i actually don't think it's the gta that's going to be key. the conservatives probably have a better shot of winning in brampton than they do in brantford, and that may actually be long term due to demographics. i'm not writing them off in brampton, i just think the numbers will be closer there at the end of the night than elsewhere.

i actually think it's going to be the 519, around the western edges of toronto. these are huge swings that your model can't pick up. mainstreet seems to have picked this up today, putting the conservatives in the 40s but competitive in toronto, suggesting the biggest swings are not in the gta but in southwestern ontario - and i have to presume he means the swath of territory that the wynne liberals managed to win in 2014 (and you can see on a map), rather than windsor or sarnia. this is the growing metropolitan area of guelph-waterloo-kitchener-cambridge-brantford. i dunno. call it west toronto or something. it's not normally considered the gta, but it maybe should start being thought of as a part of some kind of megacity centered on toronto. i hitch-hiked through there a few years ago, and it seemed to be me like i didn't really get out of the gta until i was heading towards london.

all data i can piece together seems like this is where the bulk of the swing actually is, and that it is a dramatic and (seemingly, though not really - it's just mirroring the last provincial election) unpredictable swing that you just can't pick up with what you're doing.

he also seemed to suggest the liberals were ahead in the north and the 613. but, that would be gravy - it would be the majority. it's those small cities west of toronto that win the liberals the election.

www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-election-2015-grenier-gta-oct18-1.3276166

funstuf
oh you mean where the PC volunteers where illegally tearing down the NDP and Liberal signs?? lol NO chance, anyone with a brain is voting ABC in GTA, cons are good with the all rural areas where there are very few minorities, but GTA has a lot of seats and mostly going red, bye bye con crooks and liars!

jessica murray
i'm not suggesting that the conservatives will win in brampton. i'm just pointing out that they could very well poll close to 40 in a two-way race, and they probably won't get close to that in other places where the models put them comfortably ahead.

i'm a little concerned that there are some areas in toronto that are tuning out the rest of the country, and are maybe less voting against what's happening around them and more legitimately unaware of what is really happening around them. they may be reliant on local media in their own language that has very strong conservative biases, for cultural reasons. what that suggests is a large number of ideological voters that are practically impossible to convince, and simply don't swing.

it remains to be seen how the demographics balance themselves out. we've historically had urban policies that seek to prevent the local concentration of specific minorities at such large levels, and should maybe consider dusting some of those ideas off.

but, for now, it creates the potential of a stronger conservative base than exists elsewhere in urban ontario.

we'll find out on monday night.

in terms of numbers, what i'm getting at could be summed up by suggesting that the conservatives will likely do better in brampton than they do in the province, overall; if they get 31-33 province wide, as is suggested, you should expect higher than that in brampton - mid to high 30s.

these results are only different from the consensus in quebec and bc. in both cases, ekos is polling the conservatives much higher and the liberals much lower. it happens to be that these are also the places that have three or four way races.

passive consumers need to understand that pollsters don’t just collect opinions and send them out. they modify the results to fit the census, and there’s some interpretation in the process. that could be a part of the difference you’re seeing.

i’m also not sure that the blended sample is the best idea, because of the way that undecideds are being measured. and, i’d kind of argue against unlike aggregates for the same reason. aggregate live interview with live interview, and ivr with ivr, but don’t aggregate online samples with ivr and live interviews. if the ivr is truly measuring undecideds in such a way that reduces the sample size and inflates the conservatives, and you take more ivr in the sample, than you would expect inflated conservative numbers in the end result.

it’s not enough to do the “one of these things is not like the others” skit and rule ekos out. but, i think this experiment with ivr and live interviewer is maybe pulling out a bit of a bias, and destroying the ability to adjust for it by mixing the data up. that, i think, is a methodological flaw.

www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2015/10/and-the-winner-is-we-dont-know/#comment-59737

i just want to add that the actual results of the mainstreet poll are

lib 34
con 30
ndp 19
und 10

and, once again, you see the relationship that shows up with this “dithering progressive” effect over ivr, and it’s subsequent inflation of the conservatives due to a decrease in sample space. and, it again absolutely nails the conservatives at a 30% flatline, which has been true for months and months.

--

angus reid is also an online panel.

the shy tory effect is bunk. but, we seem to be seeing a “dithering progressive” effect in the ivrs – it is absolutely consistent.

i can just imagine my physics profs trying to understand deerhoof.

"panda...panda..panda....pan...what is this, a poisson distribution?"

there's some tonal drones back there; there was an opportunity for some weird harmonies.

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCinQSeEtF0vSN1XVhQGfwKA

so, i'm launching a vlog...

in fact, i wish i had launched this three or four years ago. it could have caught me hitch-hiking, or maybe caught a few things from occupy.

vlogs are largely trivial. it's what a vlog is. sometimes, you'll have to watch me make spaghetti or something. but, i go for long walks, too - routinely. not just in windsor, but also in detroit. concerts. recording. overall, i'm probably considerably more exciting than you or most people you know are, even if i'm essentially always by myself.

what i'm thinking is that it might act as a reasonable front-end for the music production. i was using the comment system to great effect for a while, but youtube then went and changed the way the system works in such a way that it almost seems designed to explicitly prevent me from doing what i was doing. they sell ads, right? if i'm using the comment system for free advertising, i'm breaking their model. so, they've done several things - i could list 5 or 6 - to make it harder for people like me to do what i was doing. i got a little touch of exposure, anyways - enough to make me think restrategizing is worthwhile. but, it's clear that they've broken what i was doing. they've crashed me from 200 hits/day to 10 hits/day.

this seems to be a better advertising strategy for right now. we'll see how it goes.

i bought a $50 camera from best buy. it should be here in five or six days. expect this to launch saturday; i'll be posting daily updates here, as well.

