Saturday, April 18, 2020
i'm actually an advocate of the idea that you should quit your job if you don't like it, but i understand that that's easier said than done.
i would, nonetheless, encourage you to get up and walk out, asap.
i would, nonetheless, encourage you to get up and walk out, asap.
at
19:02
"if you don't believe in intellectual property, why do you sell your music?"
the same reason you don't quit that job you hate.
if you give me a ubi, or a check for a few million dollars, i'll set up an ftp site that distributes everything i ever touched for free.
until then, i need to at least passively participate in this system, whether i like it or not.
the same reason you don't quit that job you hate.
if you give me a ubi, or a check for a few million dollars, i'll set up an ftp site that distributes everything i ever touched for free.
until then, i need to at least passively participate in this system, whether i like it or not.
at
19:00
"but, they have patents."
oh.
i see.
they have patents.
then fucking cancel them, then.
i don't care about your stupid fucking patents.
oh.
i see.
they have patents.
then fucking cancel them, then.
i don't care about your stupid fucking patents.
at
18:40
a question nobody is asking...
could we get some anti-trust legislation around proprietary requirements in medical testing? some standards?
you shouldn't be forced to deal with one company to ramp up testing.
could we get some anti-trust legislation around proprietary requirements in medical testing? some standards?
you shouldn't be forced to deal with one company to ramp up testing.
at
18:33
in the end, they may only end up available in download packages as a part of the aleph-discs.
they didn't succeed in increasing album sales, so they're really not a priority, except for purposes of historical documentation.
i would expect most communication to be written for the foreseeable future.
they didn't succeed in increasing album sales, so they're really not a priority, except for purposes of historical documentation.
i would expect most communication to be written for the foreseeable future.
at
16:47
so, what did i get done yester...this morning. it was this morning before i peeled myself away from this thing.
the backlog of laundry is now done.
and, i've reimaged the 90s laptop for continued use as a youtube player and moved it away from my bed and back to my couch. i had to try a few times before i got it right, in terms of system files. and, then i slept. that's less than i'd have liked.
it's time to eat another meal, but i'm going to eat it on my couch like i used to, before i turned the laptop off out of concerns about surveillance. it's a step towards normalcy.
i'm then going to take a shower and finally get to work on this vlogging update, which i expect to take another day or two.
i know, i know. i'm trying to focus, but the distractions are maximal right now...and everything is in disorder...
the backlog of laundry is now done.
and, i've reimaged the 90s laptop for continued use as a youtube player and moved it away from my bed and back to my couch. i had to try a few times before i got it right, in terms of system files. and, then i slept. that's less than i'd have liked.
it's time to eat another meal, but i'm going to eat it on my couch like i used to, before i turned the laptop off out of concerns about surveillance. it's a step towards normalcy.
i'm then going to take a shower and finally get to work on this vlogging update, which i expect to take another day or two.
i know, i know. i'm trying to focus, but the distractions are maximal right now...and everything is in disorder...
at
16:44
people are going to continue to die from this disease.
every day.
forever.
and, when you are old and weak, you may one day die from a mutated strain of it, yourself.
every day.
forever.
and, when you are old and weak, you may one day die from a mutated strain of it, yourself.
at
16:34
my model suggested around 3000-4000 deaths in the metro detroit area.
they appear to be about 50-60% of the way there, and seeing declines in new cases.
they appear to be about 50-60% of the way there, and seeing declines in new cases.
at
16:27
have deaths from covid-19 exceeded background levels in ontario?
not yet.
but, the rate is continuing to increase.
not yet.
but, the rate is continuing to increase.
at
16:22
there's a phrase they use in computer science to describe what happens when you put bad data into good models - garbage in, garbage out.
at
16:09
does that mean you should wear a mask?
what it means is that you should stop freaking out about getting it.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0869-5
what it means is that you should stop freaking out about getting it.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0869-5
at
16:05
if trump had redirected funding that was intended to go to the who to something like doctors without borders, would i have supported it?
yes.
yes.
at
15:51
new york hasn't crashed yet, don't get cocky. and, please understand that the crux of my argument is that the virus is extremely contagious - that this r-not is twice or three times what is estimated in the models, even as the mortality rate pushes towards 0.1%, or lower. that means that my model suggests that roughly two thirds of people in new york city are either carriers of the virus or have antibodies for it, right now. so, your grandma is in greater peril going out for a walk now than she was last week - and that holds everywhere. give it a week past the point that deaths reach background levels.
what are background levels? 30 deaths a day? 70 deaths a day? we don't know.
