today's usage stats are...

wan: 5637276 down / 1934306 up
lan: 3873317 down / 2636558 up
wireless: 0 down / 0 up

this works out to:

wan: 8.06 gb down / 2.77 gb up
lan: 5.54 gb down /  3.77 gb up

are those number correct?

no.

there was some low bandwidth streaming at youtube overnight, but it didn't add up to 5.5 gb. that's way, way too much bandwidth.

so, i'm going to reset everything again, powercycle, etc.

laws against commerce on the sabbath is the kind of fascist bullshit you'd expect in a country like iran, not something you'd expect to see in a free society.

that must be resisted and defeated.

this is a central component of our existing legal foundation.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R_v_Big_M_Drug_Mart_Ltd

this has already been ruled unconstitutional repeatedly and i would stand in solidarity with businesses that defy this order and stay open.

i would encourage somebody to challenge this, legally.

https://montrealgazette.com/news/quebec/most-quebec-stores-will-be-closed-on-sundays-as-coronavirus-cases-mount/wcm/ca148c14-0557-4145-b5ff-d173473baef8/

alright, ontario. let's see a show of force against fascism, here.

this is not constitutional, and it's not evidence-based. it's just fascist bullshit.

ontarians rights are under attack?

what do we do? stand up, fight back!

let's overrun these barricades. let's march through the streets. let's make sure that the government knows that it can't do this kind of bullshit and get away with it, that it needs to be addressing the problem at it's source, and not passing laws that make everybody suffer, based on no evidence at all.

let's put doug ford in his place, on this.

https://toronto.citynews.ca/2020/03/30/ontario-closes-all-outdoor-recreational-facilities-due-to-coronavirus/

well, this is nice to see, anyways - taking advantage of a crisis in a good way.

https://toronto.citynews.ca/2020/03/29/toronto-homeless-coronavirus-hotels/

i'm not a park person myself, but i'd challenge you to present me any actual science that suggests this is in any way dangerous to anybody. not speculation, not hyperbole, not "expert advice" - actual peer-reviewed science.

*crickets*

so, i don't think they're being reckless at all, and i will stand in solidarity with people that are pushing back against unreasonable and evidence-free restrictions on personal freedom, of which i would agree this is defined as.

if we all simply avoid the elderly as much as possible, we should be able to get through this without the need for draconian rules.

and, i hope that people continue to prioritize their freedom, and continue to push back.

https://toronto.citynews.ca/2020/03/30/toronto-parks-coronavirus-covid-19/

the next review is march 5th/6th.

as mentioned, i don't think i need to go for groceries immediately on the 31st. if i can get the master document for january updated first, that would be preferable. and, i can perhaps avoid the rush of panicking nitwits.

this is a review of the bummer/buildings show at ufo on feb 24, 2020.

what do you do when you plan around going to two concerts within a few days, under the expectation that the weather won't be so bad for either, and then come up against the fact that the weather is actually going to be absolutely awful for the second, at the last minute?

you made sacrifices for the first show, so you don't want to cut your losses if you can avoid it. maybe you skipped a beer. maybe you came home an hour early. whatever it was, you want to tough it out, if you can, so that the sacrifices you made were not in vain.

i woke up on this day to a blizzard warning, which is not much of a challenge for an ottawan, with the important caveat that finding a way home at the end of the night was truly essential, and the border was consequently somewhat of an unwanted and annoying barrier. canadians don't fear the cold, but we do respect it; we know when to push it, but we also are very conscious of when not to, because we've all been in those situations, where we're teetering on the brink of hypothermia; unless, of course, that we were foolish enough to die of exposure, in which case we don't have to worry about making that mistake again. the benefit of hindsight is 20/20, right? glib humour aside, i would not have wanted to wander too far from the tunnel on this night and risk being found in a snow bank and, thankfully, i didn't need to - the venue is walking distance from the tunnel, something i wish i could take advantage of more often, nowadays. detroit isn't detroit anymore, everything has been exported to the suburbs....

that said, i realized pretty quickly that the weather was about as brutal as i could tolerate in the attire i left the house in. it's not like i was really a big fan of either of these acts, i really just wanted to get out of the house for a few beers and a loud, boneheaded rock show in what i thought would be acceptable weather after being couped up since december, but the wisdom of the excursion was admittedly somewhat questionable; in hindsight, though, given that the rest of 2020 is more or less cancelled, i'm actually glad that i managed to get out. it could be a while before i get another chance.....if i even survive the boredom...

it's not that the temperature, itself, was even that bad; in truth, it actually really wasn't. the issue on this night was more about the wind, and the brutality of walking through it. standing in one spot for a while actually really wasn't that bad. it was moving through the -20 windchills and the blowing, blinding snow....

there were no pancake breakfasts on this night, though, once i succeeded in trudging my way through the snow to the venue.

i was expecting a late show, so i didn't miss anything by showing up late, thankfully.

the first band was from kansas (why is kansas in missouri, anyways?), and i'm more or less just going to post the video. while they have a more melodic component to them, they fundamentally exist in the same space as a goofy, boneheaded band like the melvins, meaning i can only really truly enjoy this from a bit of a distance, but sometimes that's good enough for the night. sometimes that's all you want, and all you need to enjoy a few hours of escape....

the second act was called buildings, and are a little more elaborate, a little more developed in their sound, and a little less boneheaded, over all. i had not heard of this act before, but, looking into it, learned that they're on their fourth record, after some lengthy down periods. they're still fundamentally a northwestern punk band, but, and i suppose this was always true of the best northwestern punk bands, they're pulling in influences from a collection of related genres - shoegaze, no wave, noise rock and a little bit of psychedelic rock, or doom metal, as well. i wouldn't quite say it sounds contemporary, but it could be mistaken for it, if that makes sense.

as mentioned, i was kind of keen to get out of the house; this was my third trip out this year, but my first at a show like this, which is also in a genre that is demonstrating increasing scarcity amidst an aging core audience. i'm not giving up on new music any time soon, especially new electronic music, but you do have to expect me to act my age sometimes, too. this is the kind of music i grew up with....

a local act called teener closed the show, as they frequently do whenever bands of this style come through town. i guess they're just kind of the go-to to fill out the bill, for right now. i've consequently seen them a couple of times. on this night, they played as a three-piece because their singer had strep-throat.

this is marble bar in detroit, which is more often a dance club; i was catching fly pan am in windsor, on this night.

i was out in plenty of time to catch the bus, and eventually got home to canada after what was a somewhat lengthy wait at the bus stop with some very cold kids coming back from an edm party at the magic stick that cost them each $50 to get in. they had just missed the previous bus, and were consequently seriously considering calling a cab, somewhat naive at the cost - i had to talk them out of it, although there was almost enough of them there to justify the $60 fee up-front, if they hadn't already bought tickets.

it actually didn't feel that bad at this point, as the wind had died down. or, so i thought, anyways.

i did try villain's a second time, but i didn't recognize the bartender. somebody outside recognized me, though. i bummed a smoke, but i didn't stay; i was starting to feel the cold, and knew i had to get in. that respect for the cold became a dominant concern, and when that happens it is sudden and it is absolute - you get home, and you don't fuck around...

i need to reiterate that, if you were to check the forecast, you wouldn't be led to believe it was a particularly cold night. further, i had a toque and gloves, in addition to a sweater, with my overcoat. i was actually dressed relatively well. but, the fact that i had at that point been outside for well over an hour in subfreezing high humidity, coupled with the wind, which had picked back up again, was the kind of thing that can shut you down for good, as the icicles start building up on your hair, and the frost begins to claim you as it's own.

as i was walking, i suddenly started to become cognizant of the reality that i was in a dangerous place, temperature wise. my face was experiencing mild frostbite. worse, i found myself fighting a sudden urge to sit down, which is very bad news, in that situation.

i went to an unusual elementary school on an army base that had a very small number of students and found myself in a split 5/6 class, twice - in grade 5 and then again in grade 6, and in fact with the same teacher both years. the instruction was often scattered, anachronistic or outright absent. as such, one thing that i found myself doing was watching a tv series called the voyage of the mimi, and doing what was essentially english-class style reading comprehension in place of actual science instruction.

