see, this is what i was yelling for people to do.
a total society-wide lockdown is ridiculous, utopian, unworkable. but, a couple of dozen people in a home is feasible, and exactly the most vulnerable population.
if all of the care homes and facilities had taken this measure, we would have been able to avoid a broader social lockdown, which doesn't appear to have been successful, and actually succeeded at protecting the people that actually required it.
this facility should be studied as a model and our future health responses should be centered around the lessons learned.
but, i suspect that those lessons are not particularly complex.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/france-vilanova-nursing-home-1.5554296
Monday, May 4, 2020
yeah, that's because he's an idiot.
https://globalnews.ca/news/6901114/trudeau-quebec-coronavirus-schools/
https://globalnews.ca/news/6901114/trudeau-quebec-coronavirus-schools/
so, these are the newest antibody numbers from new york, on saturday:
Bronx: 27.6%
Brooklyn: 19.2%
Manhattan: 17.3%
Queens: 18.4%
Staten Island: 19.2%
still no error bars, but the sample sizes in specific boroughs are much lower, so you could potentially add an extra 10% to any of those numbers (or remove as much).
those numbers are still lower than i expected, but it's high.
and, the decrease in transmission is no doubt resulting from increased presence of antibodies, at least partially.
note now that it seems as though an american firm is pushing an antibody test, so expect the msm to turn on a dime with this. they're terrible. consistently. but, we'll see if the yankee tests are as good as the other ones, now. i would hardly expect substantively different results, but we'll see.
the caveat from the start was always mutations and different strains. if there are multiple viruses going around rather than just one, which appears to be the case, then you would expect the tests to miss the infections that they weren't created for. further, you would expect a possibility of catching the various different stains, because they are no longer the same virus.
the mutation rate of this thing appears to be continually being revised upwards, meaning that these numbers might only be a half or a third of the story.
how do we find that out?
the answer is that we do more antibody testing.
Bronx: 27.6%
Brooklyn: 19.2%
Manhattan: 17.3%
Queens: 18.4%
Staten Island: 19.2%
still no error bars, but the sample sizes in specific boroughs are much lower, so you could potentially add an extra 10% to any of those numbers (or remove as much).
those numbers are still lower than i expected, but it's high.
and, the decrease in transmission is no doubt resulting from increased presence of antibodies, at least partially.
note now that it seems as though an american firm is pushing an antibody test, so expect the msm to turn on a dime with this. they're terrible. consistently. but, we'll see if the yankee tests are as good as the other ones, now. i would hardly expect substantively different results, but we'll see.
the caveat from the start was always mutations and different strains. if there are multiple viruses going around rather than just one, which appears to be the case, then you would expect the tests to miss the infections that they weren't created for. further, you would expect a possibility of catching the various different stains, because they are no longer the same virus.
the mutation rate of this thing appears to be continually being revised upwards, meaning that these numbers might only be a half or a third of the story.
how do we find that out?
the answer is that we do more antibody testing.
ok.
it looks like the detroit area, which was earlier than other places, has finally come close to peaking. the numbers in detroit are not as clean as new york, apparently because the reporting is not as centralized, as opposed to in ontario where they're just being flat out fucked with. but, it looks like it peaked a few days ago, meaning that the city is probably dealing with high levels of immunity at this point.
due to the fragmented data, it's hard to tell if it went up and down or flattened out, but the former looks more real.
that said, it looks like it's spreading into places like flint, lansing and ann arbor, now. the same thing happened in new york, with a delayed outbreak in buffalo.
here in windsor, the initial infections seem to have actually been a corollary of the detroit outbreak, rather than it's own. as we are much smaller, and relatively isolated, we should not expect a serious outbreak until the tail end of this, which probably won't be a "second wave" but just the result of the first one playing out. we're more like a city like thunder bay - we're likely to be last, not first.
and, let's hope it doesn't get too bad in toronto and los angeles this week, although it doesn't look like a peak in either city is likely for another two-three weeks.
it looks like the detroit area, which was earlier than other places, has finally come close to peaking. the numbers in detroit are not as clean as new york, apparently because the reporting is not as centralized, as opposed to in ontario where they're just being flat out fucked with. but, it looks like it peaked a few days ago, meaning that the city is probably dealing with high levels of immunity at this point.
due to the fragmented data, it's hard to tell if it went up and down or flattened out, but the former looks more real.
that said, it looks like it's spreading into places like flint, lansing and ann arbor, now. the same thing happened in new york, with a delayed outbreak in buffalo.