apparently, 61,000 people died of the flu in the united states in the 2017/2018 flu year. if you naively divide that by 365, it's 167 deaths/day - but that assumes constancy, which is wrong. the seasonal flu is seasonal. you'd want to do something like assign 75% of the deaths to the first six months of the year, which would give you a death rate more like 250/day until the end of the flu season. given that we're still in flu season, i wouldn't be surprised if the death rate for the flu is around 200-300 deaths/day right now as we speak. that's across the united states, not just in new york. but, i would encourage new york to actually do the math on this to get a set of bounds as to what they can expect normalcy to actually be, moving forwards. you're probably looking at at least 25 as a realistic goal....
so, it's probably not going to fall to zero for a city like new york. like, ever. we'll know when we get to background when we see it, but we can take some better guesses now than we could a few weeks ago, given that we now have a better understanding of how low the mortality rate is than we did previously.
what are background levels? 30 deaths a day? 70 deaths a day? we don't know.
apparently, 61,000 people died of the flu in the united states in the 2017/2018 flu year. if you naively divide that by 365, it's 167 deaths/day - but that assumes constancy, which is wrong. the seasonal flu is seasonal. you'd want to do something like assign 75% of the deaths to the first six months of the year, which would give you a death rate more like 250/day until the end of the flu season. given that we're still in flu season, i wouldn't be surprised if the death rate for the flu is around 200-300 deaths/day right now as we speak. that's across the united states, not just in new york. but, i would encourage new york to actually do the math on this to get a set of bounds as to what they can expect normalcy to actually be, moving forwards. you're probably looking at at least 25 as a realistic goal....
so, it's probably not going to fall to zero for a city like new york. like, ever. we'll know when we get to background when we see it, but we can take some better guesses now than we could a few weeks ago, given that we now have a better understanding of how low the mortality rate is than we did previously.
at
15:48
i actually live in a country that did ban (technically, nationalize.) the red cross. my dad's third wife worked for them for most of the time i knew her.
we have a government run body called the canadian blood services now, instead.
we have a government run body called the canadian blood services now, instead.
at
15:30
the who does need reform, but, fwiw, i would actually support defunding the red cross and jailing the members of samaritan's purse.
https://nypost.com/2020/04/16/white-house-steers-withheld-who-funds-to-other-organizations/
https://nypost.com/2020/04/16/white-house-steers-withheld-who-funds-to-other-organizations/
at
15:19
even with the virus issue...
my own argument has been that governments across the world have bought into the pseudoscience of social distancing without properly evaluating the evidence for it, and that it's almost certainly not going to actually work. so, i'm not prioritizing the economy over health, so much as i'm pointing out that this isn't going to work, and arguing that focusing on the weak while otherwise loosening restrictions would actually be more effective - i'm having a debate over which policy best prioritizes health, and in the process pulling out a policy that also has minimal effects on the economy, but not actually because of it. if i thought social distancing was the best health policy, i would support it; i don't. and, i'm being proven more and more right every day, it seems.
but, which side of the spectrum is rooting their policies in religious concepts about the sanctity of life and insistent on passing rules and laws to uphold those religious concepts, and which side sees the universe as an empty, barren place where life has no inherent meaning?
so long as government exists, it should do what it can to protect the weak, and i've been absolutely consistent on that point.
but, i don't believe that life is sacred; life has no inherent meaning, no value, no purpose. the difference is that i advocate for mutual aid, but i am far closer to the nihilist republican position than i am to the religious democratic one.
now, if you could only explain this to the moral majority voters that still think they're voting for reagan, or to the cultural left that thinks it's still voting for bill clinton....
my own argument has been that governments across the world have bought into the pseudoscience of social distancing without properly evaluating the evidence for it, and that it's almost certainly not going to actually work. so, i'm not prioritizing the economy over health, so much as i'm pointing out that this isn't going to work, and arguing that focusing on the weak while otherwise loosening restrictions would actually be more effective - i'm having a debate over which policy best prioritizes health, and in the process pulling out a policy that also has minimal effects on the economy, but not actually because of it. if i thought social distancing was the best health policy, i would support it; i don't. and, i'm being proven more and more right every day, it seems.
but, which side of the spectrum is rooting their policies in religious concepts about the sanctity of life and insistent on passing rules and laws to uphold those religious concepts, and which side sees the universe as an empty, barren place where life has no inherent meaning?
so long as government exists, it should do what it can to protect the weak, and i've been absolutely consistent on that point.
but, i don't believe that life is sacred; life has no inherent meaning, no value, no purpose. the difference is that i advocate for mutual aid, but i am far closer to the nihilist republican position than i am to the religious democratic one.