in hindsight, i think some heavy criticism of the curriculum is well-warranted, but it did teach me valuable life lessons about hypothermia; you don't want to experience a sensation of warmth when you know you should be cold, and you don't want to sit down. so, i dragged myself, i pushed myself - i talked out loud, i counted, i did everything i could to make sure that i strenuously avoided any thoughts about stopping.

and, i did get home.

and, i warmed myself up in a warm blanket.

and, i ate some nachos.

and, i took a hot shower.

and, i watched the debates.

and i got some sleep...

this is a review of the man or astroman show at el club on feb 24, 2020.

this is another show that i instantly realized i had to get to, whether the weather was going to cooperate or not, and then almost missed, this time due to the need to sleep a little bit before the show.

i can't claim it was much of an exciting night outside of the show, though; there were no adventures to report, no conversations of particular interest. my attention was largely focused on trying to get to the venue before the rain started (which i failed at.), and then in getting myself home in the rain after the show. it was an early night, and i arrived late, missing both opening acts.

they did play some newer material, and i noted in a previous post that it's leaning towards a riffier, dirtier, almost grungier kind of sound that is maybe a little less campy and more evocative of the rougher edges of the american southwest. they also brought out a dot matrix printer and performed a reinterpreted piece from eeviac to give the guitarist time to change a string; it reminded me a little of autechre's gantz graf, but i doubt that meant much to the crowd. they were, overall, though, exactly what would be expected, and i think that's what most people wanted.

there was some talk about the venue in the smoking section, and i'm going to repost my initial analysis to that question. it's not that i'm unsympathetic to the concern, it's that i'm not sure how substantive it actually is.

i haven't turned the laptop back on yet. i've been dreading it. it should come up out of hibernation, but if it doesn't then i'll have to reimage.

let's hope that i can get the clean-up finished before i crash for a few hours this morning.

i am planning on hitting the grunge show tonight. the damage last night wasn't that bad, because i was able to use the balance on the debit card, and i just avoided buying beer. so, i didn't spend nearly what i said - it was $23 usd for the ticket, $10 usd at the 7/11 and $10 cdn for the bus. yes, it costs me $5 to cross the border and $5 to get back. and, yes, it adds up. it's still cheaper to live here, though.

essentially, my choice to avoid buying expensive beer at el club last night means i'm good to go for cheap beer at ufo tonight. yeah, i didn't set the fucking prices, don't look at me. if it was reasonable, i would have bought at least one..

i'm waiting until i can order last sunday before i do these february reviews all at once. but, there is still a lot of lingering concern regarding the fiasco at el club, with people worrying about crossing boycott lines. personally? i'm a free thinker, i'm not interested in being told what to do by the central committee on ethical consumption in late capitalism, and they can rule on the issue all they want, i don't give a fuck. but, i have to be honest - i didn't find the arguments i heard to be convincing.

and, you can browbeat me on it if you want, i don't really care. what i want is a convincing argument, not a demand that i follow your moral code, which i may or may not agree with.

but, i'll be equally clear that i wouldn't go to a place that i thought was actually horribly sexist or horribly racist. for a bastion of white supremacism, the bar seems to have a lot of black employees (they always did. it's detroit.) and seems to cater disproportionately to the black community. if there was a problem, they made a legitimate attempt to adjust to it.

that said, i don't go there on random nights, either, for the reason that they've largely exited my sphere of interest; this has largely not been much of an issue for me for the reason that the bar no longer caters to my tastes, anyways. so, i haven't been finding myself in this conflicted space, where i'm trying to figure out if i should go or not because i haven't had any interest in what they're booking, anyways.

the bar has a great sound system. it's not likely that random touring acts have any idea what happened, so i'm not going to tar them by association for something they don't know about, whatever the merits of it. so, if a band i like does play the space, i don't see any logical reason why i wouldn't go.

man or astroman formed in the early 90s and have been one of my favourite acts for a very long time. getting to see them was a kind of a bucket list thing. while the sound system at el club really is great, and the band does legitimately have substantive latin influences, i'll also acknowledge that it would have been a lot easier had they played the magic stick, or perhaps delux fluxx. but, for whatever reason, they didn't and i had to make a choice between missing out on a band i've been listening to for most of my life or an empty statement of solidarity with something that i'm not really convinced of the value of.

that's not a hard choice, for me.

i'm sorry if you find that upsetting, but i think you're wrong.

this is a more accurate representation of the set than the previous video i posted:

i walked right back to the tunnel after the show, took the bus back to canada and tried to stop to talk to somebody at villain's on the way home, but they were closed - as they always are on monday nights.

there were nachos, there was a shower & there was some sleep.

it's a good analogy.

deal with it.

flattening the curve, indeed.

no, listen.

if they're at 10%, it's unstoppable; you give into your arrogance, like you should have in the first place, you protect the weak and you get out of the fucking way as it falls.

the other option is to try to stop the piano with the umbrella.

but, you think you're smart.

nono, let's be rigorous about this.

i'm not claiming that it must be immunity. don't misrepresent me; i'm a clear writer, you'll lose in the end.

what i'm pointing out is that we have two equally valid hypotheses, and we can't know which is more correct until we do more targeted testing.

maybe i'm overshooting the number of cases, in which case the fascist tactics were likely effective, after all.

but, if my mortality rate is even close to correct, then there must be millions of undocumented cases, and they must be nearing a case load that should be bringing on natural immunity.

so, you could look at it either way - is this the inevitable reality? is the whole world chasing rainbows and unicorns in trying to "flatten the curve", as it caves into ignorance spread over social media? or is this really the absolute worst case scenario, and about as bad as it can get, if you miss your chance to keenly adopt fascist tactics with zeal?

we need more data.

but, i have my hunch as to which is more correct. you'll note that scientists prefer the term hypothesis to hunch, but some people might argue that's a big word, and fancy language that nobody understands.

with 2500 official deaths in the united states, the true number of cases is probably more like 2-3 million, and they're probably largely in new york. if this ends up regional like it is now, the right model might be to expect cases to rise and fall in specific hot spots, and you might end up near immunity before you even figure out what to do.

so, if there's already a million cases in new york city, you're already at 10% and you basically just need to tell old people to stay inside and let it burn out.

again: if there's 11,000 dead and the fatality rate is 0.001 then there's 11 million infected people. 

ok, you want a fatality rate of 0.002? 5.5 million. 

there's only 10 million people in the affected region.

so, i'm deeply skeptical about claims that fascist police state tactics have accomplished anything at all.

https://nationalpost.com/news/world/italy-reports-second-straight-daily-drop-in-coronavirus-deaths

the teksavvy site claims i downloaded 13 gb yesterday....

this is wrong. clearly.

it's time to take a scalpel to windows 7 and slipstream as many fixes as is possible.

soon.

https://www.nliteos.com/download.html

my understanding is that the spike of cases in montreal is, again, due to people refusing to stop their religious rituals.

these are the problems: religion and nursing homes.

it's not restaurants or bars.

https://montreal.ctvnews.ca/hit-hard-by-covid-19-montreal-s-hasidic-community-adjusting-to-public-health-orders-1.4872630

alright.

my hair is absolutely terrible from sitting inside for weeks. it's just so dry in here, and that's pretty much the worst possible thing for your hair. or your skin. it's frustrating. i'm going to look like these dying geriatrics soon, if i have to stay inside much longer. so, we're going to try this again in a few hours.
for now, let's hope i can get over this hump and finish up february.

it seems like the disgusting cop upstairs is smoking inside, again.

i hope she gets covid-19 and coughs to death.

what did i do today?

i was done eating around 13:00 and got a response from my isp, explaining that the extra bandwidth must be due to a virus, and i should change my wireless password.

i've told them at least five times that i don't have a wireless network, and have gone to great lengths to demonstrate that the data they're logging isn't entering my network. so, i sent them a series of snotty emails, and then took a nap, planning to shower a little later.

but, i was flummoxed, so i was up again in a few hours, and got a response from a manager at the isp, who offered to send me a test modem to verify that my mac address had been cloned. i told him i'd take the test modem, but i wasn't going to purchase it, at which point it became clear that he was just trying to sell me the modem. fucking capitalists.

in fact, i've been through something like this with teksavvy before, and i'm starting to wonder. are they basically just sending me bullshit stats to try to coerce me into upgrading, or to give me bullshit overage charges, like a bank charges user fees? is that what's really going on?

