Sunday, October 13, 2019

actually, i think that's done already.

what took so long?

well, i got it on the 4th of september, ranted about it all day and then wanted to finish the rebuild for october, 2013 first, which was done on the 10th. i was at a show on the 11th and slept most of the day on the 12th. i spent the 13th & 14th watching debates, the 15th reading the green platform, the 15th-18th uploading everything to youtube, the 18th-19th uploading teasers for period 3, the 20th on the phone, the 20th-22nd at a long detroit party, the 23rd-24th writing the order for the human rights campaign, the 24th at fly pan am, the 25th sleeping, the 26th-30th finalizing the 10/13 archive and inri000 rough draft and republishing the three new period 3 releases, the 30th doing groceries, the 1st-3rd doing facebook x-references and show look aheads , the 4th-6th in detroit and the 7th-12th recovering from being sick, while writing.

it's the 13th. it's done.

hopefully.

let me check when i wake up.

so, that's two of four suits. the fourth was the review of the access request, and it's...yes, i missed my date on that, but i think i can get them to waive it. more to the point is that it's not affecting me. i'm not going to have time.

if something funny happens, i'm going to have to push it. right now, it doesn't seem like it's worth it.

so, the last thing to write is the constitutional challenge, and it'll be a doozy.

the liberals are supposed to do better than this
to be clear.

i made a complaint about police misconduct before i was arrested, in sept, 2018. i finally got an answer in mar, 2019 and immediately appealed it on a correctness basis. basically, they tried to argue reasonable cause on a crime where the law is explicit that reasonable cause is not good enough - you need a warrant to arrest. i was able to prove that the cop lied in his report, which was completely ignored. so, i appealed it on a correctness basis - and was explicit in pointing out that the cops were just flat out fucking wrong. i finally got a response more than three months later that the review was reasonable because it - i'm not bullshitting this - "cited case law". they again ignored the lying.

so, i'm asking for the judge to use certiorari to pull the case to use the correct basis of review and prosecute the cop for lying.

because they were fucking flat out wrong. and i can prove he lied.

the liberals are supposed to do better than this
ok.

here we go.

finally.

and, fwiw - i spent a lot of money last weekend, almost accidentally. i spent about $200 on groceries up front, because i had let things go. i needed stuff like toilet paper and coffee and caesar dressing - just things you need and i had let run down to almost nothing. then i spent $245 on the actual weekend, which is a lot, but i mean...i didn't really realize it until i was standing at the bus stop on the way over. it was like "wait a second".

it was $120 cash, us. but, that's $165 cdn.
i spent $20 on customs,
and another $20 at the phog show.
i had a pre-bought marble ticket for $13.50, which was $18 cdn.
the shots on the way over cost me $10.
and, i spent the balance on a pack of smokes on friday night, before i went over.
that is, indeed, $245. oops.

and, i came back with nothing...

so, $450 of the $500 i had to spend this month (which was inflated by the gst refund - it's usually $400) was gone instantly on the crazy weekend. if i wasn't sick and had gone out to see that show on friday, it would have been it for the month.

i'm feeling that much better; i'm over it, it's just down to a dry cough. but, i'm not buying tickets to toronto until after hallowe'en, at this point, which is partly why i'm taking my time. it actually doesn't matter if i'm done tomorrow or next week because i'm not filing until late november at the earliest, anyways...

i might be able to file the constitutional rights challenge a little earlier, if i can do it here. we'll see what the exact process is.

but, here we go. let's get to it...

the liberals are supposed to do better than this
see, i'm not worried about this, because i think they should have just killed them, anyways.

what were we going to do with these people? give them 90 day jail sentences? try to reintegrate them? the best outcome would have been for the kurds to just kill them.

let the russians finish the job.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/oct/13/kurds-say-785-isis-affiliates-have-escaped-camp-after-turkish-shelling

the liberals are supposed to do better than this
why am i being hard-headed about this?

it's true that i don't think it makes any sense. this is absurdity. the guy's a goof.

but, the numbers just really aren't there.

look, this is what we've got in front of us since the beginning of august:

the liberals have run between 31.5% and 36.9%. that's 5.4%. 5.4/2 = 2.7%. the margin is 2.8-3%. there's no statistically meaningful movement, there - they're running at 34% +/- 3%.

the conservative spread is 7.1, the green spread is 6.7% & the ndp is 7.9%. these are a little bit outside of the margin, which would be 6% at it's maximum extent. but, not substantively so. the fact that the bloc and ndp are at highs and the liberals are at a low is not as important as you probably think.

you have to really move a good distance with these kinds of polls, especially when you're coming out of a lull.

it could be in a day or two that we could look back at this as the start of a trend. or, we could look back at it and say that it's just a blip. the liberal and conservative numbers have been coming up and down for weeks - you can't draw anything from that. trying to draw conclusions from just a small part of the graph would be cherry-picking data. it's just too early to do it.

the liberals are supposed to do better than that
rihanna should invite jagmeet over for a few beers to talk it out and see how much she actually likes him after that.

