Monday, April 18, 2016
shit hillary said vol 33
“So we now have a chance to set a new global standard for good governance and to strengthen a global ethos of transparency and accountability. And there is no better partner to have started this effort and to be leading it than Brazil, and in particular, President Rousseff. Her commitment to openness, transparency, her fight against corruption is setting a global standard.”
at
23:51
Location:
Windsor, ON, Canada
j reacts to the dynamics in a possible three-way sanders/trump/clinton race
woah woah woah. let's take a step back, here. let's look at some true statements.
1) bernie's chances of winning the democratic nomination will probably be all but decimated tomorrow. i think he can make up more than 100 delegates in california, in the best case. i don't think he can make up more than 200. a split is not good enough. he has to win. he has to make up delegates.
2) that does not mean that bernie is obligated to suspend his campaign on the near inevitability of a loss. he has claimed that everybody should get the right to vote their conscience. who can truly argue with that?
3) the united states is not a two-party system by law. if you scroll through this page, i think you'll see more than enough of an argument that he should run outside the democratic party. some arguments:
a) closed primaries where he's probably actually winning, but where his supporters can't vote for him.
b) obvious signs of vote tampering (stuffed early ballots).
c) voter suppression tactics.
d) the distribution of the vote.
i mean, he signed this pledge. fine. has the party lived up to it's side of it? i think there's an argument that it hasn't.
4) therefore, tomorrow's vote is not necessarily definitive or final. i think he should have bailed on the democrats months ago. but, at this point, he'd might as well wait until june before he does.
tomorrow may technically close a door, but it was a trap door in the first place. i've stated repeatedly that he never really had a serious chance. so, the facade may end. but, the candidacy may not - and, i would argue, should not.
some polls would help. clinton/trump/sanders. but, i think he can split the field.
let's split the republicans into five parts:
1) evangelicals--->clinton/trump [trump is a nihilist, and clinton is an evangelical]
2) rich bastards > clinton [i think she'll steal this group outright]
3) libertarians---> sanders [i think he'll steal this group outright]
4) white working class > sanders/trump [probably a clean split]
5) fiscal conservatives > trump
it's a function of how poorly trump fits into the republican party, granted. but trump is probably looking at numbers in the 30s, regardless. in a three-way race, sanders will probably bleed enough from trump to pull him closer to 30 - and maybe even into the high 20s. i consequently think that a three-way race like this becomes sanders v clinton in most of the country, with trump falling to third place.
but, some polls would help.
--
see, this is why bernie does better than clinton against trump & cruz. & trump should be kicking himself, because he could have - and probably wanted to - try and get them. unfortunately, the party knocked him in line...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K3HwaBWx2-0
1) bernie's chances of winning the democratic nomination will probably be all but decimated tomorrow. i think he can make up more than 100 delegates in california, in the best case. i don't think he can make up more than 200. a split is not good enough. he has to win. he has to make up delegates.
2) that does not mean that bernie is obligated to suspend his campaign on the near inevitability of a loss. he has claimed that everybody should get the right to vote their conscience. who can truly argue with that?
3) the united states is not a two-party system by law. if you scroll through this page, i think you'll see more than enough of an argument that he should run outside the democratic party. some arguments:
a) closed primaries where he's probably actually winning, but where his supporters can't vote for him.
b) obvious signs of vote tampering (stuffed early ballots).
c) voter suppression tactics.
d) the distribution of the vote.
i mean, he signed this pledge. fine. has the party lived up to it's side of it? i think there's an argument that it hasn't.
4) therefore, tomorrow's vote is not necessarily definitive or final. i think he should have bailed on the democrats months ago. but, at this point, he'd might as well wait until june before he does.
tomorrow may technically close a door, but it was a trap door in the first place. i've stated repeatedly that he never really had a serious chance. so, the facade may end. but, the candidacy may not - and, i would argue, should not.
some polls would help. clinton/trump/sanders. but, i think he can split the field.
let's split the republicans into five parts:
1) evangelicals--->clinton/trump [trump is a nihilist, and clinton is an evangelical]
2) rich bastards > clinton [i think she'll steal this group outright]
3) libertarians---> sanders [i think he'll steal this group outright]
4) white working class > sanders/trump [probably a clean split]
5) fiscal conservatives > trump
it's a function of how poorly trump fits into the republican party, granted. but trump is probably looking at numbers in the 30s, regardless. in a three-way race, sanders will probably bleed enough from trump to pull him closer to 30 - and maybe even into the high 20s. i consequently think that a three-way race like this becomes sanders v clinton in most of the country, with trump falling to third place.
but, some polls would help.
--
see, this is why bernie does better than clinton against trump & cruz. & trump should be kicking himself, because he could have - and probably wanted to - try and get them. unfortunately, the party knocked him in line...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K3HwaBWx2-0
at
19:53
Location:
Windsor, ON, Canada
j reacts to the new york primary being closed
so, what is happening in new york?
well, first let us point out that the media has been horrible. sure. but, let us also point out that sanders is still drawing gigantic, multi-racial crowds. it is clear that you have an establishment buckling against a populist movement. that's clear as day to anybody that gets their news from a good source. there's consequently a conflict developing on the ground...
how can it be quantified? well, that's what the polls are for, right. now, i'm supposed to know how to read these things. but, what i've learned over the last few months is that the american polling firms do strange things with the data, and it's very difficult to know how to read into them as a result. i'm also not certain that they're honest, or that the results on the ground are fair [in fact, i'm pretty sure that some of the states were rigged]. so, instead of trying to make predictions in such a messy climate, i'm instead going to draw some attention to some possible points of error.
