again: i'm not convinced that the convention had anything to do with trump's temporary bump, or clinton's recovery. i think there's a pattern that suggests he gets temporary bumps on terrorist activity and that they fade when people get over their anger and regain the use of their brains. we'll have to see how that develops.
Monday, August 1, 2016
j reacts to some new polls & their methodologies
the cbs and cnn polls are both reporting reliable methodologies, although i'm not certain that the cbs poll is using live interviewers (live interviewers are more reliable than robocalls). those are the first two sets of reliable polling results, so far.
again: i'm not convinced that the convention had anything to do with trump's temporary bump, or clinton's recovery. i think there's a pattern that suggests he gets temporary bumps on terrorist activity and that they fade when people get over their anger and regain the use of their brains. we'll have to see how that develops.
again: i'm not convinced that the convention had anything to do with trump's temporary bump, or clinton's recovery. i think there's a pattern that suggests he gets temporary bumps on terrorist activity and that they fade when people get over their anger and regain the use of their brains. we'll have to see how that develops.
31-07-2016: more mri drama
tracks worked on in this vlog:
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/schizoid-terrorist-2
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/period-1
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/schizoid-terrorist-2
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/period-1
that was a really weird day...
i found myself spending basically the whole night listening to songs about rain. i dunno. i guess i just wanted to waste the day.
i actually think that i can close inri014 before i crash. let's see...
https://youtu.be/fmxbaHXOXGw?list=PLrHImg7oLm2ZZzCOQLPx8rYj0eXEP8AGP
i found myself spending basically the whole night listening to songs about rain. i dunno. i guess i just wanted to waste the day.
i actually think that i can close inri014 before i crash. let's see...
https://youtu.be/fmxbaHXOXGw?list=PLrHImg7oLm2ZZzCOQLPx8rYj0eXEP8AGP
j reacts to trump as hyper-zionist, islamophobic....nazi?
i'm more concerned about trump being a dangerous zionist than i am about him being a nazi.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/08/26/david-duke-donald-trump-is-too-zionist-for-me.html
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/08/26/david-duke-donald-trump-is-too-zionist-for-me.html
i'm sorry, but i don't at all see why the question of sacrifice is remotely important. if i were trump, i would have said that i haven't made any sacrifices and aggressively asked why it's important to make sacrifices. this is a free society. living in it is about advancing self-interest, not about making sacrifices. so, i don't know where this is coming from. is it in islam? calvinism? but, i don't identify with it.
j reacts to the laughable idea that pennsylvania is a swing state
pennsylvania's not a swing state. the urban population is simply too large of a percentage of the population.
on top of florida and ohio, trump also has to win virginia, missouri and one of nevada or iowa.
it's not likely.
he has no choice but to find a way to win virginia.
that was a correct calculation, so long as it doesn't backfire.
on top of florida and ohio, trump also has to win virginia, missouri and one of nevada or iowa.
it's not likely.
he has no choice but to find a way to win virginia.
that was a correct calculation, so long as it doesn't backfire.
j reacts to "public policy polling"
"Public Policy Polling surveyed 1,276 likely voters on July 29th and 30th. The margin of error is +/-2.7%. 80% of participants, selected through a list based sample, responded via the phone, while 20% of respondents who did not have landlines conducted the survey over the internet through an opt-in internet panel."
you can throw them in the trash, too. i'm still waiting for a good firm to present itself.
with something like this, it just opens up the possibility that that 20% is being used to falsify the results. 1,000 people is a large enough sample this early in the race. there's no reason to bring this opt-in panel in other than to fuck with the results.
so, i don't want to naively accuse them of polluting the sample. no. they're doing it on purpose.
if they'd like to release just the real polling data separately, that would shut me up. don't count on it.
you can throw them in the trash, too. i'm still waiting for a good firm to present itself.
with something like this, it just opens up the possibility that that 20% is being used to falsify the results. 1,000 people is a large enough sample this early in the race. there's no reason to bring this opt-in panel in other than to fuck with the results.
so, i don't want to naively accuse them of polluting the sample. no. they're doing it on purpose.
if they'd like to release just the real polling data separately, that would shut me up. don't count on it.
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