what if they stay shut down in toronto and los angeles and see a rapid ramp up, anyways?
well, that's what i think we're about to see.
and, we'll all have to learn the right lessons from that.
Tuesday, April 28, 2020
i'm going to repeat myself a little, to clarify the point i'm making.
this is a jpg of an earlier image i posted, scrawled over slightly in a javascript clone of microsoft's paint.
new york is bigger and more densely populated than anywhere else on this continent, so the numbers in new york will inevitably be bigger than anywhere else. so, we can scratch the numbers out, along with the dates. it's the shape of the curve you want to look at...
we have been getting mixed messages about where we are on this curve in places like toronto and los angeles, with some suggestions that we are passing the peak. that's where the green arrow points.
however, i think these suggestions are past the point of optimistic and are rather just flat out delusional. deaths are piling up in both of these places, at higher rates, not lower rates. lower case counts are probably better explained in both jurisdictions by under-testing than they are by decreasing transmission rates.
further, it would seem as though the introduction of the virus into new york was very, very early - which is why it peaked very, very early, relative to other jurisdictions. toronto is probably not days behind new york, as the green arrow would suggest, but weeks - or even months.
rather, i think we're in the part of the curve that the red arrow points to.
we'll see who is right over the next seven to ten days or so.
my track record, so far, has been pretty good...but it's your prerogative as to what you should believe and what you shouldn't. don't take me or anybody else on authority. what do you think, based on the evidence presented to you?
if toronto and los angeles are where the red arrow points, it would mean that cities like calgary and winnipeg are at an even earlier stage. they may not peak in calgary until july. i suspect that detroit and montreal are both further along, but are not at the peak quite yet. i got very sick in detroit in early december....
so, what does that mean for re-opening?
first, you have to realize that it means that much of the country shut down too early, and is now talking about reopening before they peak. is that potentially catastrophic? is it worse than staying shut down until the fall?
see, i'm not yet sold on the efficacy of any of these measures, so i'm not yet sold on the idea that any of these measures have made any difference, or that staying shut down will reduce transmission, much. it's easy to say "this is working", but we don't know that, yet.
if they ease up in toronto and see a spike in cases, they may very well blame it on easing up too early and call it a "second wave". but, i need to insist on rigour, here - there's no convincing evidence of a peak, and, rather, quite a bit of evidence to the contrary. that "second wave" may actually be the initial wave cresting.
i would favour re-opening, with specific measures taken to protect the weak. but, there's no clearly correct answer at this point, and the responses need to be strictly regional to account for it.
this is a jpg of an earlier image i posted, scrawled over slightly in a javascript clone of microsoft's paint.
new york is bigger and more densely populated than anywhere else on this continent, so the numbers in new york will inevitably be bigger than anywhere else. so, we can scratch the numbers out, along with the dates. it's the shape of the curve you want to look at...
we have been getting mixed messages about where we are on this curve in places like toronto and los angeles, with some suggestions that we are passing the peak. that's where the green arrow points.
however, i think these suggestions are past the point of optimistic and are rather just flat out delusional. deaths are piling up in both of these places, at higher rates, not lower rates. lower case counts are probably better explained in both jurisdictions by under-testing than they are by decreasing transmission rates.
further, it would seem as though the introduction of the virus into new york was very, very early - which is why it peaked very, very early, relative to other jurisdictions. toronto is probably not days behind new york, as the green arrow would suggest, but weeks - or even months.
rather, i think we're in the part of the curve that the red arrow points to.
we'll see who is right over the next seven to ten days or so.
my track record, so far, has been pretty good...but it's your prerogative as to what you should believe and what you shouldn't. don't take me or anybody else on authority. what do you think, based on the evidence presented to you?
if toronto and los angeles are where the red arrow points, it would mean that cities like calgary and winnipeg are at an even earlier stage. they may not peak in calgary until july. i suspect that detroit and montreal are both further along, but are not at the peak quite yet. i got very sick in detroit in early december....
so, what does that mean for re-opening?
