift to the left, it's because the democrats are moving hard to the right and picking up issues of concern to far right voters.

the senate election is not a single national election for one candidate. trump is almost irrelevant. the senate election is a series of independent experiments taking place in isolation of each other. the polling (which is low quality across the board. don't accept the label "high quality polling". that's right out of orwell.) does not support the projection that several unlikely to very unlikely events will happen at the same time.

when media messaging all focuses on a handful of talking points - which is what the democratic media s doing - it suggests an attempt to control a message and manufacture a narrative. that's actually a voter suppression tactic. what democratic media appears to be doing in projecting a landslide is attempting to suppress the vote. it's not based in reality, polling or science - it's nonsense, projection, faith and magical thinking.

Thursday, October 29, 2026

the bill also contains proposed restrictions on free speech.

i would not support those.
i would also support making rioters found guilty of vandalism ineligible for student loans until they pay off their fines and complete their community service.
the liberal media is continuing to falsely insinuate that the rioting had anything to do with the protests.

the idea of forcing vandals to pay for the mess they created is not new and not regressive. a polluter pays principle, applied to rioters, is actually quite progressive and enlightened. that's not characteristic of the sitting french government, but this is a forward-thinking policy that should be adopted by more jurisdictions, as technology brings us closer to communism, and this kind of thing has no political purpose, but is just primitive barbarism by vandals, thieves and backwards-thinking reactionary type people.

i have learned the hard way the last few years that arts majors in general can't do simple arithmetic. they are not just hopelessly bad with data and math; they have the cognitive capacities of young children, when it comes to analyzing data. arguing with an arts major is like arguing with a ten year old.

i'm telling you the blunt reality about the midterms. this is not a general election. this is a series of completely unrelated experiments that are happening. further, there is no existing system in canada or the uk that has any passing resemblance to congressional elections in the united states - no senate and no comparable house. voters in kansas are being asked to pick a democrat as the more godly candidate. voters in maine are being asked to vote with their guts instead of their brains. there's cultural reasons they keep electing a republican. these hyperlocal races about specific issues on the ground cannot be measured with national polling, which includes states like california and new york that aren't even having elections. it's a completely fucking wrong way to look at solving this problem.

of the roughly 10 independent experiments that will be performed on tuesday, none of them have an obvious outcome. these are all very uncertain experiments. even the races that are being presented as having more certain results, like georgia, are not clear. 60% is not very good odds when there's only two outcomes. that means that the opposite thing happens four times every time you run ten experiments.

the mathematical theory - and it has a lot of empirical support - is that you just multiply the probabilities together. probability theory is an analytical theory with empirical support. it works, but it's axiomatic.  it's actually more of an art than a science. probability theory is not objectively true, it's a way to approximate an idea that isn't entirely quantifiable. but empirical tests show it's roughly accurate.

the theory makes a pretty clear prediction - as no single one of these events is very likely, multiplying them together very quickly decreases the likelihood that several of them will happen simultaneously. that's not a "political analysis" and it's not my opinion (these are two different ways to describe the same thing). it's just a simple application of high school mathematics. it is the correct way to look at solving this problem.

that being said, i could give you my gut feeling, too. it's not worth much. opinions are like assholes, right? i'm used to being an asshole, here. if you want my opinion, instead, here you go.

my gut tells me that the democrats will win north carolina and the republicans will win michigan. nothing else will change. 

the result is no shift in power, except in states like texas and kentucky (and south carolina), where trump replaces a critic with a crony.

that's my gut.

but the math says we have a number of independent experiments being conducted and that the democrats are not very likely to succeed at any one of those experiments. that makes it exceedingly unlikely that they will succeed at many or all of those experiments and overwhelmingly likely that the republicans hold the senate. that's the math.

you can listen to the math or you can listen to the arts majors with their opinions, or you can do both, and weight them according to their relative value. the opinions presented by the poli sci majors should not be considered very valuable, in this hierarchy. but it's up to you. the math doesn't care, in the end.
i've had difficulty getting days started this week.

there's not much left to do, but the floors in the front hall have been a bit of a bottleneck. they are done. so i should be able to finish up this afternoon and then get in the shower tonight.
the original weather network post seems to have been mostly plagiarized from this site:

i have made many arguments in this space rejecting the theory that ssws are caused by "planetary waves" moving upwards. this theory is not permitted by thermodynamics. energy should only move downwards. for that reason, i hold to an alternate cause for ssws, namely solar effects in conjunction with the greenhouse effect. this isn't completely relevant, immediately speaking. i'm just being transparent - i don't accept the theory, here, i think it's wrong.

