dsdfghghfsdflgkfgkja: 07/26/20

Sunday, July 26, 2020

the second package to update is the august music journal at bandcamp, and the travel blog just got much bigger, jumping from 2 to 14 posts. while i have minimal documentation of my actual truck ride to windsor, this should help fill in the time gap a little bit better. also added are some posts documenting some trips i made around town after i moved in.

as this update is strictly to the travel blog, it will not be documented in the notes.

https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/08-2013-music-journal

the following four posts were made from ottawa, before i left, and added to the front of the blog:

4) $50 gift certificate pt 1
https://dsdfghghfsdflgkfgkja.blogspot.com/2013/08/so-i-have-still-have-that-50-gift.html

5) disc scavenging
https://dsdfghghfsdflgkfgkja.blogspot.com/2013/08/re-cds.html

6) $50 gift certificate pt 2
https://dsdfghghfsdflgkfgkja.blogspot.com/2013/08/i-wasnt-expecting-them-to-give-me-cash.html

7) recovery
https://dsdfghghfsdflgkfgkja.blogspot.com/2013/08/thankfully-i-was-at-least-able-to.html

the following eight posts were made from windsor, and document some trips made out of the house after moving in:

8) documents to print:
https://musicofjessicamurray.blogspot.com/2013/08/documents-to-print.html

9) do i have internet now?
https://musicofjessicamurray.blogspot.com/2013/08/mom-i-guess-you-have-your-internet-now.html

10) new dresser sequence
https://musicofjessicamurray.blogspot.com/2013_08_20_archive.html

11) wood improperly cut:
https://musicofjessicamurray.blogspot.com/2013/08/i-should-probably-just-laugh.html

12) make-up self
https://dsdfghghfsdflgkfgkja.blogspot.com/2013/08/building-myself-make-up-shelf-out-of.html

13) found tv
https://musicofjessicamurray.blogspot.com/2013/08/so-i-found-on-old-tv-on-curb-it-works.html

14) fitted shelf
https://musicofjessicamurray.blogspot.com/2013/08/the-fitted-shelf-eventually.html

15) found shoe rack
https://musicofjessicamurray.blogspot.com/2013/08/shoe-shelf-found-on-curb.html

so, why aren't i all in on climate change, then?

if only it were that easy, right?

when i talk about my genome being adapted to some kind of warm, humid climate, i want to be clear what stage of evolution i'm talking about, here.

clearly, there has been large amounts of gene flow through the western part of the old world, from the tip of norway to the reaches of the sahara, and from the distant island of ireland to the mountains overlooking the indian subcontinent. there has also been substantive gene flow into this region from the blackest reaches of africa and india, as well as the furthest reaches of the east. all of that substantive gene flow has prevented any sort of substantive subgrouping of broadly caucasian types from developing. if you take random people from britain, from libya, from italy, from turkey and from iran and mix them all up in non-descript clothing, or just observe them naked, you're consequently not going to find it as easy to identify them as you'd imagine.

i'm not suggesting that my warmer climate genetic history is suggestive of some kind of speciation event or something.

rather, i'm talking about percentages of alleles in the population that control for adaptations to climate, which i would imagine are not very likely to change over time in the presence of gene flow because the people that stay and thrive in whatever climate are those best able to adapt to it.

so, sure - people come and go. for that reason, people like me with a clear predisposition towards warmer weather get born in cooler climates, and those with a clear predisposition towards cooler weather get born in warmer climates. so, in any population, you're going to have a level of variation. but, what i'm getting at is that it's going to be those with the right match that actually thrive and reproduce, and that for that reason you would expect populations in sweden to be adapted to the weather differently than populations in sicily, when measured in aggregate. that is, alleles for the right kind of climate would predominate in either area.

i would thrive much better in a more tropical climate, and in a way where i'm able to enjoy the heat and humidity, i'm sure of it.

and, yes, i think that coverage surrounding the effectiveness of antibodies has, to say the least, been overblown.

it's the memory of the virus that's more important than the antibodies themselves. that said, i'll acknowledge that the testing seems to indicate that there's a higher percentage of people clearing the virus from their system without an immune response than was previously imagined.

so, let's logically beak down what might happen if you get the virus.

1) you might clear the virus without developing an immune response, which would essentially mean that your immune system just ate it without thinking about it twice. it may have just thought it was a variant of the common cold, and decided it wasn't worth amounting an immune response to (a very interesting conclusion, if true.). if this happens, then you are not going to be immune to the virus in the future. in theory, you could catch the disease repeatedly without getting sick, and act as a superspreader of it.

