see, you think that we're here:

and you're worried about this coming up, in the future:

...but we're actually only here.

....meaning we have to get to vitalogy before this starts to slow down, still.

sorry.

actually, strangely, mexico is now the most obese country in the world. i should have checked that before posting; i thought it was obvious. but, no - they've recently even passed the united states as most obese country, flat out.

so, it could actually be relatively bad there, then, and you might see a mortality curve that it's actually skewed a little younger.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Obesity_in_Mexico

i think we should get through the first wave before we start talking about a second wave. this is virology, not punk rock.

most of north america hasn't peaked yet. it's starting to pick up in mexico now, but remember that they have that low life expectancy card to play, and much lower levels of obesity as well. in the end, you should probably expect the mortality rate in mexico to actually be quite a bit lower for that reason. they're seeing it ramp up there now, though...

but, is a second wave inevitable?

it depends on if it substantively mutates.

that's what these historical waves are - different mutations.

so, it's not inevitable, no, and it really has little to do with government, except in the sense of the importance of actually tracking the thing. the only thing the government can really do to stop a second wave is to overtest as much as possible, and be ready to do extremely aggressive contact tracing if it finds a more vicious mutation.

but, if the thing stays relatively stable, or if we've already seen the most substantive mutations, then a second wave isn't likely at all.

the thing you really need to be worried about is how flu-like it really is, and the little bit of evidence i've seen suggests that it is recombining, and that this might make vaccines fleeting - they may need to be updated quite frequently. in that case, you're going to be looking at waves pretty much every year, and they're no longer waves but seasons. that's probably the most likely outcome, in the long run.

the reality is that these people were mostly so old and sick that they were going to die of the first thing they got hit with - not just the flu but, in some cases, the common cold. this is what got them, but the reality is that they were mostly really honestly sitting around waiting to die.

but, the things that could have been done are not esoteric truths that require deep study to uncover. the white paper i posted earlier predicted all of this, and a little basic reasoning uncovers the following:

1) they should have prevented all visitation into these homes immediately. they didn't. in fact, the state run media actually encouraged older people to "hug their grandchildren", in a truly retarded display of conservative anti-science anti-intellectualism that would make jonathan swift proud.

2) they can't have workers moving around between homes like that, or even going out and about. it's insanity. when a pandemic hits, you really need to lock these people in place and you have to realize what's at stake. 

they need to build firewalls around these institutions that they can lock in place when they need to - and if their bleeding hearts won't allow them to, they'll have to realize the consequences of their squeamishness.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-long-term-care-commission-1.5575035

we're all forced to sleep, sometimes. i had a nice, long day yesterday, at least, but it came to a really screeching halt with a hard pass out around 5:00, midway through eating.

i got all of my shopping done. all the fruit is put away. laundry is half done. and, i really just need to do lingering laundry before i finish up what i was doing.

soon.

i don't want to see a dime cut from anything. nobody voted for this.

the government pushed this down on us unilaterally without so much as a referendum, so let's raise corporate and property taxes to offset the deficit, instead.

https://globalnews.ca/news/6965183/coronavirus-rec-centres-ice-rinks-could-be-first-victims-of-budget-cuts-as-cities-forced-to-balance-books/

if anybody tries to force me to wear a mask, i will refuse to do so, and sue them for a charter breach.

this is getting ridiculous.

but, is that how it starts?

listen, it's increasingly becoming clear that the reason that the swedes are being targeted is that they didn't do what they were told. they're being treated as a rogue state, and punished for their insolence. but, who is orchestrating this? and why?

do you realize who owns twitter? it's a part of the reason it weirds me out so much. that's a major channel of communication, and is controlled by just about the worst actor possible.

if i were to measure my concern on a scale from 1 to 10, it remains on the low side, but all of this strangeness persists, and i'm wondering if it's getting closer to the midpoint. frankly, though, i'm less concerned about realizing what's happening, and more concerned about reacting to it.

we're on a very disturbing trajectory, and it doesn't seem random, it seems incremental.