the cnn skew on this was outrageous. the way the questions were phrased on the screen, the setups, etc. but, the flip side of that is that they gave him some more space to respond - and that he responded very well. i think that the takeaway from this is going to make cnn look bad, rather than work in taking sanders down. i've never seen somebody manage to take the barrage and actually work it in his favour. and, i'd expect that this performance will give him a bump. he's earning this, and it's paying off.
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they weren't easy on her, either. and, it's not like she demonstrated a lack of insight - it's just that i don't agree with her on point after point. the healthcare bit, for example, had me cringing - even as she demonstrated a strong understanding and made her points well (i just can't believe anybody really, actually believes that markets can reduce prices). i will say this: this townhall makes it clear where they stand on the spectrum. it make the choice that much easier. and, i do expect that the bump goes to bernie. but maybe there's some middling centrist patriotism lurking under the surface, too.
also: note that rubio won in dc. that's why you hang on to him.
1) the nbc poll that puts clinton at 51 was taken from the 4th to the 10th. this is a polluted sample. but, i would suspect that sanders takes a huge lead in polling after the 8th. this poll likely overstates support for clinton by integrating data before last tuesday.
i want to be clear about what i'm doing here. i'm doing exactly the opposite of what the aggregates want to do. they want to say that you want to average polls over a longer distance, to "smooth" the data out. that works fine in some circumstances, like measuring responses to advertising (you can buy a sandwich the day of the polls, or the day after, or a month later, even). it's simply awful modelling for politics.
the aggregate sites will point to this poll as more accurate because it was taken over a longer period. but, i'm suggesting the longer period is just polluting the sample.
based on that poll alone, i would suggest a slightly better result than we saw in michigan.
2) there is another poll, with sanders ahead at 48-46 (i guess there's 6% undecided). on the one hand, this is an internet poll - and the predictive abilities of internet polls are widely variable (there is no margin of error!). on the other hand, it was conducted mar 9-10. despite not liking the methodology, this is entirely consistent with everything i'm saying.
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i don't have a good poll, but i don't want to just average them out, either. the reality is that the data for illinois actually looks better for sanders than the data for michigan did. plus, illinois is a very blue state. it is actually reasonable to predict a comfortable sanders win, if you consider that this is an open primary, the state is full of liberals and the phone polling is being done with democrats. but, the correct answer is that the data is inconclusive.
something to note, though, is that illinois will likely provide the data that is necessary to permanently throw away the racial theories of support. it's going to split on a left/moderate axis, and that will assert itself across racial lines.
ohio
we're looking at the same breakdown in the two polls - the phone poll is sampling over too long of a period, and over a defining pivot point, while the internet poll is solely after the defining event. and, sanders is doing better in the polling done solely after tuesday. there is again not a perfect poll, here, but there is reason to suggest a very close result [given that they're strictly polling democrats]. but, remember: ohio is completely purple. it doesn't have the liberal base that illinois does, and doesn't consistently lean democrat like michigan does.
florida
clinton is comfortably ahead here, and the event doesn't seem to have registered much. florida is the old folks' home of the nation, and these voters tend to be low-information and driven by routine. bernie needs to try and keep it under 60%. and, this is key - because florida is a very big state.
missouri
literally no polling. it's a purple state. i would expect it to split. north carolina
literally no polling. obama won north carolina in 2008, but obama is a conservative. so, one must expect clinton to win north carolina very comfortably.
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if he wins big in illinois, he could gain delegates on tuesday.
otherwise, he's going to be struggling to not get further behind.
but, remember: it was always about california.
i lost the last two days hitch-hiking to ann arbor (and back) to see tortoise, but i think i can get some videos up over the next 24 hours.
reviews will come up in time. i didn't take footage because i saw cameras running and assumed some would come up in better quality, so let's hope that's true.
short review: they played a lot of new material, and the new material is simply not written at the same level as the old material.