i will concede that neo-liberalism is popular, and i may take unpopular positions in pushing back against it.
but, i won't confuse it for socialism.
Wednesday, February 26, 2020
regarding the polling, though.
i don't think nevada is going to have much of an effect on south carolina. i did think that iowa, particularly, would have an effect on nevada, and i'd argue that it did.
it is true that sanders seems to have done well with most groups in las vegas, including culinary workers. but, it is still the case that the reason that biden did better here than elsewhere is because he had that union to prop him up - these aren't contradictory statements. remember - biden only got 25% of the ccds in clark county. so, getting 30-35% of the union vote gives lots of room for sanders to crush him, while still explaining why he did better here than elsewhere.
and, buttigieg may have done poorly with black voters, but that was expected; the reason he undershot his target is that he seems to have done poorly with white suburban voters, as well. that's the thing he needs to be worried about, because if he starts losing these white suburban voters in the next couple of states then he has no path forward.
in south carolina, the unions get replaced by the churches, and it's a lot harder for me to get my head around sanders doing well with these conservative black church goers. remember: blacks across the country are not all the same, and it's racist to argue that they are. but, the polling, which is intrinsically racist, does this all of the time.
so, some of the polling is suggesting that biden's numbers are weakening, and that does make some sense, but it makes a lot less sense to think those numbers are moving to sanders. the only argument you can provide for this is herd mentality, and the thing about south carolina is that it has a history of not doing that.
i know that sanders wants to pretend he represents these people, and he may legitimately think he does, but he really doesn't - these people are deeply, staunchly conservative and overwhelmingly directed by their faith. they should be republicans, really. i may criticize their apprehension of voting for a jewish candidate, but i won't trivialize it - it's real. they legitimately don't like him...
so, they're kind of stuck - disenfranchised, even. his numbers have come down in recent polling, but how else do you explain how a tom steyer can come out of nowhere and poll so high in a black state? they're frustrated. they don't like any of them...
this might change soon; this might be the last cycle like this. but, for this election, the black church vote will decide the outcome of the election, it is going to show up to vote in force and it is not going to pick bernie sanders.
the open question, however, is how many younger black voters are out there, right now, and how many of them get out to vote. the sanders campaign is delusional, and will reject this narrative, but it is true nonetheless - sanders is running against the church, and essentially needs to beat it with increased turnout, which is an almost impossible task.
the race does seem to be tightening, though. and, these are the faultlines and the open questions - after squandering so much time and so many resources trying to appeal to southern black conservatives and failing, can bernie pivot effectively and get enough young people out to beat the church, if it schisms, in the end?
but, if steyer is truly fading, and biden consolidates the church vote, sanders doesn't have a chance. and, we may be in for another nightmare, where black voters force the country to deal with yet another subpar candidate that has absolutely no chance of actually winning.
i think that's the overlooked slant here, though. there's been so much focus put on projecting the importance of what they pick, that people have forgotten to ask them what they want. they are disenfranchised, right now, but they almost certainly won't stay home.
it is true that sanders seems to have done well with most groups in las vegas, including culinary workers. but, it is still the case that the reason that biden did better here than elsewhere is because he had that union to prop him up - these aren't contradictory statements. remember - biden only got 25% of the ccds in clark county. so, getting 30-35% of the union vote gives lots of room for sanders to crush him, while still explaining why he did better here than elsewhere.
and, buttigieg may have done poorly with black voters, but that was expected; the reason he undershot his target is that he seems to have done poorly with white suburban voters, as well. that's the thing he needs to be worried about, because if he starts losing these white suburban voters in the next couple of states then he has no path forward.
in south carolina, the unions get replaced by the churches, and it's a lot harder for me to get my head around sanders doing well with these conservative black church goers. remember: blacks across the country are not all the same, and it's racist to argue that they are. but, the polling, which is intrinsically racist, does this all of the time.
so, some of the polling is suggesting that biden's numbers are weakening, and that does make some sense, but it makes a lot less sense to think those numbers are moving to sanders. the only argument you can provide for this is herd mentality, and the thing about south carolina is that it has a history of not doing that.
i know that sanders wants to pretend he represents these people, and he may legitimately think he does, but he really doesn't - these people are deeply, staunchly conservative and overwhelmingly directed by their faith. they should be republicans, really. i may criticize their apprehension of voting for a jewish candidate, but i won't trivialize it - it's real. they legitimately don't like him...
so, they're kind of stuck - disenfranchised, even. his numbers have come down in recent polling, but how else do you explain how a tom steyer can come out of nowhere and poll so high in a black state? they're frustrated. they don't like any of them...
this might change soon; this might be the last cycle like this. but, for this election, the black church vote will decide the outcome of the election, it is going to show up to vote in force and it is not going to pick bernie sanders.
the open question, however, is how many younger black voters are out there, right now, and how many of them get out to vote. the sanders campaign is delusional, and will reject this narrative, but it is true nonetheless - sanders is running against the church, and essentially needs to beat it with increased turnout, which is an almost impossible task.
the race does seem to be tightening, though. and, these are the faultlines and the open questions - after squandering so much time and so many resources trying to appeal to southern black conservatives and failing, can bernie pivot effectively and get enough young people out to beat the church, if it schisms, in the end?
but, if steyer is truly fading, and biden consolidates the church vote, sanders doesn't have a chance. and, we may be in for another nightmare, where black voters force the country to deal with yet another subpar candidate that has absolutely no chance of actually winning.
i think that's the overlooked slant here, though. there's been so much focus put on projecting the importance of what they pick, that people have forgotten to ask them what they want. they are disenfranchised, right now, but they almost certainly won't stay home.
at
03:07
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