first, you have to realize that it means that much of the country shut down too early, and is now talking about reopening before they peak. is that potentially catastrophic? is it worse than staying shut down until the fall?
see, i'm not yet sold on the efficacy of any of these measures, so i'm not yet sold on the idea that any of these measures have made any difference, or that staying shut down will reduce transmission, much. it's easy to say "this is working", but we don't know that, yet.
if they ease up in toronto and see a spike in cases, they may very well blame it on easing up too early and call it a "second wave". but, i need to insist on rigour, here - there's no convincing evidence of a peak, and, rather, quite a bit of evidence to the contrary. that "second wave" may actually be the initial wave cresting.
i would favour re-opening, with specific measures taken to protect the weak. but, there's no clearly correct answer at this point, and the responses need to be strictly regional to account for it.
my reaction to the modeling update in canada is that they're still over-estimating the mortality rate by about a factor of 10, despite apparently having roughly halved it. i'm not going to repeat myself.
i'd guess around 2-3% of the population is already infected, but that is national, and a bad calculation, conceptually - it would be lower than that in areas like manitoba or saskatchewan, and higher than that in the 401 corridor. as mentioned, off the cuff calculations suggest that the gta could be nearing 20%, even as swift current is still less than 1%.
as the nature of how this disease spreads is inherently local, it's probably a bad idea to rely on federal modeling, and i'm not really going to blame the feds for bad modelling - asking them to do this is actually really the wrong approach. you don't even really want to even look at provincial models, except maybe in small provinces like pei. the six major provinces in this country are each geographically equivalent to the order of 10-15 different states, and the low population density just exacerbates the point. you really want to look specifically at cities, and metropolitan areas.
there are areas of canada that are so remote and so sparsely populated, that they might not have serious epidemics at all and, if they do, may only see first waves in the fall. even a city like thunder bay, which is a substantive population centre, is unlikely to be experiencing much through traffic of the sort that spreads disease.
it's cities like toronto, montreal, calgary and vancouver (as well as border cities like windsor and niagara falls) that are potentially moving into the upswing of the curve over this week and the next, and that you shouldn't be expecting to peak for quite a while, still.
but, the basic analysis is that when you take diverse data sets and combine them too much, you water them down, and just create a worthless mess. that's what the updated federal models are doing - but that's all they ever could do. rather, you need to separate the data very carefully and look at things hyper-locally....
so, if i tell you it's propaganda, you should realize that it's intended to be.
i'd guess around 2-3% of the population is already infected, but that is national, and a bad calculation, conceptually - it would be lower than that in areas like manitoba or saskatchewan, and higher than that in the 401 corridor. as mentioned, off the cuff calculations suggest that the gta could be nearing 20%, even as swift current is still less than 1%.
as the nature of how this disease spreads is inherently local, it's probably a bad idea to rely on federal modeling, and i'm not really going to blame the feds for bad modelling - asking them to do this is actually really the wrong approach. you don't even really want to even look at provincial models, except maybe in small provinces like pei. the six major provinces in this country are each geographically equivalent to the order of 10-15 different states, and the low population density just exacerbates the point. you really want to look specifically at cities, and metropolitan areas.
there are areas of canada that are so remote and so sparsely populated, that they might not have serious epidemics at all and, if they do, may only see first waves in the fall. even a city like thunder bay, which is a substantive population centre, is unlikely to be experiencing much through traffic of the sort that spreads disease.
it's cities like toronto, montreal, calgary and vancouver (as well as border cities like windsor and niagara falls) that are potentially moving into the upswing of the curve over this week and the next, and that you shouldn't be expecting to peak for quite a while, still.
but, the basic analysis is that when you take diverse data sets and combine them too much, you water them down, and just create a worthless mess. that's what the updated federal models are doing - but that's all they ever could do. rather, you need to separate the data very carefully and look at things hyper-locally....
so, if i tell you it's propaganda, you should realize that it's intended to be.
he says he was being "sarcastic", which is....listen, everybody's known for years that americans do not understand irony.
