Wednesday, March 9, 2016

j reacts to why her own poll reading also underperformed (slightly)

i'll have to wait until the data comes in, but how did he manage to win? i'm not some kind of clairvoyant. i just read the polls, and they suggested something like clinton 52 / sanders 48 (+/-2) - a close result. what factor went wrong?

well, let's look at my logic: she was polling around 55% amongst democrats. there are going to be independents. so, take it down a few points. in math, simplicity actually generally implies a deeper understanding. if she came down even further, it must mean there were even more independents. that is: turnout must have been high, and particularly amongst independents.

ok.

but, you have to add a factor to that: turnout was lower amongst democrats than it could have been, because trump is pulling them. and, whatever the math is on independents, if trump is pulling democrats then he's pulling hillary supporters.

so, let's be clear: i hit the mark by a margin of error. but, it's not just about bernie pulling independents in. it's also about trump pulling democrats out. and, while that might be bad news in the general, and more evidence that hillary is the less electable candidate, it's a positive for bernie.

with 93% reporting...

republicans: 1,237,318 votes
democrats: 1,095,264 votes

michigan is purple, but it's largely seen as blue.

so, that's your answer: trump is pulling democrats. and, it's a reason for some pause.