the numbers in milwaukee do not appear to be as suspicious as the numbers in wayne or cook county, or in downtown boston. i think people should have expected it to be close, and it is. further, whatever stories about suppression are coming out, it seems like a lot of independent voters found a way to cast a ballot. so, my corrections have proven unnecessary.
this is not the first state where pre-polling amongst blacks is inconsistent with exit polling. i think it may be worthwhile to question whether there's a bias at play. the numbers demonstrate a strange lack of variation, despite wild variation in polling.
1) the polling suggested that clinton should win blacks handily in michigan. the exit polling was 70/30.
2) the polling suggested that it should be pretty close in illinois. exit polling was 70/30.
3) some polling suggested sanders might even win blacks in wisconsin. exit polling was 70/30.
?
it takes a certain mindset to do an exit poll. i don't want to speculate too heavily, other than to suggest that the exit polling seems suspect. i mean, if the polls were consistent, fine. but they're not. and, there's no particularly logical reason for this racial split, either - if anything, there's a better argument that it's irrational to vote for clinton if you're black (given her history). the polls suggesting more variation make more sense. but, it's prudent to look for some kind of real bias before you start concluding that some centralized body refuses to let the number slip below 70.
conclusion: i was pessimistic about the process and revised the numbers down due to perceived corruption by the party. that corruption appears to have either/both not been present and/or overwhelmed by turnout. i did point out that this is the only tactic, but that the party would go out of it's way to counter it. but, it seems like it didn't. for whatever reason. this does not imply anything at all about previous or future states. the numbers may still tighten, too.
regarding the delegate math: i always assumed a virtual split in wisconsin, and given that you're looking at +/- ten delegates over a wide range of outcomes, almost any conceivable result would really be equivalent. i think they're still figuring out washington? but, i said close to 200, going into new york. if he can get 10 in wyoming and more than 10 in wisconsin, you're looking at 200-210 going into new york. that's about right...
but, he still has to win new york. and convincingly.
i also want to point out that the republicans currently have 100,000 more votes than the democrats do.
in wisconsin.
has wisconsin joined the dark side? not likely. more likely is that clinton supporters are interfering with the republican primary process, to try and stop trump.
...or even just to set up a more favourable matchup, for themselves.
i'm going to again point out, though, that there was sufficient polling done in wisconsin to have caught a funny outcome, if one was attempted.
maybe that had something to do with the apparent cleanness of the results there. or, maybe it's just wisconsin living up to it's reputation. who knows.
i know i'd like to see more polling done at the same frequency for future states, please.