the liberals are supposed to do better than this
they can always redeem themselves by writing detailed essays explaining the specific policy proposals taken by the ndp and jagmeet singh that define their support for him.

i'm not holding my breath.

let's hope it's a blip.

or, let's hope that these low information voters don't actually vote.

the liberals are supposed to do better than this
rihanna and trevor noah should really probably just shut up.

the liberals are supposed to do better than this
i would rather that completely uninformed and totally ignorant american celebrities didn't interfere in our election, but what do you do?

they did.

they shouldn't have. but, they did.

the liberals are supposed to do better than this
no, i'm not going to follow the herd.

i'm not a follower. i never have been. i will stand up for what's unpopular - i always have. but, those that fear the magic beard veto may want to be concerned about it, if it turns out that this is being driven more by trevor noah and rihanna than by the debates.

if we have a pop culture zombie apocalypse amongst low information voters upon us, we may be forced to deal with this idiot, after all.

the liberals are supposed to do better than this
the document says 20, but it's actually 19.7, so it's not yet over my stated threshold.

if the next batch of sample comes in and the ndp is higher than 20%, then that's signal. if it flops around at 18-19%, then the signal is fading. and, if it falls down, it's just fluctuation around the mean - and likely explained by the long weekend, rather than the debate or a bradley effect.

the numbers are less weird, here, though. more to the point is that the number of undecideds is falling.

the actual numbers are:

liberals 28.0
conservatives 28.8
ndp 17.8
green 8.0
undecided 10.9

the undecideds were closer to 15% a few days ago. that's where the real movement is. the liberals and conservatives are each down a point or two, which is just static at this point; the real break seems to be from the undecided, which took a big leap to the ndp.

i guess they found singh's deep arguments at the debate to be compelling. "mr. delay and mr. deny". profound stuff. lol.

i'm going to give it one more day, but there's very close to almost being a signal. i'm baffled, but so be it.

i will say, though, that the movement from the undecideds is particularly suggestive of a bradley effect, but, you can't know that until it actually happens.

https://secureservercdn.net/198.71.233.47/823.910.myftpupload.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/2019-1445-CTV-Globe-ELXN-2019-10-12.pdf

the liberals are supposed to do better than this
who are the kurds? where did they come from? how long have they been there?

there's not really accepted answers to these questions, but i do think there are obvious ones, so i'm going to avoid citations, here. you'll have to take me as an authority on this. and, maybe i even am.

what can we observe about the kurds? well, they speak an offshoot of persian, indicating they're not indigenous to the region. dna studies are sometimes trotted out to back up this or that theory, but this area is too genetically complicated for that - all you can learn from dna is that they've interbred with the people around them, it doesn't tell us anything about where they came from or how long they've been there.

so, some people may try to build some theories that suggest that they're actually the descendants of the medes, but these are built largely on what linguists call false cognates. kurds like these theories for obvious reasons - it extends their history back quite far. and, on some level, iranian-speakers in the region today have some reason to extend their heritage to iranian speakers in antiquity - there is obviously some descent, there. but, there's no compelling evidence to suggest that the kurds are particularly descendant from any specific tribe or group in any specific tribe or place, based on dna or language.

what do the historical records say? this is the fertile crescent, we have a long history here. but, the kurds simply do not appear in history until many years after the islamic conquest of persia. i'll let you look up the exact dates, but i believe the first mention of the term 'kurd' is in the ninth century...CE.  so, that's about a hundred years or so after the fall of persia to islamic soldiers. the term, as it is used in the sources, appears to be less of an ethnic term and more of a word that meant "refugee", "wanderer" or "tent dweller", and they were said to live in remote regions, in the mountains. so, the kurds first show up in history as iranian speaking refugees of the islamic conquests, in hard to get places.

it's always baffled me why this isn't good enough, why it's necessary to figure out the secret ancient history of this group, that appears in the mountains out of nowhere. the first-person histories that we have of the islamic conquests are not exactly the best sources of information, obviously - there's kind of a clear bias, there. they weren't particularly concerned about the fate of retreating infidels, but they were exceedingly interested in making themselves seem wise and legitimate. so, documenting how many people escaped the killing and fled into the mountains wasn't really their major priority. yet, the fact that we have this substantive group of persian-speaking refugees appear out of nowhere does seem to imply that there was quite a bit of fleeing.

so, my hypothesis is that the kurds were actually persian refugees from the islamic conquests, that they are people that fled the (at the time) persian-speaking cities of mesopotamia and fled off into the mountains. over time, they appear to have been converted, and to have retained a prominent place in the region - they were soldiers and governors, and, less often, scholars. but, they were basically just the descendants of the persians that had been there since cyrus.

where would that place them in history? kind of uniquely. they would be expelled conquerors that got stuck in an accident of history. generally, conquerors are either expelled or assimilated - they don't just hang out for thousands of years, while other groups successively conquer.

but, it also means that they are quintessentially iranians and, one way or another, should ultimately exist within a greater iran.