he should have used the word facetious, instead. it's at least an explanation. i'll cite occam's razor on this.
so, do you blame jim jones for the massacre? the idiots willingly drank it...
what is the opposite hypothesis - that we shouldn't question the president? that we should just shut up and do what he says, and blame him if he he's wrong?
you can keep your bacon cheeseburgers with french fries under the bun. but, that would be the end of the american revolution, wouldn't it?
he's right: you need to take responsibility for your own actions. the absurdity of the scenario is just demonstrative of the point....
he should have used the word facetious, instead. it's at least an explanation. i'll cite occam's razor on this.
so, do you blame jim jones for the massacre? the idiots willingly drank it...
what is the opposite hypothesis - that we shouldn't question the president? that we should just shut up and do what he says, and blame him if he he's wrong?
you can keep your bacon cheeseburgers with french fries under the bun. but, that would be the end of the american revolution, wouldn't it?
he's right: you need to take responsibility for your own actions. the absurdity of the scenario is just demonstrative of the point....
yeah.
i think we need a darwin award for this one, really.
personally, i was thinking about injecting lysol, but where am i going to find a needle when everything is under lockdown?
https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/trump-said-he-takes-no-responsibility-for-any-spike-in-people-using-disinfectants-improperly-1.4914851
i think we need a darwin award for this one, really.
personally, i was thinking about injecting lysol, but where am i going to find a needle when everything is under lockdown?
https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/trump-said-he-takes-no-responsibility-for-any-spike-in-people-using-disinfectants-improperly-1.4914851
This marks the lowest number of patients reported in a single day since April 13, but the highest death count since the province began tracking cases daily earlier this year.
well, what does that tell you about testing loads?
we're going to end up with a 20% death rate due to undertesting...and it's not an accident....
let's hope it doesn't get too awful this week.
but, you need to brace for the reality that it probably will.
https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/ontario-confirms-57-more-deaths-sees-decrease-in-new-covid-19-cases-for-3rd-straight-day-1.4913266
well, what does that tell you about testing loads?
we're going to end up with a 20% death rate due to undertesting...and it's not an accident....
let's hope it doesn't get too awful this week.
but, you need to brace for the reality that it probably will.
https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/ontario-confirms-57-more-deaths-sees-decrease-in-new-covid-19-cases-for-3rd-straight-day-1.4913266
so, these were the re-releases from jan, 2014 that i'm working on, now:
1) the liquify single, newly split off from inrimake (see entry 3). this is now inri031. this is dated to the summer of 1999. it was remastered in 2017.
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/liquify-ep
2) the book it! single, newly split off from inridiculous (see entry 4). this is now inri034. this is dated to late 1999.
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/book-it-single
3) the newly expanded and finalized inrimake, without the liquify single (entry 1), which is download only. this is a covers & remixes collection, entirely unauthorized. it's now inri032. this is dated to late 1999, but some of the material was from 1998.
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/inrimake-covers-lp-2
4) my third official record, inridiculous, was uploaded without modification, except to strip out the last track into the book it! single (entry 2). this is now inri033. i did not even remaster this record. this is dated to late 1999, but some of the material was from as far back as 1996.
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/inridiculous
5) the inricycled b compilation was initially released in parallel to inricycled a as a way to salvage material from the 1997-1999 period that i thought was otherwise unworkable. when i realized in 2015 that i could actually remaster this material from tape, this compilation was deleted from my discography by appending it to the inrijected collection, inri022. i suppose the compilation dates to jan, 2014, even if the material is raided from 1996-1999.
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/track/inricycled-b
6) the let freedom ring single, newly created from a discarded remix of a track on deny everything (see entry 11) that included martin luther king and doonesbury samples. this is now inri036. this is dated to late 1999 and early 2000. it was updated in 2017.
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/let-freedom-ring-ep
7) the first ever release of the full curious george suite in it's original form, which was thought lost until it was found later in the year. this is dated to the spring of 2000. it is now inri037.
