it is andrea horwath that will make ontario great again, if that's what your idea of great is - even if most voters don't know it.

it is doug ford that represents the future of the right, in a multicultural interfaith coalition against secular liberalism - even if he doesn't fully realize it.

and, it is kathleen wynne that represents continuing the forces of progress, secularization and liberalism - even if she seems intent on distracting you from it.

the reality is that if you want bill davis back then horwath is your ticket - and if there's any truth in the idea that ford (who, rather, represents new conservatives, most of them brown) makes horvath look better, this is why.

but, if you'd like to move forwards, the liberals are the most progressive choice.

i've been clear that i see the ndp as the more fiscally conservative party, which is a fact-based analysis, and that i interpret the liberals as existing further left - not because the liberals are raving socialists, but because the ndp is really a moderate old-tory style conservative party, leaving the centrist liberals as the best thing we've got.

just look at the media narrative.

they're constantly smearing and ripping wynne apart, but they actually tend to cover horwath pretty favourably. you'll even see ndp strategists posting in the sun - fairly frequently. why is that, do you think?

unfortunately, a strong ndp showing will probably just split the vote and elect ford in a landslide.

wynne needs to start hitting horwath, and stop copying her.

the real problem for wynne right now is that the ndp do appear to be strengthening, finally. and, why wouldn't they be, given that wynne has essentially endorsed them?

the narrative is that the gap has closed, or that this is an outlier poll.

my analysis is that this is actually consistent with what reliable polling has suggested they've been at the whole time.

however.

forum is sketchy, and i don't know why. they fluctuate all over the place - sometimes they're dead on, and sometimes they're completely wrong. so, pointing out that this is about what i thought isn't that relieving given that we're talking about forum.

the same thing happened in the last election. the tory media pumped out all of this panel analysis - which is more like a focus group than a poll - claiming the liberals didn't have a chance. they then mislabelled these things as "polls". this was designed to frame the narrative around a certain liberal loss, to influence public opinion in their favour. but, the reliable polling was...reliably close...for pretty much the whole campaign.

then, when the liberals won a majority, everybody claimed they were shocked. but, they shouldn't have been, at all - it was what the actual polls said the whole time.

if decided voters are putting the conservatives around 36-37%, then they're likely running around 32-33, and the liberals have a better than decent chance - not because the budget has saved the day, but because her unpopularity was always exaggerated in the first place.

but, i would like to see more reliable polling, please.

http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/6db584c0-cdaf-446b-b79a-6c7d54cb6c4bOntario%20budget.pdf