Saturday, November 9, 2019

can bloomberg hurt biden in the south?

no.

you know who could, though, is al gore. and, what side is al on these days, anyways?

it's a hard task. they're loyal. they vote in blocs, because they know they have to. and, they're conservative as fuck.

so, if it crossed your mind? no. good tactic, wrong player.
what i should do is try to boot a linux distro from a usb stick, just to see how it picks up the battery.

if i can confirm that the charging issue is specific to the chromium os, the next step will be to wipe the thing down completely and put a lightweight linux distro on it instead.
This Chromebook comes with a dual-core Intel Celeron 1007u processor clocks in at 1.5 GHz, 4GB of RAM, a 16GB SSD, and a 720p camera. Despite a relatively low price of $244, the 4GB of RAM and 720p camera are very surprising but welcome additions. Usually, Chromebooks include a lower resolution webcam of 640 x 480 and rarely come with more than 2GB of RAM. These upgrades definitely turn the ThinkPad X131e into more of a workhorse, allowing you to run more tabs for improved productivity and higher-resolution video conferences. So far, everything looks great on paper.

i should be able to find a linux distro that can install itself with a few simple office tools on a 16 gb ssd partition, you'd think.

this machine just needs to be a glorified phone, remember - a phone i can actually type on.
i needed to crash, clearly.

and, i need to actually catch-up and get what i'm doing finished, now.

but, i'm not thinking that expending a lot of time trying to fix the chrome os on this chromebook is worthwhile. frankly, i don't actually like the os - i don't like the unnecessary focus on security (forcing you to type in a long pass key every time you want to use it), and i don't like the limitations on installing software. it was useful for what it was while it worked, but i want more control over it.

so, i would rather just install windows, anyways.

but, if i can get a normal linux install, instead, that's a step forwards, and one i can probably compromise with.

and, i wonder if i can actually install a normal hard drive in it, or not - i have a few around.

that's in a few days. first, i want to get done what i was doing, it's more important.
ok, so i got distracted again.

i was a little hungover this morning, and not entirely at full strength, but i'd like to stretch the day out as far as i can, here. so, i'm going to make some coffee and finally get a move on the reassemble.
in the mean time, i'll have no choice but to reduce usage in order to minimize costs.
if my primary concern is that they're changing the system so that poor people lose their rebates, and, again, they were targeted because they need it the most, what's the solution?

you boost the oesp amount by the amount that you expect the average price to increase by.

so, if $45 was the average value of x+f, and you're increasing x by 55%, then you make the following adjustment:

1) x + 27 = 45 <-----> x=18
2) 18*1.55 = 27.9
3) 27.90 + 27 = 54.90

so, if they increased the amount from 45 to 55, as the data will instruct them to do within a few months, then they can alleviate the issue where it's most important.

the validity of this argument is in realizing that $45 was not chosen arbitrarily. it is the average price. if you increase the rates, the average price shifts with it, and the oesp amount should change to reflect it. otherwise, you're just taking money away from poor people, and giving it to utility companies.

as was the case with the carbon tax oversight, this is just bad governance. they should have done this. it should have been obvious.

for me, that would mean that if my x is 19 and it goes up by 55%, then my new price before taxes is:

19*1.55 + 27 = 56.45.

subtracting out the $55 would leave me with a bill for $1.45 - which, after accounting for rounding errors on a small number, is close enough to a 55% increase.

1.13*1.45 - .318*1.13*1.45 = $1.11.

that's a $0.03 increase - which is roughly in line with inflation.
....and, expect the government to do a song and dance about the rebate, because it thinks you're too stupid to figure it out. that's the bait and switch - look the other way at the billions of dollars being thrown at ford's buddies in the industry, because you get a nice 32% rebate (after they jacked the price up by 55% on the backs of the poor).

well.

maybe you are, though.

i mean, you voted for them, right?

i'm not a fiscal conservative. but, your kids will pay for this blunder.
what was the point of doing this, exactly?

apparently, the government wants you to "know the true price of electricity"?

what? why? who cares?

if you're curious, this "true price" is set by the ontario electricity board, which is an industry captured regulatory body, and is something like five times the price as it is in competing jurisdictions. so, even if there was some value to knowing the "true price", it's pretty clear that this isn't actually it. it hardly seems worth the effort, does it?

i guess that they might think that there's some kind of propaganda value in adding a giant rebate to the bill - and you will now see a 32% rebate on every bill - but that's hardly going to be effective if the people that care most about electrical costs are going to have their rates increased by 800-1000%.

rather, what they're doing is a hand-out to the industry, and they're doing it on the backs of poor people.

first, who is affected, and how?