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/the-curious-george-suite-ep
8) the ignorance is bliss single, with a comprehensive exploration of remixes of the track over the period of 2000-2014. the track was first written in 2000, but the lead track at this time was recreated from source in early 2014. it was updated with a final lead mix in 2017. this is inri038.
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/ignorance-is-bliss-ep-single
9) my fourth symphony, released in final standalone form as the acidosis ep, for the first time. this recording was created in the summer of 2000 and has not been modified since. this is inri039.
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/acidosis-ep
10) i also had to split off a separate curious george single, as the sample version did not exist until late 2000 and neither makes sense in the context of the suite, nor in the context of the record (now without any samples). this is a comprehensive collection of remixes created after 2000. this is inri040.
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/curious-george-single
11) my fourth official record, deny everything, was initially created near the end of 2000 out of material created since late 1999. this record was re-released several times between 2000 and 2014; this is the final version, void of all vocal samples, except the star trek sample in gravity's rainbow. this is inri041.
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/deny-everything-lp
12) my truncated experimental guitar experiment, an ep called j's adventures in guitarland, was one of the first things i uploaded to bandcamp back in 2010. it was re-released without further modification at this time. these are renaissance guitar pieces that i recorded in 2001. this is inri045.
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/js-adventures-in-guitarland-ep
1) the liquify single, newly split off from inrimake (see entry 3). this is now inri031. this is dated to the summer of 1999. it was remastered in 2017.
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/liquify-ep
2) the book it! single, newly split off from inridiculous (see entry 4). this is now inri034. this is dated to late 1999.
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/book-it-single
3) the newly expanded and finalized inrimake, without the liquify single (entry 1), which is download only. this is a covers & remixes collection, entirely unauthorized. it's now inri032. this is dated to late 1999, but some of the material was from 1998.
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/inrimake-covers-lp-2
4) my third official record, inridiculous, was uploaded without modification, except to strip out the last track into the book it! single (entry 2). this is now inri033. i did not even remaster this record. this is dated to late 1999, but some of the material was from as far back as 1996.
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/inridiculous
5) the inricycled b compilation was initially released in parallel to inricycled a as a way to salvage material from the 1997-1999 period that i thought was otherwise unworkable. when i realized in 2015 that i could actually remaster this material from tape, this compilation was deleted from my discography by appending it to the inrijected collection, inri022. i suppose the compilation dates to jan, 2014, even if the material is raided from 1996-1999.
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/track/inricycled-b
6) the let freedom ring single, newly created from a discarded remix of a track on deny everything (see entry 11) that included martin luther king and doonesbury samples. this is now inri036. this is dated to late 1999 and early 2000. it was updated in 2017.
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/let-freedom-ring-ep
7) the first ever release of the full curious george suite in it's original form, which was thought lost until it was found later in the year. this is dated to the spring of 2000. it is now inri037.
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/the-curious-george-suite-ep
8) the ignorance is bliss single, with a comprehensive exploration of remixes of the track over the period of 2000-2014. the track was first written in 2000, but the lead track at this time was recreated from source in early 2014. it was updated with a final lead mix in 2017. this is inri038.
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/ignorance-is-bliss-ep-single
9) my fourth symphony, released in final standalone form as the acidosis ep, for the first time. this recording was created in the summer of 2000 and has not been modified since. this is inri039.
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/acidosis-ep
10) i also had to split off a separate curious george single, as the sample version did not exist until late 2000 and neither makes sense in the context of the suite, nor in the context of the record (now without any samples). this is a comprehensive collection of remixes created after 2000. this is inri040.
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/curious-george-single
11) my fourth official record, deny everything, was initially created near the end of 2000 out of material created since late 1999. this record was re-released several times between 2000 and 2014; this is the final version, void of all vocal samples, except the star trek sample in gravity's rainbow. this is inri041.
