the tory media thinks polievre is going to win the next election, but they must be smoking some of trudeau's pot. i get $500/year from the carbon tax, and it's utterly free money to me. that amount is going to go up. most people benefit. this is not an issue that is going to swing votes to the conservatives, and it especially won't swing the kinds of votes they need to win an election.
the conservatives should be able to defeat trudeau, as he is a legitimately weak candidate, but they've paraded themselves through a comedy of errors that has consistently put their utter incompetence on display. polievre is merely the latest in a string of unserious candidates.
there is a deeper problem on the right, in that their coalition is unstable. the reason they can't present a serious candidate is that they don't have a majority faction in their own party, it's a collection of fringe voices and political outcasts. first amongst fringe candidates is still a crazy person. for that reason, it is the defection of the ndp to the right that the liberals and trudeau should be concerned with.
it may be true that the liberals campaign on the left and govern on the right, but the ndp will campaign as socialists and then govern as national socialists.
the completely fake socialist ndp just literally voted against a wealth redistribution policy that the conservatives were trying to abolish (which makes sense. conservatives don't like wealth redistribution.), and which was saved by the bourgeois liberals (who wrote the wealth redistribution policy) getting support from a left-nationalist party centered in quebec. i can't vote for the bloc quebecois, but i frequently wish that i could.