after napping again for a few hours (so that's two three hour naps), i got into a technical back and forth with the supervisor in the evening regarding the question of changing the mac address, threatening to hack my modem with a bus pirate and change it myself if they won't do it via server-side scripting (which they can do). and, i seem to have gotten through, finally.

we're in disagreement over the likelihood of a split in the line, if we take the situation at face value. they're saying that they don't want to send a tech because a cloned mac address could log in from any live cable. i'm pointing out that if my landlord cloned my mac address, he'd need to find a live cable, and the most obvious way to do it is to split my line. the point of testing with the test modem would be to prove the line was split; that wasn't registering with him, as he continued to insist that he could be logging in from saskatchewan, or something. ridiculous, of course, but the downside of cheap internet is that it's very hard to get a tech out, because the resellers have to rent them from the isps; teksavvy would have to order a tech from cogeco, and it's pricey. but, i'm not buying a new modem, and had to be really aggressive about the point to get it across.

we settled on a compromise solution - they will contact cogeco and ask how many ips are connected to the mac address, where  the ips are, etc. and, if they can demonstrate to themselves that there are two users on the mac address, they will react accordingly.

that's fine.

and, then i napped for a few more hours, before getting up a little after 23:00. so, i got a full day's sleep in three installments.

in the mean time, what are my stats for the day?

wan: 3.73 gb down / 1.16 gb up
lan: 2.33 gb down / 1.59 gb up
wireless: no traffic

again: this suggests some concerns on my local network. 2.33 down is believable; 1.59 up doesn't make much sense, that's 3-5x too much. but, let's get the ridiculous stats on the sever dealt with, first.

my workaround is going to mean that i'm really only going to be connecting via the chromebook for a good, long while, and i can frequently powerwash it to try to frustrate an attacker. i'm clearly getting a lot of dropped packets on the way in, indicating somebody (probably the person that cloned the mac address.) is keying in on something. as i have completely reformatted my 90s laptop, if it is the cause of that upload spike then the pathogen is on the network. i haven't connected with my windows 7 laptop in some time, now, and my pc has the nic disabled in the bios - it stays off the internet. permanently. so, i suspect that fixing this is the same thing as changing my mac address, and perhaps the same thing as changing it frequently.

the smell in here has been getting worse all day. so, now it's time to take that shower.

i've been online since the mid 90s, and i've never really experienced it without an adblocker. over the last few months, i've been forced to bareback, to go online without a condom, and i've developed the same kind of general mental block on ads that i do everywhere else in society.

i'm very much post-paradoxical, when it comes to my reaction to ads - i don't even notice they're there, broadly, unless they get to me at the worst point, in which i'm likely to never interact with the manufacturer of the product, if not the product itself, ever again. i really hate them.

but, i've noticed this walking down the street, and i do a lot of walking because i don't have a driver's license; i've never driven a car before, for environmental reasons. it sort of hit me one day, walking home - i know there's a giant billboard over there, and i know there's another one down the street, etc. i recognize the existence of the ads. i don't know what the ads actually say.

so, i'll walk by the same billboard every day for weeks, months or even years and recognize it's there, without remembering what it actually says - because i filter it out of my conscious existence. i've learned to ignore it at a subconscious level, the way i'd ignore everything else that happens around me that isn't important to me, or doesn't affect my life.

we only process about 1% of what we actually experience, or so they say. most of what we see & hear just goes in one orifice and out the other. we hear a dog barking down the street, but it doesn't register. we see a forest, but we don't isolate the trees. i'm very much that way with advertising - it's just background noise, something that i know exists, but that my subconscious brain processes identify as irrelevant to my conscious, waking self.

i've more or less built up the same kind of immunity to ads on the internet over the last little while. i know they're there, so i know i'll need to hit x five or six times when i open a web page. i don't stop to learn what they are; what i've learned is to hit the mute button before i open a news site. so, i know i'm deleting dozens of ads a day, but i don't know or care what the ads are for.

if nothing else, i'll go back to windows to bring back adblock.

and, if i've been grouchier than usual lately, that's probably a big part of it - the fact that i'm dealing with all of these fucking ads, all of a sudden.

this is absolutely hilarious.

what year is it? 1920? fuck.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-bars-nightclubs-and-cannabis-growers-dont-qualify-for-bdc-covid-1/

this is the grim reality that's playing out across the continent, as governments chase foolish strategies to collectivize the suffering, rather than target those who truly need protection.

to each according to their needs.

that's what the state should be developing policy around, right now.

if you weren't an anarchist before, the state's baffling response to this situation should turn you into one, now.

stay away from old people. please. for fuck's sake.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-covid-19-kills-nine-infects-34-staff-at-bobcaygeon-nursing-home/

just let me eat & shower, first.

i will be getting some more ram for the 90s laptop. 

but, for now, it's just too slow to be functional, even as a split gateway.

so, i'm going to need to work from the pc.

so, i've found a work around to this that should increase my productivity dramatically.

i did a last run through february, and found some more typos. yeah, i know. i'm ready to write that review, now.

and, once i get caught up, this time, i should be able to stay caught up.

the 90s laptop is locked down, but the restrictions on it are also apparent.

so, am i giving up on this horribly busted 7 install? i want a clean machine. maybe i can move it into a virtual machine, although....it's 64 bit, and that's a problem for me.

keeping in mind that i know the bios is probably infected, if i just completely format the boot partition and then mash a bunch of buttons, i should get the thing to boot from disc, if it can, right?

hrmmn.

let's finish what i'm doing first.

it's just that the next step is going to be very, very difficult to carry out on a machine with 256 mb of ram. i guess i get paid on tuesday. is the easiest thing to do to try to find some more ram? i've got the other machine running at 2, remember. but, i might be able to resolve that with a fresh install.

i never really got to reassembling it.

ugh. 

so, that means i'm inside for another day.

i think i have enough food to last another week, if it has to.

i really don't want to leave my computers unattended until i'm done what i'm doing and can easily reinstall if i have to.

so, i finally got the isp to escalate.

and, that means i'm going to give them a few more hours to figure it out before i rip the lines apart.

this could conceivably actually be a major breakthrough, if i can physically locate and dismantle a splitter in the line.

i've been complaining about crippling surveillance, now, since 2015 or so. before that, really. in hindsight, i was attacked almost as soon as i moved to windsor, i just didn't recognize it as such.

i've lost two laptops to what, in hindsight, seem like malicious attacks, already.

and i don't understand why this is happening.

"you only get 700 kb/s download speed?"

i don't download anything!

i'm 39 years old, and i look like i'm 23, but i think and act like i'm 84.

well, why else would the cops come in here when i'm gone and mess with my internet?

they installed something. the data suggests that whatever they installed is now producing an almost nonstop stream near the maximum data rate.

i don't have a fast internet connection. 35 gb is a lot relative to the infrastructure in place - nearing the maximum amount possible.

i have a 6 mbit/s maximum limit, which is about 750 kb/sec. in practice, i get something more like 700 on average.

the data from 2:00-8:00 is measured separately. let's say that i downloaded nonstop at 700 kb/s from 8:01 to 11:59.

then, i could have at most downloaded (700 kb/s)*(60 s/min)*(60min/hr)*16 hr = 40320000 kb.

converting this to gb means dividing by 1024^2.

that is roughly 38.5 gb.

as noted, the website claims i downloaded 35 gb. this would only be possible if somebody was streaming something almost constantly, all day.

....like a webcam, perhaps?

do you know what the usage stats are on the teksavvy website for the 28th?

35 gb downloaded.

who downloads 35 gb in 24 hours? i would need two or three months for that.

so, i'm going to have to find the splitter and dismantle it. that's ridiculous. what the hell are they even doing?

so, i'm on the 90s laptop, running firefox 24 on windows xp with 256 mb of ram. i wonder if that's upgradeable...

yes. i can take this up to 1 gb of ram,  if i can find the right kind. well, why not? it'll probably be around $5/stick at this point, if they don't pay me to take it.

hey - how much ram does your phone have?

i was able to transfer over my tabs from the 7 machine, although i can't pretend that i'll be able to stream anything on this, or really even do basic google searches. i'm really restricted to doing the precise task at hand, which is getting the blog cleaned up.

i can do basic internet tasks on the chromebook, for now.

and, i'm going to need to work out the last month by booting into the pc.