now, if you could only explain this to the moral majority voters that still think they're voting for reagan, or to the cultural left that thinks it's still voting for bill clinton....
at
03:23
i mean, we can have a total order here.
anarchism > socialism >> liberalism >> nihilism >> conservatism/progressivism.
anarchism > socialism >> liberalism >> nihilism >> conservatism/progressivism.
at
03:03
i'm an atheist, through and through; i want religion to just stop. completely. forever...
but, this is an example of the broader realignment issues, in that it falls neatly into this narrative i'm trying to build about what the lesser evil may be, moving forward. i'm a socialist, clearly. but, when forced to choose between conservatism, as presented by the democrats, and nihilism, as presented by the republicans, my opposition to conservatism may actually be stronger. i'm just as likely to argue that republican nihilism is preferable to democratic conservatism as i was to argue that democratic liberalism was a lesser evil to republican conservatism.
likewise, if i have to choose between a democratic party that is embracing some kind of burkeanesque interfaith approach to religion, and a republican party that is moving fully into a post-modernist framework that may pay lip service to it but doesn't actually legislate around it, i'll pick post-modernism as the less horrible option, even if i think both are terrible. i'm less afraid of post-modernism than i am of comparative religious studies.
we're still a ways out from this, and things may change, in the end.
but, seeing the democrats spend money on "mindfullness" and "meditation" is bone-chilling. it makes you stop and wonder where the country is going to be in a few more decades.
but, this is an example of the broader realignment issues, in that it falls neatly into this narrative i'm trying to build about what the lesser evil may be, moving forward. i'm a socialist, clearly. but, when forced to choose between conservatism, as presented by the democrats, and nihilism, as presented by the republicans, my opposition to conservatism may actually be stronger. i'm just as likely to argue that republican nihilism is preferable to democratic conservatism as i was to argue that democratic liberalism was a lesser evil to republican conservatism.
likewise, if i have to choose between a democratic party that is embracing some kind of burkeanesque interfaith approach to religion, and a republican party that is moving fully into a post-modernist framework that may pay lip service to it but doesn't actually legislate around it, i'll pick post-modernism as the less horrible option, even if i think both are terrible. i'm less afraid of post-modernism than i am of comparative religious studies.
we're still a ways out from this, and things may change, in the end.
but, seeing the democrats spend money on "mindfullness" and "meditation" is bone-chilling. it makes you stop and wonder where the country is going to be in a few more decades.
at
02:57
that's another potential battleground coming up, as the spectrum flips over.
it used to be that people that called themselves liberals, or aligned on the left, were absolutely vehemently opposed to any kind of religious instruction in the classroom. getting religion out of the schools was a foundational principle of liberalism, and arguably even a populist issue.
now that these fake left groups are increasingly operating as the political representation for recent immigrant groups that actually want more religion in society in general, this is an issue that we may have to relitigate, and with strange allies in doing so. we're seeing this play out in quebec, and it's probably just the start of it.
the party that the democrats are turning into is one that seems likely to embrace the central role of non-christian religions in the classroom, meaning it's going to have to change it's position on christianity in the classroom in order to remain consistent. and, we're seeing signs that the republicans may be flipping over on that, as well, as they increasingly embrace post-modernist approaches to religion, and distance themselves from the religious right.
where do you fall on an issue like that?
are you going to follow the democrats in their slow and inevitable reintroduction of religion into the classroom, as a red meat issue for their increasingly ethnic voting base? will you decide that you disagree with them, but it's not a voting issue? or are you going to hold your ground, as you find yourself increasingly attracted to a republican party that you have no common ground with on economics?
i don't know, either. really. we'll have to see the specifics.
i know i'll continue to oppose the reintroduction of religion to schools, though.
and, i know i'll continue to argue for the abolition of the catholic school system, here in ontario.
it used to be that people that called themselves liberals, or aligned on the left, were absolutely vehemently opposed to any kind of religious instruction in the classroom. getting religion out of the schools was a foundational principle of liberalism, and arguably even a populist issue.
now that these fake left groups are increasingly operating as the political representation for recent immigrant groups that actually want more religion in society in general, this is an issue that we may have to relitigate, and with strange allies in doing so. we're seeing this play out in quebec, and it's probably just the start of it.
the party that the democrats are turning into is one that seems likely to embrace the central role of non-christian religions in the classroom, meaning it's going to have to change it's position on christianity in the classroom in order to remain consistent. and, we're seeing signs that the republicans may be flipping over on that, as well, as they increasingly embrace post-modernist approaches to religion, and distance themselves from the religious right.
where do you fall on an issue like that?
