Friday, October 23, 2020

ultimately, students that demonstrate a consistent inability to understand context when necessary should be failed and told to focus on something less intellectually demanding, in their lives.

i hope the school takes the right position, but i suspect they'll cede to the money involved, unfortunately.
i'll let him explain it.

so, you tell me you're "offended".

and, i'll tell you that if you can't handle having an adult conversation using adult language then you should go sit at the kid's table for a while and come back when you've grown up.
words have meanings, and are never used incorrectly, in the proper context.

those who would seek to eliminate words from the language, or implement a newspeak of sanitized terms, must be resisted - and doing so must be of exceedingly high priority.

the first step to allowing the state to determine how you think is to let them control the language. 

it is the first step towards fascism.
it's always good to make time for the classics.

the issue's been dealt with, and they should just expel anybody that keeps whining about it, under the argument that they're defaming the school and are not intellectually mature enough to attend a university.

mitch mcconnell doesn't look to me like he's suffering from a health condition - although that kind of bruising may be a side effect of chemo, or of steroids - so much as he looks to me like he got in a fight.

gotta wonder if somebody got sent to rough him up.
leger released a last minute poll. it's one of those wonky split sample things, but at least there's some sampling.

and, this is what i expected to see:

those are the actual numbers. 

the survey companies then assume that the 14% of people that answered in some non-standard way are equally likely to vote for any of the parties and reweight the outcome, accordingly. but this is always the primary source of error in polling, in canada. i keep yelling at them to stop doing that, and they keep doing it.

the undecideds are never truly randomly distributed, in the end. the data companies need to be neutral, so it's up to somebody like myself to try to read the polls and figure out what they actually say.

the balance of the data - however sparse it is - suggests that there are two major swing blocks in bc right now:

1) rural voters trying to choose between the liberals and conservatives. they may rather vote conservative, but i suspect they'll mostly actually vote liberal.
2) ndp/green fence voters that want to vote green but don't want the liberals to win. if the headlines are telling them an ndp majority is obvious, they may be more likely to vote green. oops.

there is a third, smaller block:
3) upper class voters in the downtown core may opt for the ndp instead, this time, instead of their preferred liberals. this will likely have an effect on the popular vote, without affecting the outcome much.

so, i strongly suspect that that 42% is about where the ndp will end up, in the end - a modest bump. they may get 43, 44 - something like that. suggestions that they're running over 45% do not appear to be grounded in meaningful evidence.

further, that 14% should distribute partly to the greens and mostly to the liberals, who will likely end up somewhere above 35.

so, i'm going to produce a wide popular vote projection, after all:

ndp: 40-45
liberals: 35-40
greens: 15-20

and, as stated, trying to predict a majority or minority from that is foolish.
no, seriously, though.

how would the government react if i got arrested and told them i was only going to negotiate with the queen?

"sir, your rules are bourgeois and the force of your officers is of no legal consequence. you exist only to uphold capital. so, i will only communicate with the queen, or with her direct representative. bring me to her at once."

they'd put me in the fucking crazy house.
these people think they can conduct polling without sampling.

it's madness.
the liberal party in bc is a very strange vehicle, in that it came out of the social credit movement, which started off as a type of right-wing collectivism, but ended up as a christian conservative movement. they ran the province for decades, and then morphed into the liberal party. so, you have this weird reality in bc where the liberals are the political vehicle for the most right-wing voters - and nobody likes it, not the liberal party and not the voters that support them. it's a sort of a conservative-liberal coalition to defeat the "socialists", but it's success really relies on how scary the ndp is - otherwise it falls apart.

if you look at the data closely, it seems like the ndp are pretty much flat - they may have picked up a point or two on both sides, but it's not a big swing.

the liberals, on the other hand, have dropped 15 points, and the recipient seems to have initially been the bc conservatives, and now may be nobody at all.

so, i don't have any data....

....but, i wonder if the shape of the curve is defined by quiet right-leaning liberals ducking out, which would inflate the ndp vote by decreasing the sample size. you couldn't tell with online polling, because they don't sample.

i also mentioned the effect of strengthening ndp support in the downtown core, which is unlikely to flip many seats.

again: i'm not making a prediction based on essentially nothing.

but, everything says "the ndp numbers are inflated" and you should expect a closer result than is being broadcast. i don't feel confident suggest consequences from that closer result.
this is a very weird graph.

are the liberals actually bleeding support primarily to their right?


so, what do i think of the polls in bc?

i don't think there's been many, honestly. or, at least, i don't think there's been many good ones.

the thing about online polling is that it comes with a pretty hefty bias towards young people who bunch up in specific places, so when you have a party like the liberals in bc that draws mostly from rural voters and is a cycle or two away from dying off, you have to work in that bias. it kind of follows that if all the online polls suggest the ndp is up five-ten points from where they were, there's not a lot of evidence towards movement at all.

what do the telephone polls - that use mathematical sampling techniques - actually say?

there hasn't been one since the end of september, which doesn't help anybody right now.

so, what i'm going to tell you is that i don't have any data to work with, and i consequently can't help elucidate something that doesn't exist - except to suggest to you that the metrics that we have seen would be expected to skew highly towards the ndp, and you should probably expect a close result than is being projected. there is also a weak signal suggesting that the liberal party's right may be disinterested at the moment and being underpolled; if they show up after all, we could see a surprise.

i don't have enough data to predict a majority or minority. 

sorry.
it's really a reflection of the juvenilization of society that young adults in university are having debates over saying bad words. i don't want to hear a debate about "academic freedom", i want to address the issue as one of intellectual maturity, and send the whiners back to elementary school.

it makes me cringe every time i see an adult revert to the mind of an eight year-old as they mutter the phrase "the n word", like they're afraid they'll get their mouth washed out with soap.

all you niggers out there need to grow the fuck up.

you know that jim henson was a massive zappa fan, right?