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/deny-everything-lp
12) my truncated experimental guitar experiment, an ep called j's adventures in guitarland, was one of the first things i uploaded to bandcamp back in 2010. it was re-released without further modification at this time. these are renaissance guitar pieces that i recorded in 2001. this is inri045.
https://jasonparent.bandcamp.com/album/js-adventures-in-guitarland-ep
...which means that i'm also finally ready to build the master document for january.
well, if i can recalibrate to understand what i was actually doing, anyways.
this is going to be tricky because i'm splitting tasks between the chromebook, which is online, and the pc, which is not. again: i don't connect my pcs to the internet at all. it's just not safe.
it's just going to mean an extra step in compiling....
well, if i can recalibrate to understand what i was actually doing, anyways.
this is going to be tricky because i'm splitting tasks between the chromebook, which is online, and the pc, which is not. again: i don't connect my pcs to the internet at all. it's just not safe.
it's just going to mean an extra step in compiling....
ok.
i've eaten and showered and tried to drink some coffee, but i'm oddly still sleepier than i should be. more coffee. more coffee. more....
it's getting better, i think.
i did try a few more versions of chrome on the 90s laptop as a backup, and it just spun out on me, indicating i'm missing some kind of internal files. that means that, if it turns out to be unworkable after all, i'll have to go to the next level of complexity in the image. i might be missing some directx files or something...
it's somehow the end of april already, so the next thing to do is build the list of shows that i can't go to in may - which should be shorter than usual, for obvious reasons.
i've eaten and showered and tried to drink some coffee, but i'm oddly still sleepier than i should be. more coffee. more coffee. more....
it's getting better, i think.
i did try a few more versions of chrome on the 90s laptop as a backup, and it just spun out on me, indicating i'm missing some kind of internal files. that means that, if it turns out to be unworkable after all, i'll have to go to the next level of complexity in the image. i might be missing some directx files or something...
it's somehow the end of april already, so the next thing to do is build the list of shows that i can't go to in may - which should be shorter than usual, for obvious reasons.
the who has apparently quietly walked back it's outlandish claims that there's no evidence that the presence of antibodies suggests immunity.
expect the associated retractions to be buried on page 57 of the new york times.
maybe you might require such a retraction before you believe it. but, any political leader that fell for that should be embarrassed, and any public health expert that fell for it should resign.
expect the associated retractions to be buried on page 57 of the new york times.
maybe you might require such a retraction before you believe it. but, any political leader that fell for that should be embarrassed, and any public health expert that fell for it should resign.
they are in some trouble, here.
they've borderline ruined the country trying to shut down a virus that's almost as contagious as the measles, and roughly as deadly as the flu.
so, they've got a major catastrophe of their own making on their hands.
what we know of this government is that they'll spin doctor everything they can until they can't get away with it anymore, so expect massive levels of face-saving bullshit for months.
and, i'll do what i can to cut through it and draw attention to what the actual science actually says.
they've borderline ruined the country trying to shut down a virus that's almost as contagious as the measles, and roughly as deadly as the flu.
so, they've got a major catastrophe of their own making on their hands.
what we know of this government is that they'll spin doctor everything they can until they can't get away with it anymore, so expect massive levels of face-saving bullshit for months.
and, i'll do what i can to cut through it and draw attention to what the actual science actually says.
on one side, you have a slew of peer-reviewed papers and a developing scientific consensus.
on the other side, you have the government of canada, as led by a trust fund kid and a couple of truly amateur spin doctors.
which of these two options exists in an alternative reality?
the scientific consensus? or the government?
on the other side, you have the government of canada, as led by a trust fund kid and a couple of truly amateur spin doctors.
which of these two options exists in an alternative reality?
the scientific consensus? or the government?
i have posted numerous peer-reviewed or pre-print studies that draw attention to the increased contagiousness and decreased mortality of the disease.
the government needs to accept this data and adjust to it, not pretend it's an "alternative theory".
i mean, alternative to what? the government models? lol.
it's the government that's in an alternative reality, but that's the status quo, isn't it?
the government needs to accept this data and adjust to it, not pretend it's an "alternative theory".
i mean, alternative to what? the government models? lol.