here in windsor, the initial infections seem to have actually been a corollary of the detroit outbreak, rather than it's own. as we are much smaller, and relatively isolated, we should not expect a serious outbreak until the tail end of this, which probably won't be a "second wave" but just the result of the first one playing out. we're more like a city like thunder bay - we're likely to be last, not first.
and, let's hope it doesn't get too bad in toronto and los angeles this week, although it doesn't look like a peak in either city is likely for another two-three weeks.
and, just on the question of the "reintroduction" of the virus in china.
they claim it was gone for what? three days?
they're doing exactly the same thing we're doing, which is blame the problem on foreigners.
given that they are never transparent about anything, it's impossible to know whether the virus was eradicated and brought back or if there was community spread the whole time, but you'll note the extreme measures they took, and that they don't appear to have been effective, in the long run - as they would not have been expected to be.
the chinese response has been to go so far as to ridicule the concept of human rights, which is deeply disturbing. i've been calling them fascists; they're not helping themselves, and they don't seem to grasp it.
but, the proper lesson here is that the east asian model has, in fact, failed.
except in south korea. that's still weird...
they claim it was gone for what? three days?
they're doing exactly the same thing we're doing, which is blame the problem on foreigners.
given that they are never transparent about anything, it's impossible to know whether the virus was eradicated and brought back or if there was community spread the whole time, but you'll note the extreme measures they took, and that they don't appear to have been effective, in the long run - as they would not have been expected to be.
the chinese response has been to go so far as to ridicule the concept of human rights, which is deeply disturbing. i've been calling them fascists; they're not helping themselves, and they don't seem to grasp it.
but, the proper lesson here is that the east asian model has, in fact, failed.
except in south korea. that's still weird...
the virus showed up in china and spread quickly to iran, before transiting to italy, where it seems to have mutated.
china. iran. right.
well....?
recognize that this isn't mutually exclusive, either. do the chinese even have the capability to bioengineer something like this? i'd doubt it, frankly. but, the strain that showed up in italy could very well have been retaliatory.
i don't know exactly how you'd prove a virus was or was not engineered in a lab without explicit evidence - scientists admitting it. if we start seeing very weird behaviour, it may tip something off, but it isn't proof.
stated in sciencey terms, the hypothesis isn't falsifiable. so, it's not actually science.
but, i'd be far more likely to blame it on the pentagon than the chinese....
china. iran. right.
well....?
recognize that this isn't mutually exclusive, either. do the chinese even have the capability to bioengineer something like this? i'd doubt it, frankly. but, the strain that showed up in italy could very well have been retaliatory.
i don't know exactly how you'd prove a virus was or was not engineered in a lab without explicit evidence - scientists admitting it. if we start seeing very weird behaviour, it may tip something off, but it isn't proof.
stated in sciencey terms, the hypothesis isn't falsifiable. so, it's not actually science.
but, i'd be far more likely to blame it on the pentagon than the chinese....
so, a few weeks ago they were insisting they could prove it wasn't man-made, which i insisted was absurd. but, the only real evidence that i could find that it was man-made was the insistence that it wasn't.
now, the secretary of state is insisting it was made in a lab after all - and that the chinese did it.
again: these projections are very strongly suggestive of an american origin. we've seen this over and over again, most recently when the cia rigged the 2016 election and blamed it on the russians.
so, did the americans create this virus and accidentally set it loose? did it blow back spectacularly badly?
https://nationalpost.com/news/world/pompeo-says-significant-evidence-new-coronavirus-emerged-from-chinese-lab-2
now, the secretary of state is insisting it was made in a lab after all - and that the chinese did it.
again: these projections are very strongly suggestive of an american origin. we've seen this over and over again, most recently when the cia rigged the 2016 election and blamed it on the russians.
so, did the americans create this virus and accidentally set it loose? did it blow back spectacularly badly?
https://nationalpost.com/news/world/pompeo-says-significant-evidence-new-coronavirus-emerged-from-chinese-lab-2
this has been a recurrent problem for years now, and it's a normal side effect of the worst type of migraines. the technical term is called "migraine with aura", because you get tracers, like you're on psychedelics. but, i could even deal with that if it wasn't for the blurred vision and, worse, the aphasia. it's the aphasia that is frightening and frustrating...
i have very, very low cholesterol. and, while my migraines tend to be hemiplegic, i don't think i'm having a stroke. it's just what is perhaps the absolute worst type of migraine.