(this song is actually about drug addicts)

but, wait!


so, this is the study that the previous study i linked to sources:


The majority of the food samples analyzed in this study have been obtained from the local market and food stores in Novi Sad (Serbia). Wheat grain (Triticum aestivum), all durum wheat (T. durum), triticale (Triticosecale), barley (Hordeum vulgare), and rye (Secale cereale) samples were obtained from the collection of samples of the Laboratory of the Institute of Food Technology. 

so, that study was collecting durum wheat samples from a lab, which had been sitting there for who knows how long, and fucked with who knows how many times and how many ways. we all may like seconds of pasta, but these second are sloppy, indeed.

i'll stick with the usda numbers, meaning i'm ok with betaine in the pasta bowl, after all.
but, wait.

if you go back with the pasta, what i typed was:

pasta - 188*.55 = 103.4 (c)

i must have misread the data as 188 mg/100g, in which case 55% of that is 103.4.

but, the data is 188 μg/g which is 188 μg/g*(1 mg/1000 μg) = .188 mg/g = 18.8 mg/100g.

then, 18.8*.55 = 10.34.

but, the usda source (see previous posts) has the data for spaghetti, dry, enriched listed at 140 mg/100g, and then 140*.55 = 77 mg is the correct calculation, and actually enough to not require a supplemental source.

so, what is the right answer? that's a big spread.

i dunno.

i'll think this through soon.
so, the question i need to ask myself with the bran is how much i need to get enough betaine, and in the process i found a conversion factor error with the pasta - it should say 10.34, not 103.4. so, i need to do a comprehensive review of the data entries to make sure i'm sure that everything is right. i'm also not clear what the right answer for the pasta bowl is, as that puts me back in the orange. i've done a few of these self-reviews, and i'm sure i'll do a few more. it's a part of the process.

right now, i need to know how much i need in my fruit bowl, and the answer is:

165 - (.136 + .3 + 1.05 + .375 + 2.048 + 1.034 + 45.2925 + .217) = 114.5475

so, i need 125 mg or so in the fruit bowl.

the usda survey of choline suggests that the brand i bought (kellog's all bran original) has 360 mg of betaine per 100 g of cereal.

that is about on par with the 320-410 mg/100g data presented here:

360x = 125 <---> x = 125/360 = 0.34722222222

so, 35 g should be sufficient. as it is, the serving size is 36 g. i'll just stick with that.

i am going to prepare this meal now - i'm a little behind from running around the last few days. but, in that 36 g i'll also get:

60% b1
10% b2
25% b3
8% b5
10% b6
10% b9
0% c, d & e

while i clearly will still need the vector, i may be able to reduce the amount of some ingredients, with this.

for the first meal, at least, i'm going to throw it in and then get to adding everything up. i will do my review of the data as i enter in the bran, so the next update should be triple-checked, for the fruit bowl, at least. i'll do a similar review for the past bowl when i enter in the sunflower seed data.

how much betaine do i need for the pasta bowl, now?

165 - (.2 + 10.34 + .42 + .44 + 106+ .088) = 47.512

360x = 50 <---> x= 50/360 = 0.13888888888. so, i'd need 15 g of all bran in the pasta bowl...

it's an idea i should consider.

for now, i need to make some cereal.
so, i just urinated and it was a mellow yellow.

i don't seem to have iron issues, then - which is something i'd have a reasonable concern about. but, it seems fine, for now.
you can imagine this creeped me out a little, but it only took a few seconds to figure it out.


i haven't urinated much at all in the last 24 hours, but it took me a lengthy amount of time to consume a meal with 160 g of beets and it passed on the first movement, within about ten hours of consumption.

that meal had 500 g of red peppers, 220 g of carrots & 130 g of lime as well, so i'm comfortable with it passing quickly.

i've been pooping orange since i switched to carrots; beets are going to be a normal part of my diet, now, so the purple shit is something i'll need to get used to.
.....and, actually, that was a very fast comparison - mangoes blow them both away across the board.

so, i'm going to replace the nectarine with the mango, which seems to be quite plentiful in the stores, here - even more so than peaches or pears.

that will floor the c, as well - enough that i could reduce the strawberries a little. it will also introduce a supplemental source of beta-carotene.

i'm going to do this tentatively, though, and not update the data right away. i need to carefully check things like cost and weigh the mangoes and whatnot. i think mangoes are the better choivce all around, but i'll need to do some shopping in early november to be sure.

for now, it's going to be nectarines for a week and a bit, anyways.