1) poor people that qualify and receive their rebates will have the effectiveness of their rebates reversed - rebates that were targeted to them because they need it the most. the rebates are not being cancelled. but, if a million of us have to pay an extra $10 a month, that's a $120 million dollar cut in welfare for people that need it.
2) people that don't qualify for the rebates, and that still use small amounts of electricity (meaning bourgeois liberals, essentially) will actually get a small rate cut. if you don't qualify for the rebates, you won't care about a $4 cut. but, if there's 3 million people that save $4 a month, that's a 144 million dollar tax cut for people that don't need it. so, you see what they did here?
3) if you use a lot of electricity, you're going to get reamed by a 10%+ rate hike. enjoy your $7, though.

and, what is the actual effect of the changes?

1) the amount that producers can charge is going up by 55%. so, they're going to get much higher profits.
2) the amount that the government is subsidizing is going up from 8% to 32%. that's a four fold increase. so, the amount of money that taxpayers are giving the producers is going to increase dramatically, thereby increasing their profits even more.

together, that's called corporate welfare.

and, that's the baffling thing about it - if there was ever any reason to criticize the system that existed, it was that it was siphoning out public money into the hands of private corporations. the liberals can be awful, it is true. but, they're not so blatantly corrupt as this....

so,

1) you're looking at a cash transfer from students and disabled people to toronto condo owners.
2) you're looking at huge amounts of money being shoveled out of public coffers and into private industry, which is going to contribute to the deficit, while ford and his cronies laugh about it all the way to the bank.

this is what they do when they win. every time.
personally, it puts me into a confusing state, and i'll have to see what the bill looks like.

if the line order in the calculation remains the same, my previous calculation is correct, and my bill will go from $1.00 to $8.00. this is because they take the $45 credit out before they add the tax or the rebate. so, i have to eat the rate increase, but then i don't get the rebate to offset it.

my calculation is this:

1.13*(x*1.55 + f  - 45) - .318(1.13*x*1.55 + 1.13f - 1.13*45) =     (f=27)
1.13*(1.55x -18) - .318(1.7515x -20.34) =
1.194523x -13.87188

that seems better at first, except that my old bill was:

1.13*((x + f) - 45) - 0.08(1.13*(x+f-45)) =       (f=27)
1.13*(x-18) - 0.0904(x-18) =
1.0396(x-18) =
1.0396x - 18.7128.

subtracting out, i get the 15.5% increase, but am now adding an extra $4.84. static. and, that doesn't change with usage.

that means if my x is $19, my increase in cost only seems to be $2.94, but then i have to increase that by $4.84 rather than subtract it by $7.26.

how can i reverse that and get back to saving credits?

x*1.55 + 27 <  45 <----> x*1.55 < 18 <----> x < $11.60.

when i first moved in here, before i had the fan running all of the time, i was actually able to get my usage to less than $10. so, i know i can do it, if i can get the air quality in here cleared out enough that i can get the fans off.

in the mean time, as mentioned, i'm going to have to start turning off the modem when i'm not using it, and essentially completely disconnect everything during the day.
so, i had to fix that. sorry. honest.

but, they're still lying.
i'm going to correct the math slightly.

i multiplied the f by 155% thinking it would come out in the wash, but i actually dropped a factor. see, for me, i have a rebate, so it does come out in the wash - for my bill, specifically, i was right. but, more generally, that added term is important.

