Tuesday, August 26, 2025

lavrov has been relatively clear about why a meeting between putin and zelensky cannot happen, and why putin sought a meeting with trump, and why zelensky would need to meet with lower level officials instead of with putin directly. this is not being reported because it's not understood.

in the old language of international law - and putin is an old timey conservative, like a disraeli or a churchill, although this is even older than that - dignitaries need to meet at the proper levels. this is actually why the american presidents, before trump. wouldn't meet with putin. they were spitting this back in his face.

emperors meet emperors
kings meet kings.
governors meet governors.
mayors meet mayors.
diplomats meet diplomats.

putin, as an emperor, demanded to meet with an equivalent dignitary in the west, namely the president of the united states. obama and biden both responded by refusing to meet with putin, in an attempt to enforce the idea that russia and the united states are not at equivalent levels, that russia is a subservient state and america is the hegemon. putin could meet with john kerry, or anthony blinken. the russians rejected this as inappropriate.

putin, as emperor, could not possibly meet with zelensky, who is at best a governor and perhaps merely a mayor. zelensky would need to meet with an undersecretary below lavrov. that would properly enforce zelensky's status.

zelensky, by demanding to meet with putin, is essentially being uppity.

the russians won't tolerate that. zelensky must meet with his equals, at a lower level of function, as is the convention in the lost world of hierarchy that the russians continue to exist in, and which the rest of the world barely remembers or understands.

there was no possibility of this ever happening, and trump's insistence on it was either ignorance or dishonesty.
when the slavs fought wars against the tatars and other muslims, they were literally fighting for their freedom.

and they won.

it's a feel good story.
fwiw, the indigenous people of the crimean peninsula were a proto-iranic (proto-slavic) group that the greeks called the tauri, three proto-iranian groups called cimmerians, scythians and sarmatians, in sequence, and probably peasant slavic groups first identified by herodotus as scythian farmers. slavic is a weird language. it is a satem language, making it more similar to iranian than to german in some ways. herodotus indicates the ukraine had a peasant class of farmers and a ruling class of mounted warriors and they were slightly different ethnic groups. it has long been thought that the slavs were there the whole time, as the underclass to the iranians, but that it was not well recorded, except by herodotus. the cimmerians are the earliest known group from the crimean area, as recorded in contact with early semitic texts, but when the greeks showed up and started building settlements, the people they met, also iranians, were named as taurii. they did not know that the region had been inhabited by indo-european and proto-indo-european speakers for many thousands of years, but they did note the presence of a slightly different group of farmers along the dnieper (borysthenes), in addition to the ruling class of mounted warrior kings. 

you might imagine the greeks might have had some interaction with assyrian history during the period of persian hegemony. in fact, the greeks famously found the ruins of the assyrians when they entered the area behind alexander, and they did not know what culture the ruins belonged to, or what they had found. grecian curiosity of course found the answer. the assyrians were forgotten under persian hegemony, due to their cruelty. nobody wanted to remember them; everybody wanted to forget them. it took a lot of effort to remember them.

the persians left us no writing of any sort, which is bizarre. we know they could write, and appeared to prefer to write in aramaic. while there is no clear historical record of it, it seems that the arabs must have systematically burned anything related to persian writing, during the great translation event. anything the persians might have left us about assyria was lost in this process. the last persians appear in history as kurdish scholars during the pax arabica in baghdad, which was further destroyed during the mongol invasions. it is possible that some ancient persian writing was converted to arabic by kurdish or other scholars, and then burned and forgotten; there is no record of this. we simply have no surviving writing of any sort from thousands of years of persian civilizaton, and future historians will be forgiven for concluding they must have been illiterate, which is false.

this is a greek map, c -500.


you might try to build a map from scraps of stones found in assyrian ruins, but the archaeology in ukraine itself is more useful:


the greeks called the area the cimmerian bosporus and set up a greek client state which was half greek and half iranian. the greeks were replaced by the romans, who were driven out by iranic groups and then colonized by east germanic groups (the goths). the huns then swept into the region and killed everybody, generating waves of germans and iranians to the west, where they invaded the roman empire. it's not widely understood that there was substantive iranian migration into france during this period; the name alain is iranian in origin, and france has tons of iranian place names.

the huns were the first turkic group into the region, and their migration into it is well documented, if a little blurry. they were followed by other turkic groups like bulgars and khazars. these people are not indigenous to the region, but violently displaced the indigenous iranian people and then held on to their conquests for a few centuries.

the khazars were defeated by a confederation of swedes, who set up colonies in the region to trade with the romans, and indigenous slavs. the old legends claim that the slavs actually asked for the swedes to rule over them. i can believe that the slavs may have sought an alliance with the swedes to expel the turkish groups and, together, the two of them did. this new confederation, called rus, took control of most of modern ukraine in the 9th century, including crimea. the greeks, however, had come back and set up new trading posts. something akin to antiquity reasserted itself, with the swedes as the new royal scythians, the byzantines as the new greeks and the scythian farmers, the slavs, continuing as they always had. after the schism between catholics and orthodox, italian traders took over for byzantine traders in crimea. the populations continued to speak greek under italian control.

