nono, let's be rigorous about this.

i'm not claiming that it must be immunity. don't misrepresent me; i'm a clear writer, you'll lose in the end.

what i'm pointing out is that we have two equally valid hypotheses, and we can't know which is more correct until we do more targeted testing.

maybe i'm overshooting the number of cases, in which case the fascist tactics were likely effective, after all.

but, if my mortality rate is even close to correct, then there must be millions of undocumented cases, and they must be nearing a case load that should be bringing on natural immunity.

so, you could look at it either way - is this the inevitable reality? is the whole world chasing rainbows and unicorns in trying to "flatten the curve", as it caves into ignorance spread over social media? or is this really the absolute worst case scenario, and about as bad as it can get, if you miss your chance to keenly adopt fascist tactics with zeal?

we need more data.

but, i have my hunch as to which is more correct. you'll note that scientists prefer the term hypothesis to hunch, but some people might argue that's a big word, and fancy language that nobody understands.

with 2500 official deaths in the united states, the true number of cases is probably more like 2-3 million, and they're probably largely in new york. if this ends up regional like it is now, the right model might be to expect cases to rise and fall in specific hot spots, and you might end up near immunity before you even figure out what to do.

so, if there's already a million cases in new york city, you're already at 10% and you basically just need to tell old people to stay inside and let it burn out.