09-03-2016: guerilla toss - lucky king sheep? (detroit)

their music:
https://guerillatoss.bandcamp.com/

review:
http://dghjdfsghkrdghdgja.appspot.com/categories/shows/2016/03/09.html

vlog for the day:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6yeGtA7Z8RY

my music:
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com

"to put it a little more succinctly...

the british empire created conflict to open up markets.

the american empire creates markets by ensuring endless conflict."

remember: none of the polling released up to this point means anything anymore. throw it away. those averages are worthless. last night changed everything.

which, again, doesn't mean that sanders has some magic advantage. it just means that there's currently not any data available. you'll have to wait a few days, for some post-results polling. and, hopefully, some post-debate polling, where it's relevant.

but, preliminary polling suggest that ohio is similar to michigan and her lead in florida is more real.

at the height of the fedora craze, i had a zero tolerance policy. all fedoras were blocked on contact.

i'm adopting the same strategy with this "you're retarded" wave of what i believe are paid trump supporters. insta-block.

i'd encourage you to adopt the same tactic.

this isn't a video that was captured by some random person, and then went viral. this is a video that was put up on the official cnn site with a political motive, flooded with fake comments, etc. it's the system identifying a threat and going into exterminate mode.

if you can't see through this for what it is, you deserve hillary.

--

jogariba jogariba
Why is everyone in this here comment section so ridiculously uneducated and probably 14?

jessica
they all use the same lines - it's centralized. this is a tactic. they seem to have taken over a few months ago, indicating that it's probably the trump campaign. but, there's some possibility that it's deeper than that, too. the only real difference between this new wave of thought police agents is that they seem to have dispensed with the premise that persuasion through discourse is worthwhile, and have resorted entirely to intimidation through name-calling. they're not going to go away.

j reacts to what michigan actually tells us about the fairness of the process

cognitive dissonance update

so, is this rigged?

well, the result was a little better than the numbers. easy to explain. put this to rest?

not quite. you don't prove a negative, right. that's why these conspiracy theories are hard to get rid of.

let's try a thought experiment. if you were going to try and rig michigan, you would stuff ballot boxes in detroit. you probably wouldn't control every polling place. you'd just control the important ones in the urban cores. and, she won huge in detroit.

if you were going to win anyways, despite attempts to rig the votes, you'd have to overpower that by winning big in the areas she doesn't control. and, that's what happened.

it's also consistent with the same kind of head-scratching results in massachusetts. you would think bernie would do better amongst low wage earners - both in detroit and in boston. that's urban core voters. and, it is the urban polling stations that she would rig if she were to rig anything.

so, it might seem on first glance that this dispels this idea. but, in fact, the results are completely consistent with the idea that she tried to rig it, but failed to actually do it.

which doesn't prove it's rigged. it just doesn't disprove it. the results in one state don't make the results in other states disappear, either.

i need more updated polling before i can say anything at all about the fairness of the remaining contests. but please do remain skeptical and please do remain vigilant.

08-03-2016: michigan primary reactions (and good progress in archiving)

tracks worked on in this vlog:
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/period-1

j reacts to why her own poll reading also underperformed (slightly)

i'll have to wait until the data comes in, but how did he manage to win? i'm not some kind of clairvoyant. i just read the polls, and they suggested something like clinton 52 / sanders 48 (+/-2) - a close result. what factor went wrong?

well, let's look at my logic: she was polling around 55% amongst democrats. there are going to be independents. so, take it down a few points. in math, simplicity actually generally implies a deeper understanding. if she came down even further, it must mean there were even more independents. that is: turnout must have been high, and particularly amongst independents.

ok.

but, you have to add a factor to that: turnout was lower amongst democrats than it could have been, because trump is pulling them. and, whatever the math is on independents, if trump is pulling democrats then he's pulling hillary supporters.

so, let's be clear: i hit the mark by a margin of error. but, it's not just about bernie pulling independents in. it's also about trump pulling democrats out. and, while that might be bad news in the general, and more evidence that hillary is the less electable candidate, it's a positive for bernie.

with 93% reporting...

republicans: 1,237,318 votes
democrats: 1,095,264 votes

michigan is purple, but it's largely seen as blue.

so, that's your answer: trump is pulling democrats. and, it's a reason for some pause.