i do accept the data and i have been to his site many times. he puts a lot of effort into what he does. i want to focus my critique on generating bounds around his modelling, and reinterpreting it.

his models are actually projecting no polar vortex formation this year and he's having difficulty working that out, conceptually, or articulating it. that's what i see in his presentation - 2026/2027 is the first year with no polar vortex on record. it could come back next year. maybe. he's connected the yearly break up of the polar vortex to bursts of cold air but what he's describing is that not happening.

the temperature in banff right now is not polar vortex cold, not at that latitude or that altitude. polar vortex cold in banff is much, much colder than that. it's a little cooler than seasonal, but if that's the coldest we've got for the year, and there's not going to be a strengthening, or a subsequent collapse, it could mean we could get through the year without substantive bursts of cold air at all.

this would not be caused by el nino. at all. this would be 100% greenhouse gasses and an apparent tipping point sneaking up on us.

it could come back next year but it will still be quite concerning if the polar vortex is unable to organize this polar night. i think that would be a first that we know of.
this guy's a dipshit. he's smashing his rattle and stomping his feet. baah. baaaah.

there seems to be a dip in cold air resulting from yearly decreases in sunlight in the north. it happened to hit bc. it might have gone in any direction depending on localized effects. 

that has nothing to do with el nino. it's not an el nino forecast at all. it's a typical polar autumn effect, heading into polar night.

however, the fact that it did dip in bc is curious because the pacific is in fact quite warm. in an exceptional el nino year, you would expect the warmer air to at least slow the cold air down. the cold air ran right over it like it wasn't there at all. so much for el nino, huh?

his explanation, which is an attempt to explain away the mistake he made earlier, is just digging himself deeper into a hole. he should just backtrack and admit it but dipshits tend to be arrogant. he doesn't explain why el nino causes the jet stream to dip, or does he even try. he just admits that el nino wasn't powerful enough to block the spillage and suggests it might be later in the year.

well, ok. but it looks to me like it's probably already peaked. i wouldn't count on that.

it looks to me like the super el nino is just a fucking bust.

again, the issue is temperature differences, not absolute temperatures. a lot of people are missing this, not just this guy. the "super el nino" is a degree or two higher than normal. arctic amplification is running over 10 degrees. that means the change is running in the opposite direction and, despite the super el nino, the pacific is colder than average, in relative terms. did you understand that?

this is going to disrupt and overturn historical weather patterns so that you can no longer predict the weather by relying on old patterns. we call that climate change.

for now, he was right in the first place to point out that the lack of organization in the north is concerning. it suggests that the polar vortex is slowing down and may have difficulty forming, which is an expected eventual outcome of global warming.

first frost events in southern ontario usually happen around oct 15th and one should have happened by now, but it hasn't. there were a few lows around 5 degrees but that isn't there yet.

the forecasts for the next 10-15 days have lows around 10 degrees, which is closer to a historical high than a historical low.

something i'm hearing and seeing from denialists is a denial of the idea that climate feedbacks are going to end winter. it would depend on where you live, but that is in fact a projected outcome of long term climate change over the next several decades. do not listen to denialists refusing to accept the models. you might not live long enough to see it, but winter is on it's way to an end in southern ontario, certainly. the absence of a polar vortex, in the long run, will be a tipping point into a winterless climate in this region, but it's not imminent.

for now, i'll keep an eye on those frost dates.

if we can get to december without a frost, that is pretty exceptional. it's not currently in the long range.
the jewish yellow star of david badge is one of the most identifiable symbols of the holocaust.

in fact, the idea originated was practiced in muslim spain, where christians also had to wear a blue cross. it originated in the heart of the so-called golden age, in syria, and as early as the 8th century. it's just one of the many examples of nazism drawing from islamic practices.
what of "islamic tolerance"?

no.

the myth of islamic tolerance is about a tax. muslims would allow a minimal set of non-muslims called "people of the book" to exist if they paid the tax. they would be persecuted if they refused the tax. this meant jews, christians and a couple of syncretic religious ideas that come from jewish scripture but are none of the most populous three judaic offshoots. it didn't apply to hindus, zoroastrians, european pagans, central asian animists, buddhists or african religions - they were infidels that would need to be converted or enslaved.

how much "islamic tolerance" ever existed in one place at one time was variable and in constant flux. it was always a tentative, delicate idea.

in fact, muslim rulers from spain to baghdad had a tendency to enjoy crucifying christians. they seem to have thought it was funny or something.