because the region has such a long history, we know who was there before the iranians/persians moved in. the armenians lived to the north, and the assyrians lived to the south. they fought wars against each other; the assyrians won. but, these are the indigenous groups here, not the kurds.

sadly, the kurds were the foot soldiers - the actual killers - in a series of genocidal attacks against the indigenous armenians and assyrians that started in the first world war, and is usually said to have ended in the second world war. but, has it ended? or is it ongoing?

the liberals are supposed to do better than this
so, how am i feeling?

i got something to eat a little after midnight. no headache. yet. i think i'm safe. i only napped in the evening, though - i might need to actually sleep. or, maybe a long day is a good sign.

the nasal congestion is clearing. i'm still coughing, but it's loosening up - i'm absolutely getting better.

the summers over; the heat clicked in yesterday. so, i'm hoping i can get the fan off, and i'm hoping we're done with the issue with the sewers, at least for a bit. i just shifted my fan to under the desk, bit seems like it took minutes for the smoke to assert itself - there's somebody smoking very heavily upstairs.

if i'm in for the year, i may not have another cigarette until march or april. i need people to respect that i don't smoke in the house, and don't smoke at all in the winter. i'm going to get livid if this becomes an issue based on somebody's flawed concept of addiction - no, what i do outside of the house is not a license for you to do things inside of the house. it's not complicated. and, yes, i can smell it - always. well, unless i'm sick...

yes, it's perfectly predictable that i'll go six months without smoking. i've been doing that periodically for 15 years.

so, i may have to put the fan back on top of the desk, which i don't want to do now that i know that the primary issue is with the p-trap. ugh. this is the kind of bullshit that allowing for residential smoking creates....

so, i'm operating at about 85% strength at this point.

i'm way past due. but, i've eaten. so, i'm going to refresh my coffee, brush my teeth and finally get started on this.

we'll see how i feel about the chelsea wolfe show, but there's a good chance that i'm in for the month. 

the liberals are supposed to do better than this
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-anti-kurdish-protests-in-eastern-syria-could-endanger-us-plans/

https://www.ft.com/content/40dabd50-d072-11e7-b781-794ce08b24dc


https://www.barakabooks.com/the-myth-of-the-kurdish-ypgs-moral-excellence-stephen-gowans/

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC9c-X2arfW3o7QzcN-ccKwQ/videos

the liberals are supposed to do better than this
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-syria-kurds-protests/arabs-in-syrias-deir-al-zor-protest-against-ruling-kurdish-militia-residents-idUSKCN1S40RD

the liberals are supposed to do better than this
again: canada's position should be obvious, here.

we should be supporting a un peacekeeping force to come in, phase the kurds out, allow the refugees to return and bring the country back to a concept of normalcy.

https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2019/05/23/the-kurds-are-creating-a-state-of-their-own-in-northern-syria

the liberals are supposed to do better than this
trump's withdrawal has upset saudi ambitions in the region.

that is why the entire establishment has heaved over it, tout ensemble.

it has nothing to do with the kurds.

the liberals are supposed to do better than this
when you look at the situation from a distance, it is really clear that the european policy is just carrying on with it's old imperialist ambitions and colonial self.

and, while they're hiding behind a facade of human rights, what they're really doing is aligning with saudi oil money.

there are no good answers in the region. but, i'll pick the turks over the saudis as the hegemon in the region any day, thanks.

the liberals are supposed to do better than this
what the european powers should be doing in syria is spending a lot of money to establish a peacekeeping force along the turkish border that helps facilitate the withdrawal of kurdish militants and the return of syrian refugees.

that is their end goal, right? to facilitate the return of syrian refugees?

instead, they're threatening to suspend turkey from nato.

this is like breaking a product at a store, and then threatening to boycott the store when they ask you to pay for it. the europeans are out to fucking lunch on this; their reaction is truly outrageous, and should be invoking outrage by the liberal classes in this country.

again: i'd rather the united nations were taking the lead on this. this is exactly what a un peacekeeping force ought to be doing. we have an occupation by kurdish forces on arab lands, and an occupying force that is largely peaceful but won't leave. so, we should be able to orchestrate a staged, peaceful withdrawal.

but, the actors are taking absurd and outrageous positions that seem to have more to do with oil politics and conservative value systems than they do with human rights - so what should be the obvious outcome has become an impossibility, abandoning the turks to do the dirty work that the world should be helping them do.

europe needs to take responsibility for the situation, not pretend they're taking the high road by condemning an operation they should be a part of. their position is beyond wrong, and people supporting their position are beyond wrong, too.

the liberals are supposed to do better than this
actually, i would like to watch the townhall on queer issues, more as entertainment than education as i'm not going to support any of these candidates unless they embrace universal healthcare as a starting point, but it hasn't been uploaded anywhere.

the liberals are supposed to do better than this
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/commentary/article-abandoning-the-dairy-supply-management-system-would-create-more/

the liberals are supposed to do better than this