i stand with them, unconditionally.
there is no debate.
Sunday, October 25, 2020
fwiw, i think that macron's comments were essentially correct, even if he's picking false targets, and that it's important that the free world stands with him in his churchillian struggle against extremism.
it's about time, really, that a major western leader took the right position on this.
france always falls first, and then we have to save them. will we stand with them from the start, this time? or will we fail to learn, yet again?
i think i'm overwhelmingly deciding that i'm ridiculously dehydrated :\.
the guy runs a dehumidifier upstairs and the idiot thinks it's good for his health. it's probably giving him migraines and making him sick, and it's drying me out, deeply. it's absurd, but i think it's the right answer.
so, i need to get more water, shower twice daily and potentially keep the windows open more frequently - although i'd like to avoid the latter.
but, i mean, i've pointed this out before - this may suck for a while, but if the policy of the government is to encourage religious festivities, and the result is that large numbers of older religious people die, it's a net positive for the future of the province.
so, go ahead out and worship, like lambs led to slaughter....
baaaaaaaaaa.
baaaaaaaaaaaaaaa.
given that everybody agrees that the current bump in cases is being driven by family get-togethers and religious observances, such as thanksgiving, which coincides with columbus day in canada, it's unclear why anybody would expect closing bars would make any difference.
ontario has a large south asian population, and their "diwali" festival is likely the next super-spreading event, unless the authorities take steps to shut it down - which they, of course, will not.
it's easier to just blame it on the sinners.
something else to be worried about is the potential of getting cancer in my mouth or throat (from hpv or from carcinogenic air), and while i did have weird lesions fairly often back when i was a smoker, that's entirely gone away since i quit in early 2016.
i should keep an eye on that, of course.
but, i don't have sores. i don't have bumps. i don't have lesions. it's just some weird shit on the back of my tongue, and some swollen tonsils.
ok, let's be real.
i've had almost no contact with anybody since march. the chances that i picked up strep throat at the grocery store are exceedingly remote.
but, if it's candida, the actual cause would have to either be extreme dehydration (and i've complaining about that since i moved in here) or undiagnosed diabetes (which i keep worrying about, but keep testing negative for). and those both seem obscure, as well.
so, am i left with tonsillitis as a reaction to a virus?
am i reacting to the smoke from upstairs, even? that would be more extreme than i'd expect, but i'm getting a little older.....
i know i need to swab to know, but i want to have a good reason to get swabbed.
so, i'll give it a few days...
but, if i'm getting my tonsils out, i want my ice cream up front, dammit.
feeling around my neck, my tonsils do feel a little swollen.
hrmmn.
and, the obvious question: is covid-19 known to produce complications in the tonsils, the way that other colds and flus do? is this evidence that i recently came into contact with the virus without otherwise realizing it?
you wouldn't otherwise expect a virus like covid-19 to produce symptoms that are characteristic of a bacterial infection.
the smoke has been unnoticeable in here for the last 24 hours or so (finally. i can only hope it's gone.), but i seem to have picked up strep throat, which i'm diagnosing myself with due to the white film on my tongue, which appears to be bacterial. i just can't imagine how. i haven't bummed a smoke from anybody in weeks.
i can't tell if i have a fever or not, but i otherwise feel fine.
the only other thing i can think of is that it's so dry in here that it gave me oral thrush. i was reacting pretty badly to the dry air coming from the furnace when it turned on, but you'd think that's an extreme reaction.
*shrug*.
need to drink more water...
there's a thorough update & review for the fruit bowl coming, i've just had to double back on it a few times.
i said i was going to post an update on my analysis of my own analysis, and i'm going to just use chilliwack as a case study.
i missed the forum poll, which was the only really legitimate polling done, and turned out to be the only one that was actually right. funny that.
the polls, almost all of which were online until the final days, were suggesting that the ndp was going to get upwards of 50% of the vote:
and, this is not unique - this happens in election after election, in canada. the online stuff is not polling, and it doesn't work. so, you don't want to average it out - you want to remove it and throw it in the trash. it just pollutes the sample.
but, based on the limited amount of evidence from actual polling that i could find, i deduced that:
1) the ndp vote was inflated by not counting undecideds. they will get more in the 40-45% range, and they did.
2) the liberal vote is underestimated because most of the undecideds are right-wing liberals, and most of them will come back - and most of them did. but, i pointed out that the phantom bc conservative party, which government and media doesn't want to acknowledge exists, is likely going to be the deciding factor in the election, because that's where the actual swing was - if right-wing liberals decided to vote for wilkinson in the end, the results could tighten up a lot. but, if they stay home or vote for the conservatives, those inflated results could stabilize.
3) the green vote may be underestimated if green voters decide at the last minute that the ndp is going to win for sure, anyways, so they'd might as well vote with their hearts.
i deduced that there wasn't enough data to determine if the ndp would get a minority or majority with confidence.
chilliwack
2017 results in chilliwack:
liberals - 48%
ndp - 32%
green - 17%
2013 results:
liberal 47%
ndp - 31%
conservative - 12%
green - 8%
so, we see that the results were actually fairly stable.