there were a few muslim rulers that were relatively tolerant and a few that were bloodthirsty assyrians in character. it was generally somewhere in between, but it ran the spectrum.

i also want to clarify a few points about the translation movement.

the translation movement is often presented as a great, benevolent thing. we're told that stupid white people forgot how to read, and the arabs saved our ass by translating everything, which saved roman civilization from collapse. then, we got it all back from arabic spain. 

each of these points is a half-truth at best.

it is true that there was a massive movement to translate greek and persian sources into arabic, but the traditionalist narrative never asks two key questions:

(1) why did the muslims want to translate everything - everything - into arabic?
(2) what happened to the texts after they translated them?

the answer to the first question was to censor them and in that sense they didn't just not save greek civilization from self-ruin but came close to erasing it. when we find pre-islamic texts by key authors like euclid or plato and compare them to post-translation texts, we learn that the translation process deleted or altered large sections of the classic texts. a good portion of the classical literature that we have today comes to us in the form of vandalized translations, that were severely altered to be in line with muslim theology. if aristotle said something in the original source that the muslim clerics didn't agree with, it was deleted or even reversed in the translation.

the answer to the second question is that they burned them after they translated then because (1) the original versions were no longer to be read (the idea was to force you to read the arabic and not the greek, latin or persian) and (2) the original versions were not consistent with sunni orthodoxy. in some cases, texts were not translated at all, they were just burned.

this narrative about the muslims saving the books is consequently very misplaced. and how bad was it?

well, compare the states of classical greek, latin and persian literature in post-renaissance space. constantinople was eventually conquered by the turks, but the arabs could not get through the theodosian walls and never did. they got to sicily but never to rome and never to paris or london. however, they completely wiped out the persians.

today, we do have a concept of latin and greek classical texts that were preserved in the byzantine empire and to a lesser extent in the rump papal states that followed after 476. further, the romans were able to get out of constantinople alive. there were massive waves of refugees from greece to rome after 1452 and they brought a lot of books with them to italy. this was the true cause of the renaissance -  roman back-migration to italy after the turkish conquest. it is for that reason that we do still have original copies of the texts that continued to be read in greece, absent the arabic vandalism and censorship to remove anything offensive to islam. greek sources of latin texts are always better than arabic sources when they can be found for that reason and the amount of information back translated from spanish arabic sources was consequently far less than the amount back translated from greek sources. of course, they then had the pope to deal with, too.

we have no extent classical persian writings. none. not a sentence. we have the behistun inscriptions carved into the rockface in the desert. everything else got burned. we have no trace of it anywhere, except in difficult to trace lineages from extent arabic sources. the romans did something similar when they wiped out carthage. we're told the phoenicians gave us the alphabet (and that might be somewhat untrue. it might have come from ancient greece first.), but we don't have a sentence of surviving phoenician writing. the romans destroyed everything. the only trace of it is in the form of texts translated to latin, and difficult to trace source lineages.

if the arabs had sacked constantinople would they have wiped greek literature out entirely rather than supposedly have saved it? the persian evidence suggests they likely would have.

as mentioned before, this is a consequence of a fluke of geography. the libraries of the ancient world were in hot dry places, deserts, because the texts keep longer. so, the libraries were in carthage, alexandria, damascus and babylon and not in rome or athens or paris, where they have more humid air and experience winters. rome woke up with it's libraries in the hands of foreigners who were hostile to them and aggressively vandalizing them and no way to stop it. persia never woke up at all.

there was a lesser known library in the medieval period in a distant saharan checkpoint called timbuktu. the romans explored a lot of africa but didn't move out of the desert. there's evidence of the romans settling far down the atlantic coast and romans placing military checkpoints in chad and in tanzania. there were expeditions to the african great lakes. they lost a war against nubia (modern day sudan) and didn't go further. the ancient literature talks of the italians disliking the african climate and preferring to trade with the locals. it was outside the roman sphere of influence, but they were there.

there are vague descriptions of roman scholars escaping into the desert and finding refuge in timbuktu. there's good evidence that there was a large italian population in the city.

it was destroyed like the other libraries were.

if you want a concrete takeaway from this - you are probably not an encyclopedic nerd with a photographic memory like i am - it's to be careful with authoritarian sources. history has biases. it is not always written by victors anymore, but it always seeks to play favourites. always be skeptical. always read dissenting views and take differing arguments into consideration. always be prepared to alter your perception of what is true and to expand your concept of what you were told is true.