first, let's understand what the polls say. in most circumstances, i'll argue against taking a straight polling average. but, the race in new york is the rare circumstance where this actually works out. the reason is that it's a closed primary, and i'll come back to that. so, it kind of does approximate market research. and, rather than try and figure out which way the masses are careening, you want to balance the data out. so, yes - you'll get a few polls that are around a 10% spread +/- 4-5. then you'll get a few that suggest it's more like 15%. it balances out to around 12%. and, this is the right way to read it: the polling, right now, suggests that the race is stable and the spread is over 10%. that would imply a comfortable clinton win.
where could it go wrong? well, i've drawn heavy attention to the idea of racist modeling. when these polling companies put their numbers out, it's not a straight tally. it's adjusted to fit census results. if they bake a bias into their polling, it could come out in their projections. i've hinted at the idea that there's a strong reason to suspect this is happening. if so, the polling could be exaggerating clinton's lead with minority groups, and thereby exaggerating her lead altogether. so, there may be reason to expect a surprise.
except, not really, because it's a closed primary. now, closed primaries are not closed by some accident - they're designed to exclude the unwashed masses. which means they have a class bias baked into them. after you cancel everything out, the closed primary is actually likely to maintain clinton's lead with minorities - because it's likely to exclude less wealthy minorities, who didn't register in time. nobody will deny that clinton has a substantial lead with wealthy minorities, many of whom would probably vote republican if the party was more pluralist (because they are wealthy). we're careening towards a reality where you have a conservative party for whites (the republicans) and a conservative party for browns and blacks (the democrats). clinton is arguably an even better spokesperson for this group than obama. but, that is really about class, even if it is a consequence of racialized politics in the republican party. the rules in new york are designed so that these wealthy and usually very educated minorities get a say, because they knew to register ahead of time, while the poor minorities don't - because they didn't.
so, we need to ask the question: how many of the people at these impressively sized multi-racial rallies are going to be able to actually vote? and, i think the answer is going to be disappointingly few.
i suspect sanders may win an open primary, and that the correlations by race would break down in an open primary. but, it isn't an open primary.
and i again need to request that you stay safe on tuesday if you live in new york. there's going to be a lot of people that want to vote - for sanders - and can't. they're going to be understandably frustrated.
so, i again need to point out that the real story is the question of why new york has a closed primary. hopefully, that issue gets addressed.
clinton may not really win, or at least she might not win an open tally of the popular vote. but, you should expect her to win the official vote totals. and, probably convincingly.
well, first let us point out that the media has been horrible. sure. but, let us also point out that sanders is still drawing gigantic, multi-racial crowds. it is clear that you have an establishment buckling against a populist movement. that's clear as day to anybody that gets their news from a good source. there's consequently a conflict developing on the ground...
how can it be quantified? well, that's what the polls are for, right. now, i'm supposed to know how to read these things. but, what i've learned over the last few months is that the american polling firms do strange things with the data, and it's very difficult to know how to read into them as a result. i'm also not certain that they're honest, or that the results on the ground are fair [in fact, i'm pretty sure that some of the states were rigged]. so, instead of trying to make predictions in such a messy climate, i'm instead going to draw some attention to some possible points of error.
first, let's understand what the polls say. in most circumstances, i'll argue against taking a straight polling average. but, the race in new york is the rare circumstance where this actually works out. the reason is that it's a closed primary, and i'll come back to that. so, it kind of does approximate market research. and, rather than try and figure out which way the masses are careening, you want to balance the data out. so, yes - you'll get a few polls that are around a 10% spread +/- 4-5. then you'll get a few that suggest it's more like 15%. it balances out to around 12%. and, this is the right way to read it: the polling, right now, suggests that the race is stable and the spread is over 10%. that would imply a comfortable clinton win.
where could it go wrong? well, i've drawn heavy attention to the idea of racist modeling. when these polling companies put their numbers out, it's not a straight tally. it's adjusted to fit census results. if they bake a bias into their polling, it could come out in their projections. i've hinted at the idea that there's a strong reason to suspect this is happening. if so, the polling could be exaggerating clinton's lead with minority groups, and thereby exaggerating her lead altogether. so, there may be reason to expect a surprise.
except, not really, because it's a closed primary. now, closed primaries are not closed by some accident - they're designed to exclude the unwashed masses. which means they have a class bias baked into them. after you cancel everything out, the closed primary is actually likely to maintain clinton's lead with minorities - because it's likely to exclude less wealthy minorities, who didn't register in time. nobody will deny that clinton has a substantial lead with wealthy minorities, many of whom would probably vote republican if the party was more pluralist (because they are wealthy). we're careening towards a reality where you have a conservative party for whites (the republicans) and a conservative party for browns and blacks (the democrats). clinton is arguably an even better spokesperson for this group than obama. but, that is really about class, even if it is a consequence of racialized politics in the republican party. the rules in new york are designed so that these wealthy and usually very educated minorities get a say, because they knew to register ahead of time, while the poor minorities don't - because they didn't.
so, we need to ask the question: how many of the people at these impressively sized multi-racial rallies are going to be able to actually vote? and, i think the answer is going to be disappointingly few.
i suspect sanders may win an open primary, and that the correlations by race would break down in an open primary. but, it isn't an open primary.
and i again need to request that you stay safe on tuesday if you live in new york. there's going to be a lot of people that want to vote - for sanders - and can't. they're going to be understandably frustrated.
so, i again need to point out that the real story is the question of why new york has a closed primary. hopefully, that issue gets addressed.
clinton may not really win, or at least she might not win an open tally of the popular vote. but, you should expect her to win the official vote totals. and, probably convincingly.
at
02:14
Location:
Windsor, ON, Canada
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