Saturday, April 11, 2020

so, i've built my concert list for april - a little late, but so be it. i'm going to need to sort through that this evening, hopefully enough to mostly catch up.

i've logged into my beyond-repair install one more time, to take a note of installed software and put aside any other user configuration files, as i'm going to be formatting and reinstalling to the laptop's drive, which i'm going to boot into from the pc. so, that's how we'll finish this up.

i need to recalibrate where i am in the vlogging, which could take a night or two.

and, i need to make some calls on monday and get my head around what's actually happening with these court cases.

i'm going to have to then stop for a few days to build a new windows 7 image, which i may also use as the base image for my new computer, which i'm finally nearing a build on. i've had these parts sitting for months...

hopefully, easy access to a fresh image will help in the struggle against whatever force is messing with me.

but, i'm also going to actually physically clean in here. it seems like the effects of the sewer gas have finally mostly faded away, so i'm ready to clean up each of the rooms in here one by one, starting with the room i sleep and type in.

so, there's a list of things to do. step one is sorting through the list of concerts that were cancelled in april, while reimaging my windows 7 laptop, via my now aging 32-bit pc.
so, it seems like i'm caught up, now. thankfully.

i should stay caught up; no more of that.

what's next?

i have some local filing to do, before finally moving to the master document for january.
"did she say that medical care for the coronavirus is creating an observer effect on the measurement of the dead?"

it is the case that a lot of people that get hooked up to these systems are not getting off of them alive.
somebody do a telephone poll. one question, super quick; good agents can get 200 completions an hour for something like this, when everybody is at home bored.

q: do you think you have contracted the coronavirus that causes covid-19?
a: yes or no

get thousands of responses and work it out through brute sampling.
are they peaking or plateauing in new york? well, it depends on the metric.

new cases and new hospitalizations both peaked and dropped quickly. deaths are lagging, and one wonders if it's because the system is able to prolong life in a way that skews the data. if you want some human impact, even if it's just a crude observer effect, then there's something that's potentially real - while a sustained plateau in the death rate would be the expected and intended outcome of social distancing measures in a serious pandemic, it may be that a short plateau, or unclear peak, is the expected result of human health care systems interfering with a natural peak and decline in a relatively weak virus, such as this one.

social distancing isn't supposed to be about a short plateau, it's supposed to be about maintaining a long and rigid plateau, in an attempt to stretch out resources. remember? that was the point - that healthcare systems would be overwhelmed if forced to deal with everything at once, and would be better able to handle the demand if it could be slowed down. but, that implies a sustained level of moderately high demand, for a long period.

given that the other metrics peaked and dropped quickly, it would not appear to be likely that mortality is headed for a sustained plateau in new york, but will rather see an extended peak, followed by a sharp decline.

i could be wrong. we'll see. but, it looks to me like we saw this thing ramp up very quickly to protective immunity in new york and in the process burned itself out, and that what you're going to find when you do testing is that a majority of people already have antibodies.
i'm done with march, now. i'm getting there....soon.....