*sigh*.

they're going to get bored and leave me alone eventually, right?

to be clear: i am not uploading files anywhere right now. if i was uploading music or books anywhere, i would post the links. the only thing i'm "uploading" right now are posts to this blog.

there's no torrents or file-sharing apps running.

there's really no apparent explanation for this that i can see, right now, besides somebody fucking with my network, and no doubt from close quarters.

my landlord claims he's out of town, but i can hear and smell somebody upstairs. i think it's the stinky female, again, who i am fully aware is a police officer.

she's probably watching netflix and smoking drugs, because i'm so boring, and then uploading reports about how boring i am. like, fuck off then...

i had this on all day today, and you can see the dramatic difference in what is being sent to me v. what i'm requesting:

wan: 3076719 / 897149

lan: 1798325 / 1360694

wireless: 0/0

converting, 

wan: 4.4 gb down / 1.28 gb up

lan: 2.57 gb down / 1.95 gb up

wireless: no traffic

did i download 2.57 gb? did i upload 1.95 gb? that seems way too high, but by a smaller margin than i'm no doubt going to see in the official metrics. that tells me that i should be concerned about a hacker or virus, but i know that already. based on previous stats, if i downloaded 2.57, i would only expect to have uploaded around 0.5 or so. so, there is definitely some unexplained traffic on my router. i'm going to have to look at this when the rain clears up in the afternoon.

note, again, that 42% of the traffic directed to me was blocked or otherwise redirected by my router. that's indicative of some serious problems.

let me do some typing this morning and go from there. 

so, i napped this evening. i guess i needed some rest.

i'm going to try to get to work, now. for a bit, anyways. let's check my usage for the day, first.

this is an example of mutual aid - you help somebody when they need it, and they help you in return.

scheer is an idiot.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/covid-19-coronavirus-pandemic-china-medical-supplies-isolationism-1.5513203

michigan has a population of roughly 10 million, and 110 deaths last i checked.

canada has a population approaching 40 million, more comparable to california (although less.), and roughly 60 deaths.

in fact, the number of cases in california and canada are roughly the same, but the death rate in california, which is much warmer than canada this time of year, is almost twice as high.

california has been under a state of emergency with strict lockdown rules for weeks. canada only recently introduced basic travel restrictions, in a fit of stupidity, to appease the scientifically ignorant, the evan solomons. no, he's the perfect example of somebody to not listen to. 

how long will this go on for?

i have a feeling it's going to be a long time.

is social distancing working in bc?

well, i don't see anything flattening.

but, all the reports i've seen out of bc are about how everybody's ignoring it.

this seems to be some kind of "alternative fact", perhaps intended to increase confidence in the system. but, this isn't a market; the virus won't react to confidence.

the most pessimistic analysis is that they're trying to distract because they know this is going to get bad.

but, i actually think the issue in bc seems to mostly be about retirement homes. as elsewhere, lax restrictions on entering these facilities is likely to have created some serious issues, and the government should be held responsible for this. but, that doesn't translate into an issue with the general population.

but, is this working? is it proof that the sacrifices people are making are demonstrating results?

i'd challenge the premise....

what do i do?

everything's closed.

and, if i march down the street, they're just going to put me in jail.

this is the best i can do, for now: i can raise awareness and wait for critical mass.

they could theoretically overrule section 2.

but, i've been clear to point out that i oppose these policies because they aren't evidence-based. and, i consequently would argue that these restrictions would fail the oakes test.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Section_2_of_the_Canadian_Charter_of_Rights_and_Freedoms

they can't even override this with the notwithstanding clause.

it's a complete affront against the rule of law.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Section_6_of_the_Canadian_Charter_of_Rights_and_Freedoms

rights to assembly are under attack.

so, what do we do?

stand up, fight back.

rights to free movement are under attack.

so, what do we do?

stand up! fight back!

i was hoping that i could get out around the side of the house to find the splitter or transformer this morning, but then i noticed it was raining - in fact thunderstorming - out. the forecast suggested it would break up around 15:00. so, i took a nap, and planned to get out in the afternoon.

while it's broken a little, everything is no doubt very wet, and it's going to start back up again in a few hours. i'll need to wait until tomorrow, i guess.

there's a high tomorrow of 17 degrees, but there's nowhere to go, and nothing to do. 

so, let me get back to cleaning before i get to work, like i keep planning i will.

i have a lot of posts to clean up, now. 

for those of you that cannot project images from data on your own, and i know it's most of you, and i'm not trying to be smug, this is the graph you need to see for south korea:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_South_Korea#/media/File:2020_coronavirus_cases_in_South_Korea.svg

does that make what i've been saying more clear?

"we need strict rules to keep us safe from the virus"

yeah, that's what hitler and every other fascist, ever, said - just replace virus with whatever other excuse. jews. communism. etc.

don't fall for it. 

fight for your freedom. fight for your rights.

and, who enforces it?

a team of brownshirts?

do you get the conductor or driver to beat the passenger up if they argue?

it's the worst kind of panic-driven policy that you could imagine, the most blatant abrogation of a dedication to evidence, to reason and to science.

we can't be letting the government pass laws supporting this kind of mindless vigilantism without pushing back against it.

i sneeze a lot; i tell people i'm allergic to nitrogen, and nobody ever gets the joke. although, somebody once asked me before i took a hit of nitrous - hey, aren't you allergic to nitrogen.

it was a good joke before the hit.

are you going to leave it up to the bus driver to figure out if i'm suffering from allergies, have the common cold or have covid-19, based on nothing but his or her own intuition?

i couldn't imagine a policy that is less rooted in evidence or science.

what absurdity.

what nonsense.

these 1000 year floods are becoming yearly events up the st lawerence, and the ottawa, as well.

floods. diseases. authoritarian governments. it's almost like we're a third world country, or something.

https://www.stcatharinesstandard.ca/news-story/9795555-high-water-levels-on-lake-ontario-expected-to-continue-into-2020/

well, it's at least consistent. 

the science has never upheld banning international travel, and i've demonstrated this point repeatedly - people just avoid the checkpoints on their journey from a to b. this is well researched and well understood. but, the logic only ever applied at the very beginning, before the onset of community spread, which was weeks ago. if you know the virus is circulating, banning international travel is just erecting a scapegoat, as you're just as likely to spread it via domestic travel.

so, it is at least consistent.

but, it's a consistency of failure - if you do something wrong in a way that affects a small number of people, expanding it to a greater number of people is just being more wrong.

why is our government looking towards fascist states to model a solution to this? does it not expose an alarming tendency to embrace authoritarian models? is this the worst kind of pragmatism, or is it just an excuse to carry through with long held aspirations towards fascism?

if you tell me i can't take a train or a plane, then i'll take the bus instead. this is a slower means of travel and will consequently infect more people. and, if you tell me i can't take a bus, i'll hitchhike at the truck stop. are you going to put me in jail? i'll sue you for infringing on my constitutional rights, as soon as you reopen the courthouses. 

again: we need to stop trying to control the spread of this. this is basically the common cold on steroids. have we ever been able to contain the common cold? would we ever be so arrogant as to try?

this virus is a new fact of life, and something we're going to have to learn to adapt to. we need rules restricting access to the vulnerable, not rules restricting the flow of people.

and, those that refuse to adapt, including those named trudeau, will die off in time.

he was doing well at first, really. but, he caved to public opinion, to appease the scientifically illiterate, the evan solomons of the world, rather than follow the science, as harsh as it sometimes is. and, i hope that the thuggish, hamfisted approach he's adopted is his undoing, in the end. 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/coronavirus-covid19-canada-world-march28-1.5513542

i am shutting down though now...

yeah.

i'm convinced of the nature of the problem, and i'm convinced that the isp isn't taking it seriously, so i'm going to have to dismantle the lines myself.

when the sun comes up.

and before i take that overdue shower.

the isp has me logged at 14gb total usage yesterday, including 1.61 down/.19 up when i had the modem disconnected overnight.

my exact total usage according to my router was 2.35 gb downloaded & 1.06 gb uploaded, between 13:00 and 23:59.

i can't jump to the spoofed address yet, but we're another day from disproving the ddos attack as the cause of this. see, i don't know when that 14 gb is being logged. 