2) otherwise, you will get sick. if you get sick, that means that your body is mounting an immune response, and you should expect protective antibodies, if you beat it.

i) if you beat it, and your body successfully produces antibodies that clear it, it remembers how to produce those antibodies, again. forever. so, while antibody levels may fade over time (your body will prioritize that accordingly), you don't forget how to create the antibodies again. it's sort of a tempest in a teapot. but, note that your body may be dropping production of antibodies for this class of virus (the common cold.) because it knows that the virus mutates quickly.

ii) if you don't beat it, it's because you were unable to crack the virus' code and develop antibodies fast enough to clear it. and, you are now dead. sucks.

of course, if the virus has mutated by the next you come into contact with it then all bets are off.

so, the first package to update was the july music journal at bandcamp. the addition is minimal - four additions to the travel blog - and will not be documented in the notes.

https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/07-2013-music-journal-2-2

the following four posts were added to the very front of the travel blog:

1) legit drunk last night
https://musicofjessicamurray.blogspot.com/2013/07/consequences.html

2) moving thoughts:
https://musicofjessicamurray.blogspot.com/2013/07/so-im-in-process-of-blowing-my-life-up.html
https://musicofjessicamurray.blogspot.com/2013/07/i-think-my-perspective-is-slightly.html

3) the plan
https://musicofjessicamurray.blogspot.com/2013/07/the-plan.html

i want to be clear: i wouldn't propose ramping up to 20%. you could blow up the system, just by doing it, and the thing could run out of control, for real.

i might at most suggest encouraging the spread amongst university students, which is about what's going to happen right now, anyways. 'cause you can cancel frosh, but you can't really cancel frosh.

so, it's going to make the most sense to post the errata on a month-by-month basis, and update each file, as it's updated.

soon.

i have to finish reinstalling the other drive first, because that's where my editing software is.

expect about 20 posts added to the travel blog, mostly before 11/2013. also expect about 20 posts added to dtk, all after 08/2013.

this was frustrating and slow and tedious but i'm a perfectionist, and there wasn't really any way around it - i had to let the blogs all develop a little before i was able to go back and ensure a concept of consistency within each of them. i want to be to the next thing, but that was necessary.

the numbers in the united states generally dip dramatically on the weekends. the fact that saturday's numbers did not dip dramatically from friday's is a red flag that next week will be brutal.

i wish i understood why some posts are broadcasting and others aren't. it's quite strange.

how much longer do we have to go with this?

with forty million confirmed cases globally, the actual number is something more like 600 million, as a lower bound - that's 7.5%. the seroprevalence to crude case count ratio has mostly been measured in advanced countries, and seems to be somewhat less than ten, but the spread is global and you would expect that ratio to be much higher in most of the world, so a factor of 15 is no doubt an underestimate.

so, we're probably pushing close to a 10% infection rate, with the vast majority of those people showing enough symptoms that they can expect to develop an immune response.

now, this is going to be very localized, with some regions having high levels of immunity and some regions having low levels of immunity. you should be able to loosely measure this by how hard the region was hit.

a reasonable estimate for the actual case count in the united states right now based on empirical data is roughly 40 million, which is 12% of the population. it seems that the magic number to drastically slow the spread is not 70% as previously thought but rather 20%. while regional variations in the united states will dominate, it would seem to be halfway there, overall.

we could of course stop this with a vaccine, if we can get one first. but, if we're halfway there, and the growth rate is an increasing function, that would suggest we have less than six months to get there before it burns itself out. three, probably. it's going to peak in september...

our governments have all spent a lot of money on these vaccines, but they may find themselves arriving to a muted threat.

that's not to say that this thing won't be dangerous for years to come, or that it won't continue to spread in much the same way that it does now, albeit at a reduced rate. it will still be out there, and the vulnerable will remain at risk. when the vaccines get here, the elderly and at risk should take them immediately.

it's just that 20% immunity seems to be enough to stop the actual pandemic.

i think people maybe have this binary view of herd immunity, but this isn't quantum physics, we can have continuity, here. herd immunity is an inflection point, but the reduction in spread will increase proportionally with the number of people infected. so, 70% is better than 50% is better than 20%. but, the magic number for the health system seems to be a lot lower than previously thought, making the concept a lot more attainable than previously imagined.

the same rough calculation produces less than 5% immunity in canada, as a whole, indicating that we have much further to go. but, we will still probably beat the vaccine to substantive immunity, in the end.