what was it like trying to type this morning? i could think relatively well, but i had a very hard time typing the actual words, and if you look at the writing you can see that the words are replaced with other words. compare the original version with the correct one to see some of the concepts that got distorted and how they got distorted.
i'm not going to pretend that i fully understand this, but it is absolutely bizarre, and it hits you like a vicious attack that you just have to shake off.
i was considering doing some things today, but i think i may have to recover, instead. this headache was not the worst i've had (i could at least talk. i've had some where i try to say specific words and say unrelated things. so, i'll try to say 'dog' and instead say 'hyena', or something - and i can't get the right idea out), but it was pretty vicious nonetheless and it might last two or three days.
i've talked to some doctors, and they tell me they're just really bad headaches. there's no answer...
https://migraine.com/blog/migraine-symptoms-transient-aphasia/
i have very, very low cholesterol. and, while my migraines tend to be hemiplegic, i don't think i'm having a stroke. it's just what is perhaps the absolute worst type of migraine.
what was it like trying to type this morning? i could think relatively well, but i had a very hard time typing the actual words, and if you look at the writing you can see that the words are replaced with other words. compare the original version with the correct one to see some of the concepts that got distorted and how they got distorted.
i'm not going to pretend that i fully understand this, but it is absolutely bizarre, and it hits you like a vicious attack that you just have to shake off.
i was considering doing some things today, but i think i may have to recover, instead. this headache was not the worst i've had (i could at least talk. i've had some where i try to say specific words and say unrelated things. so, i'll try to say 'dog' and instead say 'hyena', or something - and i can't get the right idea out), but it was pretty vicious nonetheless and it might last two or three days.
i've talked to some doctors, and they tell me they're just really bad headaches. there's no answer...
https://migraine.com/blog/migraine-symptoms-transient-aphasia/
ok, can i think straight yet?
====
ok.
so, i ended up with a brutal headache in here a little before 3:00, and it could be a while before i'm finished with it. i may have a hard time shaking it off for a little while. it's the dry air in here, and if i'm stuck inside all summer, i could end up fighting with it for months.
the guy upstairs thinks he gets migraines because of the humidity, which is maybe the most scientifically illiterate thing i've ever heard. but, i've noticed this before - as soon as he gets in, he turns the dehumidifer on, which gives me a headache, too. so, we both end up with headaches because he won't turn the fucking dehumidifier off.
like, i can't even think. it's like i have a vice squeezing my brain; it's a tension headache, and just vicious. i can't see, i can barely talk, it's just brutal. what he should be doing is the opposite - he should be turning the dry air off, and turning on the humidifier instead. we need more humidity, not less! i can't stand the dry air, it gives me a headache and just makes me horribly sick.
ok.
i can't type....clearly.....
i'll be back in a bit.
the problem is the lack of humidity.
but, i'm done the master document.
===============
so, i cleaned that segment up, now, and i'm still hurting, but i seem to be much better.
i feel awful, but i'm not sick from the virus - it's the dry air. i haven't been outside at all since april 16th.
is it the vitamin d? no. it's the dry air...
my immediate concern is that i need to eat this morning.
but, i am done the master document. really. it's roughly 250 pages, and mostly music stuff....
just let me shake this off a bit more.
====
ok.
so, i ended up with a brutal headache in here a little before 3:00, and it could be a while before i'm finished with it. i may have a hard time shaking it off for a little while. it's the dry air in here, and if i'm stuck inside all summer, i could end up fighting with it for months.
the guy upstairs thinks he gets migraines because of the humidity, which is maybe the most scientifically illiterate thing i've ever heard. but, i've noticed this before - as soon as he gets in, he turns the dehumidifer on, which gives me a headache, too. so, we both end up with headaches because he won't turn the fucking dehumidifier off.
like, i can't even think. it's like i have a vice squeezing my brain; it's a tension headache, and just vicious. i can't see, i can barely talk, it's just brutal. what he should be doing is the opposite - he should be turning the dry air off, and turning on the humidifier instead. we need more humidity, not less! i can't stand the dry air, it gives me a headache and just makes me horribly sick.
ok.
i can't type....clearly.....
i'll be back in a bit.
the problem is the lack of humidity.
but, i'm done the master document.