....although, i suppose it's hard to cram 12 gb into the 6 or 7 hours that happened before i renewed, given that bandwidth from 2:00-8:00 is counted separately.

it's pretty clear that i got cloned. but, i need to be rigorous.

you're going to see a lot of dying elderly people in michigan in the next few weeks, and they're going to blame it on everything and everybody they can find - kids at parties, restaurant goers, drug users, sinners, whatever the reverend says...

the actual reason that these people are going to die is that the governor refused to order the care facilities closed to the public. 

she's responsible. don't let her blame it on trump.

but, the president needs to be sending supplies, anyways. if he can...

stop.

were gretchen whitmer's policies effective in slowing the spread of the virus?

no, they weren't, were they.

did i tell you that they would be ineffective?

yes, i did.

so, clearly i was correct to criticize her policies as being driven by politics, rather than science, and being doomed to failure - because that's what was true, and that's what actually happened.

over here on the left, we've been pointing out for decades that, as bad as the republicans are, the democrats are often even worse. and, what's been happening over the last few years is that the democrats are getting worse and worse with each passing year, while the republicans are - very - slowly getting better.

right now, they're both terrible. 

send her the supplies - her policies have created a mess, and she needs them. then, make a big deal out of how incompetent her handling of the situation was, and how she needed to come begging to washington for help, because she couldn't figure it out on her own. i'd support that; that's reflective of reality.

but, don't make old people suffer for the mistake of the governor. that's not fair...it's not their fault....

and, there's no such thing as "central europe".

are the czechs eastern or western?

well, it's the sudetenland. obviously.

sarcasm aside, hitler was actually making sort of a valid point - while the area may have been cut out of the austro-hungarian empire, it really was a historically german region called bohemia within the second reich, named after a celtic tribe called the boii, like bavaria. while it was just over the danube, and technically outside of the general boundaries of the first empire, it was also a border region that was deeply dependent on roman hegemony, like the regions around the black sea, or the regions up and down the red sea; these people were barbarians, but only just barely, and they formed a core of the people that crossed the river, at the last end of history.

one could make the same argument about germany, of course - it was technically outside of the empire. but, it was the centre of charlemagne's reich, and the new focal point of western culture in the middle ages. the right argument is that germany became roman, and what i want to do is absorb bohemia along with them (this isn't necessary for the austrians, who were south of the danube, and in the empire the whole time), which is easy to do because they are in the second reich.

in fact, the same argument applies to the slovenians, who i maybe should have included, but didn't because i didn't want to open a can of worms. but, slovenia has a small enough population that you can throw it in there without messing around with it very much - it's 2 million people, and you're looking at another 632 cases and another 9 deaths.

the reason the czechs are considered eastern europe is that they were behind the iron curtain in czechoslavakia, but so were the east germans and nobody considers brandenburg or saxony to be part of a panslavic state. nowadays, the area is primarily slavic speaking, but it's also dominantly r1b, which throws kind of a wrench into it. but, if your argument is that it must be eastern because of the cold war, that's not taking a long enough view of history.

but, i'll acknowledge some ambiguity.

you might disagree. and that's ok.

i'm just closing down tabs.

in all fairness, the united states is not the size of any country in europe. italy, the uk and france each have around 60 million people, which is about the size of the great lakes megaregion, at it's broadest extent (including the gta). spain has about 50 million people, which is roughly equivalent to the bos-wash corridor, and germany has about 80 million which is more than any megaregion in the country, except for the entire eastern seaboard.

but, the european union as a whole has twice the population of the united states, almost. so, getting a good comparison means cutting a piece out of it.

adding up continental western europe is:

portugal -  10
spain - 47
france - 67
italy - 60
germany - 83
switzerland- 9
belgium- 11
netherlands- 17
luxembourg- 1
austria- 9
czechia- 11
==========
325

this is essentially the western empire, and excludes the british isles & scandinavia, which kind of make up their own region, as distinct from the area governed by western emperors, popes, carolingians and napoleonic pretenders. together, the brits & swedes have historically represented the opposition to roman hegemony in the west, wherever it's been localized (more frequently in paris than rome, over the last several millennia).

the population of the british isles & scandinavia, together, make up about 93 million people. there are parts of eastern europe that could historically be considered a part of scandinavia, but are better understood as satellite states of russia, in a pan-slavic kind of union, as a successor to the eastern empire. the baltic states are the ones in between.

but, what are the stats in this block of continental western europe that really is it's own thing?

(numbers from the wiki page, as of the date of this post - this is never up to date, take it as a snapshot, i'm trying to make a point)

portugal - 4268 cases / 76 deaths
spain - 56,197 / 4,145
france - 29,155 / 1,696
italy - 80,589 / 8,215
germany - 47,373 /285
switzerland- 12,311 / 207
belgium-  7,284 / 289
netherlands- 8,603 / 546
luxembourg- 1,453/ 9
austria- 6,001 / 58
czechia- 2062 / 9
=============
255296 cases & 15535 deaths.

& this is a little behind.

so, the united states has a ways to go before it catches up, still.

the 90s laptop is functioning. it's slow, and i might uninstall some plugins, but it works.

there is no wireless in this device, so i should be able to catch them, at least. there's no backdoor. and, the image is exceedingly minimal; i winlited it years ago to essentially only be able to stream. most cli tools are missing, outright. and, i can reinstall it quickly when i have to.

the windows 7 machine was not winlited; that might be a required step, moving forward.

after scripts, which includes dropping sysinternals exes in, the system32 directory is only 300+ items and 150 mb. the entire iso is 200 mb. it loads with about 40 mb of ram in system processes (and then has to load firefox...). so, this is a winlited xp that has the same resource footprint as a minimal linux distro, which is what i was going for when i built it - and what i'm going to default to if i can't get it to stay stable.

the internet is full of resource-greedy ad servers, but if i just stick to my blogspot site, i should be able to avoid them bogging the machine down. 

installing this image on my other laptop is going to be a problem because it needs sata drivers, and i can't see the install screen. i'd need to find a way to send the setup disc out through the projector out. i'm going to have to try, soon. i'm going to need to flash the bios, though, too. i want to get what i'm doing done, first.

so, i'm going to do some dishes, take a long overdue shower and then sit down and hopefully get some work done this weekend. maybe i can get out for some groceries some time mid week.

i just downloaded my router's log of my usage today, which is since 13:00 and is 1.5 gb lan traffic (downloaded) and 2.4 gb wan traffic, also downloaded. 

is it accurate? it seems like a lot of extra traffic on the wan, but 1.5 gb isn't that outrageous for me (2.4 would be a heavier day than today, i would think). that extra gb from the wan is probably all dropped packets. let's see how close it is to what they tell me.

i'm more concerned about the supposed 800 mb of upload traffic. i don't understand that. that doesn't seem right.

so, i'm going to powerwash this again and i'll be back in a few hours...

my off the cuff calculation suggests there's probably closer to 100,000 cases in michigan right now.

again: this is what you have to do, however slowly it's actually getting across.

1. suppression. 
2. mitigation.

3. adaptation.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-trump-generalmotor/trump-says-gm-efforts-never-seem-to-work-out-idUSKBN21E2J6

the president should allow the declaration, send the money and point fingers afterwards - being incompetent in her response to the crisis is not a reason for michiganders to die due to a lack of resources.

but, i've been starkly critical of what i've seen, and have to point to the facts of the matter, which are that the governor's reaction was not science-based.

the first thing she did was close bars & restaurants, while allowing hair salons, markets, places of worship, factories and, most crucially, retirement homes to stay open, as though this was being spread through extra-marital sex, or something. it was a bizarrely political reaction, designed to scapegoat a category of people; worse, it left open the most vulnerable groups to transmit the disease over the most obvious vectors of transmission - work, church and contact with seniors.

so, yes - whitmer botched this terribly, and she should be held accountable for it. but, that's not a reason to withhold supplies when she asks for them. it's not the sick peoples' fault that the governor is an idiot....

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/clinical-trials-begin-week-york-coronavirus-treatments-health/story?id=69817703

this is truly insane.

