the cbc may end up right in the end, but they're jumping the gun - their deduction is not in line with their data.
but, if you look through this, you'll see that what's happening right now is that the ndp are leading in weird places due to a boost in the conservative vote - which is what i pulled out of the undecided numbers. so, there's essentially a vote split on the right, and we'll have to see in the end if it holds or not.
i'm considering my analysis correct, at this point, and don't have a lot of corrections to make, yet. i'll take a closer look at it when they're done - at least for the night.