are you going to follow the democrats in their slow and inevitable reintroduction of religion into the classroom, as a red meat issue for their increasingly ethnic voting base? will you decide that you disagree with them, but it's not a voting issue? or are you going to hold your ground, as you find yourself increasingly attracted to a republican party that you have no common ground with on economics?
i don't know, either. really. we'll have to see the specifics.
i know i'll continue to oppose the reintroduction of religion to schools, though.
and, i know i'll continue to argue for the abolition of the catholic school system, here in ontario.
at
02:42
i don't sign petitions, and especially not online ones.
but, if you're inclined....
i don't care how you waste your time at home, but this absolute idiocy has no place in the education system.
https://www.change.org/p/minister-of-education-please-remove-the-mindfulness-program-from-canadian-public-schools
but, if you're inclined....
i don't care how you waste your time at home, but this absolute idiocy has no place in the education system.
https://www.change.org/p/minister-of-education-please-remove-the-mindfulness-program-from-canadian-public-schools
at
02:28
lol.
there's some more of that evidence-based policy.
*sigh*
https://www.mlive.com/public-interest/2020/04/whitmer-launches-free-coronavirus-mindfulness-resources-for-michigan-residents.html
there's some more of that evidence-based policy.
*sigh*
https://www.mlive.com/public-interest/2020/04/whitmer-launches-free-coronavirus-mindfulness-resources-for-michigan-residents.html
at
02:04
this is a better approach than walking around with guns.
and, i hope they win, too.
https://nationalpost.com/pmn/health-pmn/michigan-residents-sue-governor-whitmer-over-coronavirus-pandemic-orders
and, i hope they win, too.
https://nationalpost.com/pmn/health-pmn/michigan-residents-sue-governor-whitmer-over-coronavirus-pandemic-orders
at
01:59
the who is now claiming there's no evidence that antibodies cause immunity, which is like something out of the twilight zone. it's just weird.
listen: i'll admit that i've been kind of baffled by what i'm hearing from them since this started. you can sort through the side to see my reactions. so, this is just the latest in a series of bizarre announcements that i've been struggling to make sense of from day one.
based on what i've heard them say, i'm actually more worried about the influence of some kind of shady muslim group than i am about the influence of the chinese, who corrected some of their data today (as was expected; expect more), and, frankly, seem to be as baffled by the situation as everybody else. it's actually south korea rather than china that i'm most skeptical about hiding cases and/or deaths right now, after all of that propaganda in their favour.
so, i don't want to advocate defunding them, especially given that doing so would just hand the body over to actors that are hostile to this continent.
but, i might call for the director to resign. and, i might suggest some kind of investigation to figure out what the hell is going on, and why they keep making these bizarre announcements.
again: you don't need an advanced degree to be baffled by the claim that there's no evidence that antibodies help with immunity. this is just the latest in a series of flatly weird announcements coming from the who since day one on this. so, i'll ask the same question i asked when this started: what's really going on, here?
listen: i'll admit that i've been kind of baffled by what i'm hearing from them since this started. you can sort through the side to see my reactions. so, this is just the latest in a series of bizarre announcements that i've been struggling to make sense of from day one.
based on what i've heard them say, i'm actually more worried about the influence of some kind of shady muslim group than i am about the influence of the chinese, who corrected some of their data today (as was expected; expect more), and, frankly, seem to be as baffled by the situation as everybody else. it's actually south korea rather than china that i'm most skeptical about hiding cases and/or deaths right now, after all of that propaganda in their favour.
so, i don't want to advocate defunding them, especially given that doing so would just hand the body over to actors that are hostile to this continent.
but, i might call for the director to resign. and, i might suggest some kind of investigation to figure out what the hell is going on, and why they keep making these bizarre announcements.
again: you don't need an advanced degree to be baffled by the claim that there's no evidence that antibodies help with immunity. this is just the latest in a series of flatly weird announcements coming from the who since day one on this. so, i'll ask the same question i asked when this started: what's really going on, here?
at
01:52
further, the delayed reaction in singapore is actually exactly what you'd expect, as i've pointed out. nobody should be surprised by that.
the south koreans continue to post these almost unbelievable statistics, but there's other weird reports coming out of south korea about people being reinfected, which is making me question the data altogether. maybe there's some specific thing they're doing that i don't know about, but they're really stumping me - this is a mystery, an open question. an outlier....
the south koreans continue to post these almost unbelievable statistics, but there's other weird reports coming out of south korea about people being reinfected, which is making me question the data altogether. maybe there's some specific thing they're doing that i don't know about, but they're really stumping me - this is a mystery, an open question. an outlier....
at
00:07
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)