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/clinical-trials-begin-week-york-coronavirus-treatments-health/story?id=69817703

some clear thinking.

good.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/03/us-now-top-site-of-corona-infections-as-a-control-plan-emerges/

it's a time buying mechanism - it's not a vaccine and it's not a cure, and this blood is a finite resource that you can't manufacture in a lab.

but, in some way it's another argument to maximize exposure - the more immunity you develop, the more blood you can collect.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/03/hospitals-in-nyc-will-start-testing-therapy-using-plasma-of-those-infected/

so, you want some solidarity? 

i've got plenty of it.

and, i have a lot of it for those that are dealing with institutions that are trying to restrict their speech.

if you're old or have aids or something that's one thing.

but if you're a healthy young person then cowering in fear inside right now is literally equivalent to not going outside because you're afraid you're going to get hit by a car.

it's not clear thinking.

and, our governments are not following the science.

we need to have broader public debate on this topic, clearly, because, right now, people are just being scared into doing what they're told, and that's not a healthy situation for a democracy. people need better access to better information to make better choices, and they're just not getting it, right now.

it is times like this when it is especially important to push back against authority, and challenge censorship - and especially important to stand together in solidarity with those that are being shut down or otherwise oppressed by totalitarian governments or corporate institutions.

mr. torvalds seems to be more concerned about presenting tips about how to work from home (something he understands) than presenting his views on how to stop the coronavirus (something he probably doesn't really understand, even if his expertise in writing kernels is somewhat transferable).

that's actually probably the right answer, even if it's a difference of scale less salacious.

i mean, talk about a surreal twist of irony.

here we are in 2020 and are asking bill gates, of all people, his advice in how to stop the spread of a virus, and it's trending, and people are listening and taking it seriously.

baffling.

i still think he could have beat trump, though. and i'm really not confident that biden can...

also: bill gates is an expert on virology now, apparently?

judging from the efficacy of his flagship product in stopping the spread of viruses, i'd suggest you consider the source.

i mean, c'mon. what's the logic, here? that he's famous? that he's rich? it's the one thing everybody knows about windows: you get infected as soon as you connect.

my windows xp machines have been practicing social distancing for years, now. and, i'm about to give up on seven and move to linux...

i bet linus torvalds has a more interesting take on this. i wonder if he even supports the herd immunity line; no, hear me out, this makes some sense, because it's kind of like an open source approach. in the world of linux, we get security through transparency. and, it actually works. let me look this up....

the point i was trying to make is that i think that these covid-19 parties are a good idea and that i do support them under a few conditions.

(1) people need to be aware of the risks. there should be a bouncer at the door with a checklist that is sending away people that are old or have conditions.

(2) if you're certain you have it, you have an obligation to avoid vulnerable people, and you'd better take it seriously.

i don't want to sit in my room for the next two years; it is in my self-interest to support tactics that will help speed up this process.

so, i am in solidarity with the people organizing these parties, so long as they're following certain guidelines.

nowadays, we have a chicken pox vaccine, and if you live in every developed country except for one of them, you should have relatively easy access to a vaccine for your child.

chicken pox is also a disease with a low but substantial mortality rate amongst children, even if it's curve is more similar to covid-19 than it is to the flu, which is particularly hard on children.

i would argue that it's a better idea to vaccinate your children for chicken pox, in 2020.

however, we don't currently have a vaccine for covid-19, and we know the death rate amongst young & healthy people is on par with every day occurrences like crossing the street - it would be a risk, but it would be on par with the kind of risk that we effortlessly embrace on a day-to-day basis.

blocking an article like this is the kind of mob mentality stupidity that twitter is known for, and just another reason to stop using it. this is in fact a well reasoned article that brings up a number of questions that a large number of health experts have been articulating for quite a while, questions that we need to answer. shutting down the debate doesn't make it go away.

and, if people are not given forums to have these kinds of discussions, they will eventually take matters into their own hands.

again: the labels on the spectrum are what they are. but, as a libertarian leftist that values freedom and data, it is clear to me which side of the spectrum is ignoring science and giving into fear and authoritarian thuggery, and which is trying to follow the evidence in order to maximize freedom in the best way that it can.

here is the article:
https://thefederalist.com/2020/03/25/how-medical-chickenpox-parties-could-turn-the-tide-of-the-wuhan-virus/

& get off twitter already...

but, again - the longer it takes to ramp up the number of cases and get immunity into the general population, the longer this lockdown goes on for.

if you want this done with asap, you should be doing what you can to immunize yourself by exposing yourself, if you are confident you can beat it.

and, if you care about the old and the weak (and the fat and the stupid.), stay away from them while you're building your immunity.

# of deaths in the united states: ~1693

# of actual cases at estimated mortality of 0.1%:  1693000

and as a percentage of the population: 0.52%

# of deaths in south korea: ~150

# of actual cases at estimated mortality rate of 0.1%: 150000

and as a percentage of the population: 0.29%

this is perhaps expected, as south korea does have a universal system.

the growth rate in the united states is much higher right now.

but, if you follow what the science says about how south korea reacted to this, you should expect the small increases we've been seeing to drastically pick up fairly soon.

that said, because south korea is much smaller, both geographically and in terms of population, the challenges it faces are much less, and you probably shouldn't expect it to be quite comparable. the south koreans would have to be doing particularly badly to see these numbers stay roughly equal, and that's perhaps a pessimistic suggestion - no matter how poor their tactic, you would expect them to do a little better due to the geography, if nothing else.

but, you need to be careful about what the media tells you. 

this space exists to keep them honest, and i'll keep doing it.

population of south korea: 52 million (2017)

population of united states: 326 million  (2017)

factor: 6.3

# of known cases in south korea: ~10000.
% of population: 10000/52000000 = 0.00019 = .02%. 

# of known cases in the united states: ~100,000

% of population: 100000/326000000 = 0.00030674846 = .03%

"i'll get you next time, gadget"

no, you won't.

this is a good test case. really.

what's an empirical analysis of dr. claw's actual success rate in getting gadget? 0%. 

now, you could argue that if dr. claw tries infinitely many times to get gadget, he'll succeed eventually, so long as the actual probability is higher than 0. ok.

but, there's only a finite number of episodes.

so, what is the probability of dr. claw getting gadget this time, given that he failed n times before?

lesson: you need to be careful of statements made by authoritarian bodies.

again: you want as many people as possible to get this as quickly as possible in order to burn it out as fast as possible. you don't want this to drag on until we get a vaccine - that will lead to a higher death toll, in the end.

but, you do want to test aggressively so you can track it properly, and ensure it isn't mutating or recombining too quickly.

and, you do want to take special steps to ensure that particularly vulnerable groups are kept in strict isolation.

i know: i'm yelling at a lorentz equation. this already happened. i'm not a trafalmadorian, i can't see at all points in time. it doesn't matter anymore - we already made the mistake of not acting aggressively enough to protect the weak (and instead trying to stop the spread, so grandma can go grocery shopping on her own...the stupidity...), and we're going to see the consequences very soon.

but, the poor response in the united states may actually work out to it's benefit, in the end.

president gadget dodges another bullet, perhaps. gogo gadget corporate bailout....

current mortality rate in the united states: 1.53%

current mortality rate in south korea: 1.49%

current mortality rate in germany: 0.69%

they were slow to react, but the americans do appear to be testing, now - and they should see their mortality rate fall below south korea's within a few days.

it is of course the mortality rate that matters when talking about a pathogen like this, not the total number of cases.

now, what's the average cost per patient?

i agree that the two most important things to do right now are:

(1) keep young people away from old people

(2) cancel all religion, permanently

but, what's the use of banning visitors if you let the staff in and out?

again: what's defining the public response to this issue across the board, everywhere i look, is this tendency to pay lip service to science, while more or less discarding it in practice. and, the proper analysis of this at the end of the day is going to be that we overreacted in all of the wrong ways, and we underreacted in all of the wrong ways because we lacked the intellectual tools, collectively, to process what it means to follow what the science says.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-at-least-16-ontario-nursing-homes-have-covid-19-cases-yet-families/

if this mess with the virus goes on for a while, i'm going to find myself with some extra spending money, and i guess i'll have an opportunity to go down to a pawn shop (or maybe on ebay) and see if i can find a new system board as an access point.

i've basically decided that i shouldn't boot back into the laptop's hard drive until i'm able to do a fresh install. maybe i can parallel into the bios at some point, but if i can't reinstall then i can't use it.