2020 result:
liberal - 29%
ndp - 38%
conservative - 18%
green - 10%
while the ndp are up a little - and this may be a reflection of the reduced sample size, given that older people haven't voted by mail yet - the dip in liberal support seems to be more connected to the boost in conservative support. and, this pattern plays out. the result is an ndp win in a very right-wing riding, and they'll need to be cognizant of that as they govern, if they do.
so, i seem to have nailed this.
and, we'll have to await final results to see if the ndp get a majority or not.
so, these are the ridings that could potentially flip after they count all of the votes, with the highlighted ones being seats that the ndp could potentially lose.
Electoral District boxes LIB NDP GP LBN OTHER Total
Abbotsford-Mission 97 of 98 6,711 6,605 1,784 0 2,057 17,157
Chilliwack 81 of 82 3,511 4,575 1,294 144 2,394 11,918
Chilliwack-Kent 88 of 89 5,004 5,199 1,326 239 3,842 15,610
Columbia River-Revelstoke 76 of 77 5,770 4,551 1,546 0 0 11,867
Cowichan Valley 99 of 100 3,032 7,550 8,631 0 0 19,213
Delta North 73 of 80 3,452 4,889 936 0 0 9,277
Fraser-Nicola 92 of 94 4,703 4,318 1,419 0 673 11,113
Kamloops-North Thompson 104 of 107 6,361 5,549 1,522 0 1,540 14,972
Kootenay West 33 of 87 466 2,922 1,114 0 628 5,130
Langley East 111 of 111 7,144 7,937 2,393 190 2,805 20,469
Nelson-Creston 68 of 77 2,962 4,950 4,216 297 0 12,425
Parksville-Qualicum 116 of 116 6,366 7,308 3,319 0 1,377 18,370
Richmond North Centre 71 of 71 4,523 3,557 840 0 0 8,920
Richmond-Queensborough 86 of 87 5,264 6,252 1,053 0 824 13,393
Richmond South Centre 75 of 76 4,063 4,187 0 0 0 8,250
Richmond-Steveston 84 of 84 5,866 6,462 0 0 375 12,703
Skeena 60 of 61 4,824 3,900 0 0 347 9,071
Stikine 50 of 50 1,597 2,959 0 0 1,396 5,952
Surrey-Green Timbers 61 of 62 4,456 5,589 0 0 0 10,045
Surrey-Panorama 82 of 84 6,331 7,634 0 0 329 14,294
Surrey South 98 of 99 7,945 6,728 1,630 0 0 16,303
Surrey-White Rock 109 of 109 6,840 6,111 2,495 349 1,108 16,903
Vancouver-False Creek 106 of 111 3,987 4,716 1,436 207 291 10,637
Vancouver-Langara 82 of 82 5,356 4,709 1,083 167 0 11,315
Vancouver-Point Grey 85 of 90 3,970 5,210 2,000 0 0 11,180
Vernon-Monashee 120 of 121 6,798 6,618 3,146 0 2,830 19,392
West Vancouver-Sea to Sky 105 of 106 6,363 4,287 6,992 0 0 17,642
that's 15 ridings, more than enough to justify waiting for the process to complete before declaring a winner.
now, i'm not saying that they'll be knocked down to a minority. i'm just saying that the outcome isn't clear, yet. at all.
"but the polls said that ndp voters were more likely to vote by mail!"
well, that's one of those goofy questions that you can't really poll properly, and the pollsters should know that. regardless, the people you actually expect to vote by mail are older people, and they always lean right. if you look at some of the more confusing outcomes tonight, where the ndp seem to have won in places they didn't even expect to on a lower than projected popular vote, much of it is potentially explained by older voters not having their votes counted yet. so, maybe, in the end, more ndp supporters than liberal supporters voted by mail, province wide - but i'd expect that result won't hold in places like chilliwack.
i went through chilliwack & hope on the back of a haytrack, once. this is a conservative farming town....
again: i'm not projecting results. i've been very careful to avoid projecting results in the absence of data.
but, nobody should be declaring victory yet - and nobody should be conceding, either.
and, i've stated this repeatedly, but i'll state it again: my hope was that the greens would increase their ability to hold the ndp accountable on the environment.
so, i was hoping for a minority government, where the greens continued to hold the balance of power.
and, i'm not yet willing to concede that the ndp have won a majority - and don't expect it to be decided until they count all of the votes.
i'm adding up 33 ndp elected seats and a lot more that are still too close to call.
the cbc may end up right in the end, but they're jumping the gun - their deduction is not in line with their data.
but, if you look through this, you'll see that what's happening right now is that the ndp are leading in weird places due to a boost in the conservative vote - which is what i pulled out of the undecided numbers. so, there's essentially a vote split on the right, and we'll have to see in the end if it holds or not.
i'm considering my analysis correct, at this point, and don't have a lot of corrections to make, yet. i'll take a closer look at it when they're done - at least for the night.
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