but, to be clear. a few points.

1) i don't think the pcs are collapsing. i've been arguing for months that they were never running that high in the first place, but that the inflated numbers are a relic of the process, given that the conservatives have the most dedicated base; i told you from the start that the numbers would come down as the numbers fill in. all of the polling everywhere says that conservatives of all types in canada have almost no potential to swing anybody. so, when you see these between election polls that have the conservatives at 45%, all it really means is that everybody else actually looks at evidence before they make a voting decision, rather than decide what brand they want to vote for two or three years away from making the actual choice.

the conservatives were running in the mid-30s the whole time.

2) millennial voters may have been unreliable voters when they were younger, as gen x voters and baby boomer voters were when they were younger, too. but, understand that if you were born in 1980 then you're 38 years old, now. this year should be the first batch of voters born in the twenty-first century. millennials aren't the youth vote anymore. you should expect them to start voting more reliably, now - and focus your scorn on the younger generation. but, what that means is that we may be seeing the creation of a rigid ndp base and, if that is true, the same processes would apply to the ndp that do to the conservatives, and their vote would also be inflated.

i believe that the ndp numbers are currently being inflated and that they are running in the high 20s.

3) liberals are just feeling frustrated & disenfranchised. the factors that are inflating the totals of conservatives & dippers must also be under-estimating the totals of liberals. that's zero-sum.

i think the liberals are currently running in the mid 20s.

this is about what we've got right now, then:

conservatives: 33
ndp: 29
liberals: 25
undecided: 9
greens: 4

last night is absolutely clear. no blurry moments. well paced.

although, i enjoyed the reaction from the bartender when i went to get a last beer at the very end of the night.

"yeah. right."

she just wanted to go home. understandable.

i think it was more about how well i was standing after drinking & dancing all night than anything else, it was an expression of disbelief, but you have to understand how much exercise i get anyways - i'm just kind of healthy at a sort of bionic level. if my bac spikes, it spikes. but it's a separate process than my actual ability to really effortlessly push myself all night, on pretty much any night. i can dance or bike or walk essentially at will. if i have to stop, it's going to be because my feet get sore, not because of exhaustion.

but, for the record: i had two shots of jager about 10:30, a tall can of mike's at about 11:30 and then slowly drank seven beers (by my best count) over what was in total about a 12 hour party. that's 11 drinks in 12 hours, although the drinking took part mostly over the first 9. that's not excessive by any definition, it's just a long night.

i picked the texture after party because the line-up was stacked; if you have tastes similar to mine, that was the line-up of the weekend kind of thing. i don't follow djs the way i follow rock musicians, or even electronic composers, so i'm not going to pretend i have a deeper understanding of things than i do, but the sets last night were dark and minimal and a little bit noisy - they were the proper crossover for somebody into old industrial music and the dirtier side of hardcore, trying to find an appropriate party at a house festival. the floor was a little packed at first but started to clear out nicely for the last two sets. so, the dancing was good for the last half of the night.

i stayed at the bar late to catch the billed artists, but the party largely moved to the park a little after four. i made it there eventually, and spent a few hours there before i went home. it was gospel when i left...

a fun night...

i made it home about noon, and i've been up and down, sleeping without sleeping. it's like a sauna in here; i love it. keeping me up, though. i more listened to the debate than watched it. tomorrow is an even longer day - about 20 hours of mostly straight dancing - so i'd better get ready for it by sleeping a little bit this morning.