i just want to stop wasting my time on this and get back to work. let's hope the new install on the 90s laptop is a stable enough workaround to let me do that for a bit.

so, i ended up spending yesterday morning trying to figure out how to get a new ip address, which turned out to be rather difficult. in the end, i decided to just turn the modem off again around 14:00 - and i got one when i finally reconnected after 13:00.

my calculation of my total bandwidth for the calendar date of the 26th would be around 650 mb. my isp is trying to tell me it was closer to 8 gb. 

i have a new ip address now, so we'll see if it tapers off today. again - i was physically disconnected for the first 13 hours of the day, so i should have exactly 0 bytes of usage over night, which i can measure from 2:00-8:00. that will at least help me understand when the ip dropped.

but, what did i do?

after i turned the modem off, i slept for the afternoon and was up a little bit before midnight. i've had to think some things through carefully, regarding what's actually going on here. what exactly are the police doing, here?

as mentioned: this started after i got a spike in electrical usage when i was gone. if changing my ip address doesn't help, it must be a cloned mac address or otherwise some kind of split in the line.

this is just relentless. they're insistent. and, i don't remotely understand the purpose. all they've managed to do over the last week is watch me try and figure out what they're doing to spy on me; when surveillance loses it's stealth, it becomes pointless. like, i know...

but, how do i adjust? what do i do?

they've tried hacking in over wireless, and i managed to mostly get around it. so, now they've apparently spliced my cable wire, and i haven't the slightest clue what they're actually doing - only that a large amount of data is moving from some unknown source to some unknown destination, and it's being assigned to my account, incorrectly.

i think i have to face the facts with this broken laptop that i keep trying to bandaid over - it's too infected, or too compromised, or too vulnerable. i keep booting back into it, and thinking i can just fix it enough to use it, but it just keeps getting worse; the more time i spend trying to bandaid over it, the more i realize just how bad it really is. the last time i booted it up, i found all kinds of scripts in the system directory of what i designated as my clean install that i'm certain were not there before, indicating that somebody has logged into my desktop and dropped all kinds of scripts into it. they must have the password. so, i decided that i'm not comfortable connecting it to the internet until i understand what's going on with the bandwidth.

i can powerwash the chromebook between uses, but i want to stop troubleshooting my computers and get back to finishing what i'm doing. this chromebook is intended strictly for traveling & emergency use and doesn't have the software i need to do any actual work on it. so, what windows machine do i not mind exposing to the storm? the 90s laptop...

i mentioned previously that i realized the 90s laptop appears to have been hijacked, but i decided i didn't care because i don't do anything on it of any interest. i just connect to youtube and watch educational films. does the government want to know about that? whatever. but, the more i looked at it, the more i realized it was more or less the same kinds of things. 

there's a difference, though - i can reinstall the 90s laptop with a winlited xp, and that's what i decided to do. but, i had to tweak it a little, so that's what i spent the morning doing.

the source for this is a physical disk, and it comes with a script that i initially wrote in 2008. this machine will not be difficult to hack, but i'm less concerned about stopping them from hacking in and more concerned about ensuring that i have a clean image i can push down to undo it.

i have no interest in getting into a hacking war. that's fucking boring. i want to work on my art, i don't want to be a hacker. and, i don't imagine i'd have the aptitude for it, either. for all my focus on math, i'm well aware that i'm starkly right-brained - i'm quite confident that i would lose a hacking war pretty badly. and, i could get taken down over the next few days more than once.

i don't care. i want to focus on my art, which means i need to have an easy way to reinstall from a stable source, and i think i've got that.

i'm going to get something to eat, and may sleep for a while. hopefully, i can get to writing that man or astroman review before midnight.

https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0109370/

trump'd better be careful about putting troops on the border.

we still have the corpse of john candy to fling, monty python style.

....although it's maybe more about all of those south park republicans.

we shouldn't have closed the border, and the people that made that decision are responsible for any consequences resulting from it and need to be held accountable for it. that was colossally stupid....

this will blow over, of course. but, you can't be treating trump like a rational actor, and you should have figured that out years ago.

let me turn the log on and see if i get anything other than the usual stream of dropped packets.

i mean, it would be kind of stupid to ddos me.

i don't have a server running. i'm not even torrenting. my router seems to be able to handle it. it's just increasing my bandwidth.

there's nothing to knock offline. somebody would be missing the point.

yeah.

what if i'm under a denial of service attack?

and, if i am, why?

so, i quickly found the cd-r i remembered getting with the modem, but it literally just has a ten page pdf on it. useless...

i do have a chrome book here, and i should be able to log into a terminal. i don't know how much access i'll have. i'm a windows user; i'm used to being admin, i'm not used to being told i can't do things. linux has this weird hierarchy that i've always found to be sort of oppressive. but, if i can get into there from here...

have i ever done this before?

the answer is no.

i worked very briefly for fortinet, but i was really a new hire. some manager from st. louis came in one day and fired me because she didn't like my hair; she called me a "worthless musician". well, she struck me as a corporate nazi, so we can agree to dislike each other, that's fine.

but, i didn't build up the kind of experience working there that i did working for vista. i was with vista for almost a year; i didn't get through training with fortinet.

so, i have a vague idea of how to terminal into this, but....

if i can find a good sight, i should be able to figure it out. and, hopefully, it can give me better logs....

it's times like this when having all these old machines around is useful, it really is.

the best machine for me to use to try to hack into this router is the 90s laptop. let me get that swapped over.

according to the isp, i downloaded over 13 gb of data yesterday, which is obviously wrong.

my modem came with a cd-r. let's see if i can load it on the chromebook.

i also just checked my electrical, and i got my new bill with the credit on it.

the credit was $56.86. yeah. so, my balance went from $67 to $10. i knew this would work out, eventually....one more, and it's a credit rather than a balance....

if i understand the billing process, and my average bill is around $18-20 with time of use pricing worked in, then i have the following variables in my new calculation:

usage: $20

fees: $30

fees: $1

rebate: 31.8%
oesp: $45

...and my new bill is:

($20 + $30 + 1)*(1-.318) - 45 = -$10

also, this:

https://globalnews.ca/news/6723418/ontario-hydro-rates-coronavirus-covid-19/

if that cuts usage down to more like $10-15, and the fees to close to $20, i could see rebates closer to $20-25 a month for a while.

that while give me the credit i need to use my gear for free.

this is of course not very fiscally responsible, but i think we've learned that putting a price on carbon doesn't work, and doesn't actually have a point. just convert the fucking grid, already.

ontario is actually pretty good, with almost all of the generation being generated carbon-free. we should close the remaining natural gas plants immediately. but, we have no coal; it's mostly hydro & nuclear.

so, i ate very slowly, trying to avoid the issue, and have finally logged into the teksavvy account.

it's not updated, yet.

what does my modem say, though, for the evening? well, it's interesting:

wan: 718810 packets ~ 1 gb

lan: 389351 packets ~ 0.57 gb

so, i'm receiving almost twice as many packets from the internet as i'm transmitting locally. that should be wrong....

i watched a little bit of youtube, so i can handle if today is in the middle of my normal usage range - 1-2 gb, total, from the start of the day. the lan option seems more accurate, if not somewhat higher than i'd guess. we'll see what the site says.

i should get a full log for today, and we'll compare.

what if i can explain the situation by pointing to this external wan traffic? can i do any diagnostics on this modem? can i find logs?

i've been pointing out for months that it seems like somebody is trying to control my machine remotely. is this some actual proof of it, if i can get into the modem and find it? 

if i turn the modem off, and the attacker has my mac address or ip address, will their attempts to log into my machine end up as traffic logged by the isp?

i've turned the pc off for the night. i'm going to work on this, instead.

again: i wish i didn't have to do this, but i clearly do.

i mused a little about the potential of immunity to the new virus as a consequence of exposure to the previous one - they were getting partial binding from the old antibodies, so maybe getting that pile on effect would have been easier than starting from scratch. white blood cells will do that, they'll hunt in packs, and take the pathogen down like lions swarming an elephant.

