so, these are the ridings that could potentially flip after they count all of the votes, with the highlighted ones being seats that the ndp could potentially lose.
Electoral District boxes LIB NDP GP LBN OTHER Total
Abbotsford-Mission 97 of 98 6,711 6,605 1,784 0 2,057 17,157
Chilliwack 81 of 82 3,511 4,575 1,294 144 2,394 11,918
Chilliwack-Kent 88 of 89 5,004 5,199 1,326 239 3,842 15,610
Columbia River-Revelstoke 76 of 77 5,770 4,551 1,546 0 0 11,867
Cowichan Valley 99 of 100 3,032 7,550 8,631 0 0 19,213
Delta North 73 of 80 3,452 4,889 936 0 0 9,277
Fraser-Nicola 92 of 94 4,703 4,318 1,419 0 673 11,113
Kamloops-North Thompson 104 of 107 6,361 5,549 1,522 0 1,540 14,972
Kootenay West 33 of 87 466 2,922 1,114 0 628 5,130
Langley East 111 of 111 7,144 7,937 2,393 190 2,805 20,469
Nelson-Creston 68 of 77 2,962 4,950 4,216 297 0 12,425
Parksville-Qualicum 116 of 116 6,366 7,308 3,319 0 1,377 18,370
Richmond North Centre 71 of 71 4,523 3,557 840 0 0 8,920
Richmond-Queensborough 86 of 87 5,264 6,252 1,053 0 824 13,393
Richmond South Centre 75 of 76 4,063 4,187 0 0 0 8,250
Richmond-Steveston 84 of 84 5,866 6,462 0 0 375 12,703
Skeena 60 of 61 4,824 3,900 0 0 347 9,071
Stikine 50 of 50 1,597 2,959 0 0 1,396 5,952
Surrey-Green Timbers 61 of 62 4,456 5,589 0 0 0 10,045
Surrey-Panorama 82 of 84 6,331 7,634 0 0 329 14,294
Surrey South 98 of 99 7,945 6,728 1,630 0 0 16,303
Surrey-White Rock 109 of 109 6,840 6,111 2,495 349 1,108 16,903
Vancouver-False Creek 106 of 111 3,987 4,716 1,436 207 291 10,637
Vancouver-Langara 82 of 82 5,356 4,709 1,083 167 0 11,315
Vancouver-Point Grey 85 of 90 3,970 5,210 2,000 0 0 11,180
Vernon-Monashee 120 of 121 6,798 6,618 3,146 0 2,830 19,392
West Vancouver-Sea to Sky 105 of 106 6,363 4,287 6,992 0 0 17,642
that's 15 ridings, more than enough to justify waiting for the process to complete before declaring a winner.
now, i'm not saying that they'll be knocked down to a minority. i'm just saying that the outcome isn't clear, yet. at all.
"but the polls said that ndp voters were more likely to vote by mail!"
well, that's one of those goofy questions that you can't really poll properly, and the pollsters should know that. regardless, the people you actually expect to vote by mail are older people, and they always lean right. if you look at some of the more confusing outcomes tonight, where the ndp seem to have won in places they didn't even expect to on a lower than projected popular vote, much of it is potentially explained by older voters not having their votes counted yet. so, maybe, in the end, more ndp supporters than liberal supporters voted by mail, province wide - but i'd expect that result won't hold in places like chilliwack.
i went through chilliwack & hope on the back of a haytrack, once. this is a conservative farming town....
again: i'm not projecting results. i've been very careful to avoid projecting results in the absence of data.
but, nobody should be declaring victory yet - and nobody should be conceding, either.