the reason the liberals jumped from third place in 2015 to win is that thomas mulcair very stupidly tried to run in the centre and it blew up in his face. singh is making the same mistake, and it reflects a shift in the party.

the ndp keeps making the mistake of running to the right of the liberals whenever they think they might win because they are actually to the right of the liberals.

the ndp has decided to oppose carbon rebates in canada. this is a devastating political error, and it might be dramatic enough to save the liberal government.

climate change is very much a ballot issue for a very large percentage of left-leaning canadians and, by opposing carbon rebates, the ndp are taking themselves out of the competition for the very large pool of voters in canada that swings around on the left of the spectrum. ndp opposition to carbon rebates leaves the liberals as the only choice left on the ballot by default.

the fact that the conservatives are trying to frame this as a ballot issue is going to make this particularly difficult for the ndp and especially in liberal-ndp urban ridings. i am in one of those ridings, and i might project a high likelihood of a liberal win in windsor-west due to the ndp opposing carbon rebates, as i now essentially have no choice but to vote liberal or not at all if i don't want to lose my carbon rebate. as this is a very poor riding, that $1000 a year makes a real difference in people's lives. they will mobilize to prevent losing the rebate.

conversely, it will not make the ndp any more competitive in rural ridings, where the carbon rebate is seen as a "tax" instead of as a rebate.

this is not exactly good news for the liberals, as the outcome might be an unworkable parliament. however, it is very bad news for the ndp, who are seeing their poll numbers cave as a result of a tone deaf shift to the extreme right in an attempt to appease wealthy upper class donors that don't like carbon rebates because they redistribute wealth from the rich to the poor. the ndp's voting base is correctly aghast at this bizarre policy shift in the wrong direction to appeal to the wrong people.

due to this major strategic mistake, along with a few others, like sympathizing with far right palestinian terrorists, i think it is the ndp that is going to be virtually wiped out in the next election as they are no longer identifiable as a left-wing political party due to the aforementioned shifts to the hard right, and the liberals will probably hang on by a thread, in an outcome that might be similar to 1979.

it's strangely topical.

again.