it's the government that's in an alternative reality, but that's the status quo, isn't it?
the scientific consensus right now is that there are very high infection rates in most places (certainly much higher than reported), and this is variable on geography and connectivity. so, toronto would have much higher infection rates than moose jaw or swift current - for now.
how much higher? that's what we don't know yet.
we need to do antibody testing to put proper bounds on this, but the consensus is that it is many orders of magnitude greater than has been tested for directly, or ever could be - 50x, 80x, 100x.
certainly, 10% would be a lower bound for cities right now, based on data from sewage. but, just based on the death rate in ontario, which is about 900, infection rates around 20% are very easy to calculate with off the cuff calculations. this is the consensus opinion, and has been from the start, regardless of what your twitter feed says.
how much higher? that's what we don't know yet.
we need to do antibody testing to put proper bounds on this, but the consensus is that it is many orders of magnitude greater than has been tested for directly, or ever could be - 50x, 80x, 100x.
certainly, 10% would be a lower bound for cities right now, based on data from sewage. but, just based on the death rate in ontario, which is about 900, infection rates around 20% are very easy to calculate with off the cuff calculations. this is the consensus opinion, and has been from the start, regardless of what your twitter feed says.
am i a reliable source?
well, it depends on what i'm citing, doesn't it?
i think i tend to base my analysis and deduction on fairly reliable evidence, but i'll leave it up to you to work that out.
you'd be daft to ever, ever believe a politician, though - they are the absolute worst source of information out there.
well, it depends on what i'm citing, doesn't it?
i think i tend to base my analysis and deduction on fairly reliable evidence, but i'll leave it up to you to work that out.
you'd be daft to ever, ever believe a politician, though - they are the absolute worst source of information out there.
every day, more and more science is being published that debunks the ridiculous narrative put forward by our governments - a narrative that educated people knew from the start was tentative at best, and in truth clearly outlandish.
they can't continue along this path very much longer, before they fall into the realm of conspiracy theory.
we've seen the likes of chrystia freeland do this before, with counter-factual narratives about venezuela, as one example.
we need to stay vigilant, here.
we need to stay skeptical.
the science in the journals takes precedent over the narratives by the media and government, or viral memes on social media. let's not forget that, as they increasingly diverge, and our governments increasingly fall into nonsense-based delusions.
they can't continue along this path very much longer, before they fall into the realm of conspiracy theory.
we've seen the likes of chrystia freeland do this before, with counter-factual narratives about venezuela, as one example.
we need to stay vigilant, here.
we need to stay skeptical.
the science in the journals takes precedent over the narratives by the media and government, or viral memes on social media. let's not forget that, as they increasingly diverge, and our governments increasingly fall into nonsense-based delusions.
however, very high infection rates - over 20% - are not an "alternate theory". that's what the science actually says, and has said all along.
rather, it's this idea being spread in the media that there are very low infection rates, along with the efficacy of social distancing and "flattening the curve", that are an "alternative theory" that is not aligned with the facts or with the scientific consensus.
science is not worked out on msnbc, it's worked out in peer-reviewed journals - and the latter has not upheld the narrative in the former.
rather, it's this idea being spread in the media that there are very low infection rates, along with the efficacy of social distancing and "flattening the curve", that are an "alternative theory" that is not aligned with the facts or with the scientific consensus.
science is not worked out on msnbc, it's worked out in peer-reviewed journals - and the latter has not upheld the narrative in the former.
saskatchewan has not seen the kind of numbers yet that would be reflective of widespread infection and immunity.
in north america, the only place where that seems to be true at this point are a handful of major cities that include new york for certain, and potentially detroit. it is likely far more widespread in europe.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/u-of-r-biology-prof-draws-ire-of-sask-scientists-1.5541748
in north america, the only place where that seems to be true at this point are a handful of major cities that include new york for certain, and potentially detroit. it is likely far more widespread in europe.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/u-of-r-biology-prof-draws-ire-of-sask-scientists-1.5541748
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