i thought about this, and i actually think the ndp would have a bigger pull under the imminent threat of a conservative win.

the conservatives will have a new leader in place before the election. patrick brown is off the ballot, but the party will still be on it. so, those people that are trained to vote for the conservative logo as a default replacement option will still be able to do so, and if the vote is explicitly against wynne then the replacement of brown should change little in the decision making process.

i'm not convinced that the backlash is so strong, right now. all of those polls had very high numbers of undecideds. but, there is no real reason to think a change in leadership will prevent it, if it is. andrea horwath has been there the whole time; the people that are singularly irate with wynne would already be leaning ndp, if they were so inclined.

i mean,  the article is written as though brown is taking the entire conservative party out of the election, and the ndp are the only other option left standing. that's not an approximation of reality at all.

wynne is more likely to use this to appeal to centrist voters concerned about stability. the tories need to get their own party in order before they can start considering forming a government, kind of thing.

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/star-columnists/2018/01/25/patrick-brown-sex-scandal-boosts-fortunes-of-andrea-horwath-and-the-ndp.html

jagmeet singh must cut his beard.

i think that fallout from the patrick brown situation is unclear; if you're the liberals, this is almost an act of god, and it's really just out of nowhere...

one substantive factor likely lies in how the conservative base reacts to it on social media and in conversation. the party might take swift actions to try and neutralize what it sees as a nightmare, in an attempt to appeal to...sane people, really. but, you know that the good old conservative base is going to yell and scream about feminism, and how he was set up by a clique of feminazis trying to silence him.

i'm not suggesting that such a movement has legs. not in ontario. not in 2017. but, these idiots are vocal, and this is the kind of troll that they love to get in people's faces on - and that people get pissy about, quickly. here's your free market, guys - you have no control over how your voters represent your image on social media, which is the media people actually use.

avoid your uncle on facebook this week.

and, the accusations are....they're substantive because she was underage. but, that's one of the arguments that the mras love to go to town with, isn't it? "i thought she was legal. how am i supposed to know?".

but, the candidates will address their opponents, and soon enough be eager to push patrick brown out of the news cycle. wynne probably wins by default, now. but, that zombie conservative vote really is stubborn, you know.

just so it's clear, the text at astana was largely written by the russians - and the americans weren't invited. i suppose it doesn't alter complicity. but, not only is this attack not nato-sanctioned, it's russian-orchestrated.