(technically, they're cooperating in neutralizing open electrons. so, if the first antibody gets 10 out of 15 electrons, maybe the second antibody snags the rest. remember - this is a geometry problem first. it's a physics problem second, and a chemistry problem third. then it's a biology problem.)

so, in the end, maybe that was a factor in the slower ramp up.

but, i need to be absolutely clear when i state this: the immediate suppression, followed by the steep onset of disease, is exactly what the literature would have predicted would happen in these east asian countries, and exactly what actual experts would have warned was imminent. if you look, you can even find a few msm articles - even if they didn't get shared on social media.

so, you shouldn't be surprised or disappointed. it was both predictable and obvious; this is actually well understood.

this is why i got off facebook. it's an algorithm for the spread of ignorance. you're not immune to that because you're an enlightened liberal, or something - your shit stinks just as bad. really.

these ideas like "flattening the curve" and "singapore beat covid-19 by embracing fascism" are just the anti-vaxxer movement of the present. and, i hope you like that comparison - i hope it sinks in, and i hope it leads you to do some independent research next time, instead of just singing with the choir.

now, we need to look at what the scientists are actually saying, which is that we need to adapt.

why were cases so low in east asia (excluding that spike in south korea) to start?

because the people that live in these countries are so fearful of their governments that they evaded care until it was too late.

that's the truth.

deal with it.

the reality is that people flouting the "east asian model" are really just spouting ignorance spread by social media, and have absolutely no idea what they're talking about.

guys.

listen.

the transmission of disease is a well studied topic. this is not a new field. and, the reality is that the experiments have already been done and that it's very well understood that this "east asian model" doesn't work, except maybe to slow statistics about the onset of the disease (perception, rather than reality), at the expense of a steeper curve in the end.

we could look at empirical studies, and i'll leave it up to you to look it up. i'm a logician, remember. i'm happy to present an argument. why doesn't this work?

because you just end up fucking scaring people. the context that these policies are generally employed within are authoritarian states, where if you end up in a cell, you're probably never getting out. if you think the cops in north america are scary, imagine getting arrested in a country like iran....

so, when you set up these checkpoints with armed guards with thermometers, people go out of their way to avoid them, thereby making it more difficult to control the spread of the virus.

the initial numbers look promising. "look", observers will say "we have found and isolated the cases and neutralized the problem". but, it only appears that way because the actual carriers are avoiding the checkpoints like the plague.

what the literature actually states will happen if you employ this model is that you'll get a steep curve in the end, once the effects of evasion have made themselves known. and, that is what we are seeing right now in countries like singapore and taiwan - as well, increasingly, in south korea.

i know that there were some media reports early that pointed to these countries as models, and that these reports were spread widely on social media. this spread of information over social media has consequently constructed a narrative about an east asian model, and the need to surrender individual civil rights for the benefit of collective security.

but, these reports were written in ways that are starkly ignorant of the literature on the topic, and everything that we know about how diseases transmit.

we want to be able to track disease, that is true. that means that we want people to come to the checkpoints, rather than avoid them. and that means we want to avoid scaring them, by doing things like publishing their credit card history on social media, or putting them under forced lockdown for days or weeks.

it's your governor or premier that threw you out of work.

is your governor or premier compensating you for it?

what do i think about the stimulus package in the united states?

i don't tend to oppose things like emergency loans, or research & development. but, it would appear that the package is indeed a little skimpy on help for workers.

it's not that i don't believe in class war - i do. there's a class war, and the capitalists are constantly fighting it, and workers always need to act as though they are directly in conflict with capital, even considering malatesta's critique of syndicalism.

but, my position on something like this is that the package is unbalanced - i thing the state should be funding everybody, right now.

the canadian government is in a minority parliament, but the opposition is a lame duck, and they are deciding to collaborate, instead. the balance is maybe a little better, but it's the same basic concern.

there is a big difference here, though - our health care system may actually end up mostly prepared. they're spending a lot of money on ventilators, for example. 

i'm more interested in getting this thing done with asap than i am in arguing for bigger and bigger welfare checks. and, i'm more likely to criticize local governments for overreacting than i am in criticizing the federal government for undercompensating.

cancelling church services is actually the kind of targeted action i'm calling for to protect the elderly and.....psychologically vulnerable. 

but, if donald trump is a religious demagogue, he'd be a suicide cult leader wouldn't he?

so, maybe you should go to mass, and drink the koolaid.

https://www.democracynow.org/2020/3/25/headlines/defying_medical_advice_trump_calls_for_return_to_normal_and_packed_churches_on_easter_sunday

no, the swedes are smart. good for them. let's hope they don't cave - and let's hope their population follows the logic.

this isn't ragnarok. you just need to follow the data...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/23/swedish-pm-warned-russian-roulette-covid-19-strategy-herd-immunity

we will need to see on the order of 20 million cases in canada before this starts to slow down. 

and, we will need to see on the order of 200 million in the united states.

why do i continue to cite these low statistics - 0.5% mortality rate of those infected - when the official numbers are higher than that? won't msnbc be angry with me?

because i'm statistically literate. i know better.

i think it's widely understood now that there's a lot of people evading medical attention, which was initially a point of contention, and is why it's impossible to actually stop. it's also why travel restrictions are more about the government finding a scapegoat than they are about actually reducing the spread of anything. a proper empirical analysis would be that we should stop trying to prevent this thing from spreading and spend more time adjusting to the new reality: this is here to stay, and at-risk people are going to have to change their lifestyles as a result of it. you can blame vacationers or foreigners all you want, but it's not a science-backed policy position. this thing is everywhere, and it's going to be everywhere forever.

so, you want to look at the cases that come in as a representative sample, and then build a model from that representative sample, not just take the data at face value. unfortunately, self-selection produces kind of a shitty bias.

i've suggested doing random sampling to get a real understanding of this...

most of the places where there are a lot of cases are dealing with overburdened health care systems, which means the weak cases aren't getting tested, which is producing these high morality rates. the highest rates are in italy, spain and iran, right now - over 7%. china has reduced this number quite a bit, but the fact that it still has a mortality rate much higher than 4% indicates that there are a lot of unaccounted for cases.

there are some countries that have seen very low mortality rates, as a consequence of extremely aggessive testing.

in germany, the mortality rate is 0.6% - still, even after almost 40,000 cases. austria, which directly borders the affected area in italy, has many fewer cases, but the same 0.6%.mortality rate. norway is at 0.5%, after 3000 cases, as are the australians after 2400. after less cases, but still more than 1000, the czechs are at 0.4%, luxembourg is at 0.6%, ireland is at 0.5%, chile is at 0.3% and pakistan is at 0.8%.

and the jews, who have border security that works, are outsmarting everybody at 0.2%, after 2369 cases.

these are the best health care systems in the world, clearly. but they're also the countries doing something right. but, careful - they might also be doing things that are wrong or ineffective. causality is not the same thing as correlation.

nobody else has 1000 cases yet, which seems arbitrary, but you could work this out using the central limit theorem - there is an n that is enough. i'm guesstimating 1000. other countries are nearing an n>1000, and many of them have mortality rates <0.5%, too.

but, i'm chery-picking, surely! no...

if x (i can't use fancy greek letters here. sorry.) is the true mortality rate, an example of the actual term statistic, then you'd have to estimate it being less than anything observed due to the nature of the study. if you do two hundred real-world hospital studies, x would have to be some kind of limit of the minimal values, because even in the best real-world hospital studies you're going to miss patients. if you did studies in places like dorm rooms or fitness centres, you'd overshoot the other way. so, i'm pointing out a sampling bias, here, i'm not cherry-picking the best results. if you're lucky, you'll get pretty close - but it's essentially impossible to overshoot it.

so, that would mean that the actual mortality rate is less than the 0.2% in israel, unless you think that the jews are the master race, or something. no, really, that's your argument.

so, generating a bound for x, x<0.002, means that these other countries that have mortality rates higher than that, and especially higher than 0.01, are missing a very larger number of cases, and this is likely to get worse as the cases spread. they don't know know where they are....

there's an upside to that, though.

if there are 7500 deaths in italy, and the true mortality rate is 0.1%, that would indicate that there are over 7.5 million cases in italy, right now - not the 75,000 they know about. most of these will be in the lombardy area.

the population of lombardy is 10 million people.

they may be nearing herd immunity, and that's when this slows down and stops - not in spite of their failure at containment, but because of it. 

it would also indicate that there's only 35,000 cases in canada, and we have a very long way to go before this burns itself out.