i thought about this, and i actually think the ndp would have a bigger pull under the imminent threat of a conservative win.

the conservatives will have a new leader in place before the election. patrick brown is off the ballot, but the party will still be on it. so, those people that are trained to vote for the conservative logo as a default replacement option will still be able to do so, and if the vote is explicitly against wynne then the replacement of brown should change little in the decision making process.

i'm not convinced that the backlash is so strong, right now. all of those polls had very high numbers of undecideds. but, there is no real reason to think a change in leadership will prevent it, if it is. andrea horwath has been there the whole time; the people that are singularly irate with wynne would already be leaning ndp, if they were so inclined.

i mean,  the article is written as though brown is taking the entire conservative party out of the election, and the ndp are the only other option left standing. that's not an approximation of reality at all.

wynne is more likely to use this to appeal to centrist voters concerned about stability. the tories need to get their own party in order before they can start considering forming a government, kind of thing.

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/star-columnists/2018/01/25/patrick-brown-sex-scandal-boosts-fortunes-of-andrea-horwath-and-the-ndp.html

jagmeet singh must cut his beard.