so, lets say your cost is x + f, where f is the fixed rate. the increase in cost will be 1.55x + f. then, you add tax: 1.13*(1.55x + f) = 1.7515x + 1.13f. then, you can subtract the 31.8%

1.7515x + 1.13f - 0.318*(1.7515x + 1.13f) =
x*(1.7515 - 0.318*1.7515) + f*(1.13-.318*1.13) =
1.194523x + 0.77066f.

that's your new price, where x is the previous cost of electricity minus the fixed rate and f is the fixed rate.

your previous price was:

(x +f)*1.13 - (x+f)*1.13*0.08 =
(x + f)(1.0396).

so, the difference in price is then still +0.154923x (albeit f less than the previous x), but it's also -0.26894f. the reason for this is that the fixed price did not go up by 55%, but will go down by 32%. that's the term i dropped.

here, f is about $27. so, you're still looking at that 15.5% increase (on an x that is f less), but then minus a fixed amount of $7.26. that's my error. i apologize.

so, if your electrical bill was $127 last month before taxes and adjustments, then x is $100 and f is $27, so your new bill will be 15.5% higher in electrical costs (applied to the $100, not the $127), but then $7.26 less. that $7.26 is a fixed amount and will not increase or decrease with usage. so, your bill will then go from $132 to $140, rather than from $132 to $152. it's still not $2 - it's just $7.26 less than the 15.5% i previously calculated.

so, your bills will go up by 15.5%, still.

it's just that then they go down by another $7.26. and, i'll let you calculate whether that's in your interest or not.

but, x*1.155 - 7.26 < (x + 2.00) <----> x*.155<9.26 <----> x<$59.74.

so, if your bill is usually $83 or higher you're going to be paying more than $2 more, and the amount will increase as you use. if your bill is actually often in the $300 range (assume x=300, f=27), you're looking at a $39 increase, which is more than 11%. that number will approach 15.5% as costs increase, but never exceed it.

so, that's another way to look at it - that 15.5% is a limit. a maximum amount. that's what you get by dropping the "error term".
sorry.

15.5%.
how low would your electrical bill have to be to have the difference be $2?

x*0.154923 < $2.00   <------->  x < $12.90.

i thought, maybe, they were just excluding the delivery charges, which would be dishonest but deconstructible. no.

there's no way to make sense of the email i got from enwin; it's just a terrible, horrible lie.

expect your bills to go up by 15%.
and, the idea that the price is going to only go up by 2% is just wrong.

let's say your current electrical cost is x. the price is going up 155%, so your new price is 1.55x. then, they'll charge you tax, so that's another 0.13*1.55x, so your new price is 1.7515x. they'll then reduce that by 31.8%, so that's

1.7515x - 0.318*1.7515x = 1.194523x.

previously, they would have charged you tax (1.13x) and then reduced it by 8% (1.13x - 0.08*1.13x = 1.0396x).

1.194523x - 1.0396x = 0.154923x. that's a 15% percent increase.

and, indeed, if your normal electrical price is $150 (how?), you're going to go from $155.94 to $179.18. that's not $2.

if you're actually one of these poor suckers that uses $300 of electricity, per month (including delivery)? your bill will go from $312 to....$358.36.

you know doug. he's in it for you.
so, it's that much more important that i get the battery fixed in the chromebook.

and, i'm going to start disconnecting from the internet and going into battery mode between 7:00-19:00.

my sleeping schedule for the winter is also now fixed...

this is going to have a gigantic shift on my behaviour and habits, because i'm not giving these fuckers a dime.
i'm looking at an electrical bill that is going to be ten times as high as it was.
what has the government done, here?