===============
so, i cleaned that segment up, now, and i'm still hurting, but i seem to be much better.
i feel awful, but i'm not sick from the virus - it's the dry air. i haven't been outside at all since april 16th.
is it the vitamin d? no. it's the dry air...
my immediate concern is that i need to eat this morning.
but, i am done the master document. really. it's roughly 250 pages, and mostly music stuff....
just let me shake this off a bit more.
ok.
so, i ended up with a brutal headache end here a little before 3:00, and i could be a while before i finish with it. i may have a hard time shaking it off for a little while. up stairs the try air end here, and i if i end up here stuck in here all find, here it's care until an empty little winter.
the guy upstairs thinks he gets migraines because of the humidity, which is maybe the most scientifically illiterate thing i've heard. but, i've notice this before - as soon as he gets up, he turn the dehumidifer end, on which gives me a headache, too. so, we both end up with headaches because he wouldn't dd the fucking dehumidifier off.
like, i couldn't even think he's sorry here. what he should be doing is the opposite - he should be turning the dry air off, and doing on the humidifier instead. i can't stand the dry air, it gives me a headache and up makes up send.
ok.
i end can't type....clearly.....
i'll be back in a bit.
the probably is the humidity.
but, i'm done the master document.
i got distracted this morning by some censorship on facebook.
it was back in late february or early march that facebook decided to put a "cover" over this album art, which i found to be an unacceptable restriction of speech:
their argument was that they'd decided this had "graphic or violent content" and people should decide whether they wanted to look at it.
but, how can people make a choice to decide if they want to see something if they haven't seen it? it's incoherent, circular logic. you have to see something before you decide you don't like it. so, this decision is not being made by individual people, but rather by facebook.
the value of this picture, as art, is that it is disturbing.
what is it even of? this crocodillian ate some human, and is being cut open to identify the body. that's a fact of life, as human predation is a real concern in much of the world where humans co-exist with this species. facebook's decision to cover up the picture is equivalent to a denial of reality, which they're then using to censor the art - which is the feeling of discomfort that you get from looking at this, as a reminder that your humanity is rooted in the fact that you are an animal.
do i think you have the right to avoid that? no...
you might disagree with it, but you cannot be allowed to tell me to cover up.
so, i got into a posting war with facebook over it, and they seem to have conceded the point, but only on my main profile. as i went through the music profile, i realized i'd have to repost several posts that made use of the picture, which meant i'd have to scroll through hundreds of posts....
i then forced myself to sleep this afternoon, which took a few tries - which is a good sign. when i am healthy, i have difficulty sleeping. i thrive on insomnia; bring it on.
i need to finish up what i was doing this morning, before i put the completed master document aside to do dishes and get something to eat.
it was back in late february or early march that facebook decided to put a "cover" over this album art, which i found to be an unacceptable restriction of speech:
their argument was that they'd decided this had "graphic or violent content" and people should decide whether they wanted to look at it.
but, how can people make a choice to decide if they want to see something if they haven't seen it? it's incoherent, circular logic. you have to see something before you decide you don't like it. so, this decision is not being made by individual people, but rather by facebook.
the value of this picture, as art, is that it is disturbing.
what is it even of? this crocodillian ate some human, and is being cut open to identify the body. that's a fact of life, as human predation is a real concern in much of the world where humans co-exist with this species. facebook's decision to cover up the picture is equivalent to a denial of reality, which they're then using to censor the art - which is the feeling of discomfort that you get from looking at this, as a reminder that your humanity is rooted in the fact that you are an animal.
do i think you have the right to avoid that? no...
you might disagree with it, but you cannot be allowed to tell me to cover up.
so, i got into a posting war with facebook over it, and they seem to have conceded the point, but only on my main profile. as i went through the music profile, i realized i'd have to repost several posts that made use of the picture, which meant i'd have to scroll through hundreds of posts....
i then forced myself to sleep this afternoon, which took a few tries - which is a good sign. when i am healthy, i have difficulty sleeping. i thrive on insomnia; bring it on.
i need to finish up what i was doing this morning, before i put the completed master document aside to do dishes and get something to eat.
wake me up when capitalism is done and we've found a way to indefinitely prolong mortality via shifting hosts.
when this shell is no longer functional, just download me to disk, grow me a new one and upload me into it.
existence is futile, until then.
https://biotron.wisc.edu/2018/10/26/human-powers-of-hibernation-may-be-dormant-in-genetic-code/
when this shell is no longer functional, just download me to disk, grow me a new one and upload me into it.
existence is futile, until then.
https://biotron.wisc.edu/2018/10/26/human-powers-of-hibernation-may-be-dormant-in-genetic-code/
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