yeah.

i just ordered this cheap little guy:

i'd normally go and pick it up because shipping is half the price of the object, but this looks like it's last gen - that they're trying to get rid of it, really - and so it's free shipping.

the key point is it's cheap. but, it's also waterproof, which is....i'm not going to go swimming with it, but i don't want to worry about it in the rain, either.

the actual truth is that i'm really not well-versed in the language of megapixels and digital video. i'm going to guess that the differences in video quality past a certain point are largely trivial. and, you know, i don't know how long i'm going to do this for. i'm not expecting pristine quality, but i'm maybe not requiring it just quite yet, either. i'm sure it'll be fine - or better than fine, really.

i've got plenty of rechargeable batteries, although i'll have to experiment with how much power the device uses. i'll have to figure out how much storage i'm going to need for an average ten hour adventure and get the right sized sd card, as well. i suspect my old 2 gb card for pictures is too small.

the actual reality is that this device was probably ten times the price ten years ago. this is how i operate with technology - i wait, i get the last gen when it's falling into obsolescence and then i actually use it to it's potential. i'm lucky enough to be living through the period where technology is plateauing, allowing for what is truly high end technology to sell for basically nothing, in order to drive the market. i actually probably fluked out on that.

should be here by friday.

yeah. decided. if i can find a usable camera for under $100.

i'm thinking about starting a vlog.

all the popular vlogs are families. it's great and everything, from a certain perspective, i guess. i think i have something a bit more unique to offer - single transgender canadian that is a total loner and is right on the us border and that is often on foot, heads to concerts, etc.

i guess a lot of it is going to be kind of trivial, but it's what a vlog is, right? a lot of it it's going to be me walking around by myself and talking into the mic.

i think there's some other upsides to it. i would be comfortable monetizing a vlog channel, for example - i won't monetize the music channel. it could maybe create exposure for the music, and possibly even income.

i'm sort of wishing i'd vlogged some of the more erratic moments of the last three or four years. hitch-hiking from ottawa to windsor, through toronto, would be great to have on tape; i tried to document it through writing, but it only gets you so far. and i'm sure i'll have more than a few more crazy moments.

in fact, i suspect halloween could be a bit of a ride, with deafhaven early and probably hitting a rave later. it's going to depend on the weather, though - i'm not floating around detroit all night if it's snowing.

the error he's making is thinking that harper is going to be replaced by a moderate. harper probably actually *will* step down mid mandate - he's suggested as much.

but, all evidence suggests that jason kenney is the overwhelming favourite to replace him, and he makes harper seem downright liberal, in comparison. voting for the party is going to throw us into a war over abortion and capital punishment.

i know that's not what he wants. he's just lost in a fantasy reality, where some old tory can mount a comeback, get the reformers under control and sail back towards the policies of clark & mulroney.

first, it's clear that the neither the numbers nor the candidates exist. who is his phantom candidate? the harris tories that were brought on are really just as awful. is he going to bring jean charest back? or joe clark, himself? danny williams? there's no obvious candidate.

but, if it somehow happens? then the west starts another party. there's been rumbling for years that harper is too left wing. i'm not making that up.

he's disenfranchised. he's not a liberal, and doesn't want to be. that's fine. i'm not a liberal, and don't want to be either - although i'm on the other side of the spectrum. i get that. i get not wanting to vote for the bloody liberals, yet again, and taking the awful with the mediocre because there's not a better choice. but what he's projecting doesn't exist.

the ndp tried to park themselves in this space, but it didn't get the traction. if they stay there (and i hope they don't...), it might get some traction in the next election.

for now, what it reflects is the disenfranchisement of old tory canada, and it's difficulty coming to terms with what the real options are.

www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-election-2015-globe-harper-endorsement-reaction-1.3275224

peppypoo
The PM is not going anyway, he will win a majority government hands down. The National press finally has woken from their dreams and has now seen that Justin & the liberal party are the same old rotten corrupt party they have always been, new face same old bunch of hacks running it.

jessica murray
right.

listen: they're all corrupt.

people need to vote on policies, and expect corruption from all of them.

Alan Cane
My conclusion? Liberal voters are weak.

jessica murray
CONSERVATIVE VOTERS STRONG LIKE BEAR.

www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-election-2015-grenier-polls-oct16-1.3273313

we've been brainwashed by conservative "Strong Leader" propaganda for so long that we've forgotten that we live in a parliamentary system, where the prime minister is meant to be first amongst equals.

i'm personally very excited about the potential of devolution of power out of the prime minister's office and back where it belongs: in cabinet.

the prime minister is not meant to be an authoritarian leader. the prime minister is meant to be a dignitary - a figurehead. a pretty face to rile up the masses, and allow a party to govern.

it's about time. and i hope to the god i don't believe in that this is the last we ever hear of "Strong Leadership".

www.huffingtonpost.ca/g-elijah-dann/justin-isnt-ready_b_8288558.html

"Right now, there are five Canadians working for every retiree and that's going to fall by almost half to 2.7 by 2030. "

and, if you look at net wealth, you see that the average baby boomer is worth two to three times that of the average gen xer.

the reality is that the boomers have all the wealth. part of understanding the generational shift is understanding the shifts in wealth. the image of the impoverished pensioner that developed in the 80s and 90s was largely a consequence of the boomers taking over their parents' wealth, and then not giving any back; now, when they reach that age themselves, they will hoard it as long as they can, and refuse to pass it down.

the way to care for the boomers is to tax the boomers. tobin taxes are probably the best option. and, they should really remove tax breaks like income splitting, too. when you look at hard numbers with a sober mindset, you'll see that there really isn't a problem at all - except that they're not paying their share, and truly never have.

www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/10/13/national-seniors-strategy-canada-election-eldercare_n_8260078.html