1) it's increased the price of electricity, by 53-55%.
2) it's then increased the rebates from 8% to 32%, which is 24%.

so, let's say your bill was $45. well, that's my bill. why is yours so much?

this is my bill from last month:

on peak - $3.77
mid peak - $2.69
off peak - $7.62
total:  $14.08
 
i then have to pay enwin $31.95 in "delivery charges". so, it was $46.03.

i have a $45 oesp credit, so that left me with a bill for $1.03. they then charged me $0.13 hst, so it's $1.16 with tax. then, they gave me my 8% rebate...which was $0.08.

my bill is going to go up 55%, now. so, instead of being $14.08, it's going to be $21.82. further, the "delivery charges" will go up by some amount, and i'm not working it out. so, my bill will now be around $55 instead of $46.

they'll then take the $45 credit out, so it will be $11.

then they'll charge me tax, which is 13%.  so, i'm looking at $12-13. after they apply their increased rebate, i'm going to be looking at $8.00-9.00 for electricity.

per month.

....for a service that should be owned and operated by the people of this province on a non-profit basis.

so, i'm outraged - this is just an obvious cash grab by ford and his private sector cronies, and everybody with a brain saw it coming a million miles away. it's exactly what happened under mike harris - they promised lower electrical rates, and their privatization schemes instead pushed the price through the roof.

we need public ownership of these utilities, and nobody is willing to run on it.

personally? i'm not going to pay for this. i'll cut my usage down, until it's next to nothing. i'll go type in the coffee shop, if i have to.
i can't believe how stupid the sitting government is. and, i can't believe how stupid the province is for voting for them.

this is a catastrophe.

i'm essentially going to have to turn all electricity in the unit off between 7:00 am and 7:00 pm, now.

============

Dear Valued ENWIN Customer,
We wanted to make you aware of two important changes that may impact your bill:

Winter Time of Use Hours Now In Effect

We would like to remind you Winter Time-of-Use hours are now in effect starting November 1, 2019. Remember, electricity rates are lower during off-peak hours. For the lowest possible bill, adjust your consumption accordingly.

Ontario Energy Board Sets New Electricity Prices

The Ontario Energy Board (OEB) has also set new Time-of-Use electricity prices for households and small businesses, effective November 1st, under the Regulated Price Plan (RPP).
Prior to November 1st, 2019, time-of-use electricity rates included a built in rebate, which artificially reduced the cost of power. Your bill also included an additional 8% provincial rebate.
Starting November 1st, 2019, Ontario is making your electricity bill more transparent by moving the built in rebate included in the electricity rates and identifying the full rebate amount separately on your bill. With this change, the 8% provincial rebate will be replaced by a much larger 31.8% Ontario Energy Rebate (OER). This increased rebate will largely offset the rate changes.
Time-of-Use Price Period / Rebate Prior to November 1, 2019 Starting November 1, 2019
Off-Peak Rate 6.5¢/kWh 10.1¢/kWh
Mid-Peak Rate 9.4¢/kWh 14.4¢/kWh
On-Peak Rate 13.4¢/kWh 20.8¢/kWh
Rebate (subtracted from your bill) 8% Provincial Rebate 31.8% Ontario Energy Rebate
The total bill for a typical residential customer who uses 700 kWh per month will increase by about $1.99 or 1.8% with this change, which is in line with the rate of inflation.
For additional information on this rate change including a sample bill, please click the link below:
https://www.oeb.ca/newsroom/2019/ontario-energy-board-sets-new-electricity-prices-households-and-small-businesses


Customer Service: 519-255-2727
Business Hours are 8:00 am - 4:30 pm Monday to Friday
Email: info@enwin.com
the premise that alzheimer's is a hereditary genetic condition is just not well thought through. so, it's one of those things that you can throw data at me regarding, and i'm just going to search for holes in it - i will never take the idea seriously, because it's incoherent on it's face. rather, i'm confident that i'll find the flaw in your study.

can we be born with genes that cognitively impair us from birth? yes. we have down's syndrome as an example. evolution can sometimes make mistakes.

and, can our dna get damaged as it goes to copy itself? sure. that happens all of the time. that's how some types of cancer function, and can both happen as a consequence of exposure to toxins or radiation, or just from the process fucking up.

but, does the idea of a gene that is programmed to eat our brains out from the inside when we reach a certain age actually make any sense? no. that's ridiculous.

it's caused by pollution. deal with it.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/01/brain-pollution-evidence-builds-dirty-air-causes-alzheimer-s-dementia