the mongols destroyed russia in the 13th century, and took control of the crimean peninsula in the process. this is where the crimean khanate originates from - a recent migration from east asia. however, they had a hard time maintaining control of the greek cities on the coast, who kept revolting. eventually, those cities were conquered by the ottomans, and the tatars became a client of the turks.

the scythian farmers of herodotus, the actually indigenous slavs, had since regrouped and had begun to expel mongols and turks from their homeland. they were eventually usurped by a german-speaking ruling class, a new royal scythian, and this new german-slav confederation moved south to reclaim crimea from the usurping turks a second time, this time in the 18th century. the new slavic mega state reincorporated the conquered regions - which correspond closely to the regions putin has recently reclaimed  - as new russia.

the tatars were tolerated to an extent, as conquered and absorbed turks were elsewhere in the new slavic megastate of muscovy, but it should be remember that the slavs were expelling a violent occupier. the crimean tatar economy for centuries was based on capturing and selling ukranians to turks as chattel slaves. this is where the name ukraine comes from. if the indigenous slavs wanted to enact some level of revenge on their cruel overlords, they had every justification to do so. 

slavic history is attractive to a marxist, or an engelian (?), because it has so much process. an enslaved, oppressed indigenous group (the slavs) rose up and overthrew it's cruel rulers (the turks), expelling them from their land and reducing them to tribute. eventually, stalin just shipped them back to mongolia, where they came from, and while that might have been an overreaction due to a perception that hitler tried to take advantage of them, who can blame him for it, really?

the narrative that tatars are indigenous to crimea is not merely historically wrong, it is grossly offensive. the tatars were a vicious, oppressive group of invaders that enslaved the actual indigenous people, the slavs.

this is western propaganda at it's worst.
i don't support a full russian annexation of all of ukraine. what i support is the legitimate expression of democracy in the half dozen former soviet provinces in question.

this is the maximum extent of russian annexation that i would support on purely democratic grounds:


however, this map would be impossible for russia to defend from an attack by germany, which is their justified concern. hitler and napoleon both tried the same basic thing, and they both failed. if the russians don't have a way to protect the massive flat land they exist on from attack by germans or franks, it will happen again.

a better idea - and i haven't talked about this in a while but i've been through it - is to try to split the country off at the dnieper. this map has this major river running through it:


the river is not impenetrable, but it provides a natural barrier. i'm reminded of mccarthy starting the korean war by getting too close to the yalu river, which the chinese told him not to do. mccarthy got too close, and the chinese pushed him back. the russians could conceivably use the dnieper the same way.

this would require occupying an area of ukrainian speaking territory and abandoning an area of russian speaking territory, but the next river is the vistula and while that might be better, it's also impossible.

if the russians were to hold the areas of ukraine east of the dnieper, it could arrange population transfers, like was done between greece and turkey. the greeks left ionia and went back to attica. russian speakers could transfer to the east of the river, and ukrainian speakers could transfer to the west of it.

the major reason the russians haven't been able to do this is that they won't bomb out the bridges over the dnieper. the ukranians have bombed the bridges to prevent a russian advance. the russians refuse to bomb the bridges that the ukrainians are using for supply lines. if the russians would just take the bridges out, ukraine would be unable to supply it's troops on the other side of the dnieper, and this would end very fast. my understanding is that the russians refuse to do this because they think it's barbaric, and because they think they don't have to.

this would be over by now if they had done that. without supplies, ukrainian defenses would quickly collapse and the russians could move to occupy the area east of the river with relative ease. ukraine would have to surrender. that also means the russians couldn't get over the river to take the rest of the country.

these considerations should no longer be seen as realistic. barbaric or not, if the russians don't take these bridges out soon, they could be dealing with a substantive counterforce intent on using them not just for supplies but for soldiers. they should have done this years ago. they no longer have a choice to pretend they don't have to - yes, they do have to.

this is a realistic way to actually end this. ukraine will need to accept the reality of heavy russian fortifications on the dnieper. however, the flip side of that is that ukraine itself doesn't need to be in nato to act as a further disincentive against russia. the fact that there is no geographic boundary west of the dnieper until you reach the carpathians and the vistula, both in nato, is good enough.

the next step would need to be the russians pulling nato out of poland, first. it would be pointless to continue a war against the western part of ukraine, with no geographic boundaries in ukraine that can provide them with position. the position they seek is the dnieper.

if the russians were to keep pushing further west than the dnieper, i would join the side arguing they need to stop. but, they won't.
must be chinese carp.


donald trump is entertaining, on a certain level. it's kind of my idea of entertainment.

as i immediately suspected, because it was obvious, he's targeting democrats that he suspects are running for president in 2028. that is why he targeted california, illinois and maryland.