i haven't spent much time outside recently, but this is noteworthy:

that forecast is for the first week of nov, 2024.

in recent years, we have seen the temperatures in november feature unusually warm bursts of air that quickly subside. i remember one year where we had two 27 degree days followed by vicious wind storms. the wind reasserted the fact that this is canada and it's november. so, we'd have this tug-of-war where it was trying to stay hot late into the year, but which was ultimately won by cold air plunging in from the arctic, as a result of the polar vortex breaking up due to a deficit of sunlight.

everything else aside, our weather is ultimately controlled by the sun and the yearly parade of longer and shorter days, governed by the tilt of the earth's axis, overpowers all. that will remain true for the foreseeable future, until or if this constant blizzard at the north pole ever subsides and the polar winter becomes a long summer festival. that will be a helluva party. by then, we should be able to grow new livers in test tubes and replace them on demand.

this forecast is different - constant late summer weather (by canadian standards) lingering on into mid or late november, and with no real end in sight. not fluctuations. not snaps. 15+ degree weather every single day up to or past november 15th, and unambiguously late summer or early fall weather pushing into december.

that is no longer unusual weather. that is now a change in the climate.

a few things to watch on tuesday.

1) black candidates underperform in wisconsin. it's not because they're all racist, exactly, although some percentage of them are. however, it's an open question whether people think kamala harris is actually black or not. barack obama told everybody he was half-white every ten minutes for a reason.

2) black turnout in michigan.

3) i think minnesota is going to be close.

4) pennsylvania is leaning republican, which is weird but consistent with the idea that some subset of amish or something don't want to vote for women. if harris loses pennsylvania, she's screwed. this has only been a swing state twice in recent memory, and it's been with female candidates both times. the demographic driving this isn't clear. it's more specific than white & rural, there's something else in there, and it might very well be amish. let's figure this out.

5) north carolina and georgia were supposed to be closer. black turnout is going to be a problem because they're not allowed to vote if they try. but keep an eye on that.

so, it's really going to come down to black voters in these states, and that is questionably undemocratic, but it's how it was setup. harris might have done more to reach out to white people - like standing on stage with a white musician or two - but she didn't. she ran as the black woman, which is doubly odd because it's not clear that people think she's black at all. yet, it's how it's going to be.

what trudeau doesn't understand, and will probably never understand, because he's actually a brutal racist, is that his longing for a culture and an identity is a consequence of the fact that white people had our culture and identity stolen from us by christianity, in the most brutal process of colonization in the history of the world. white people don't even deny this; we don't even contemplate it. we don't understand it. when we overthrew chistianity in the 17th and 18th centuries, we did understand it, but we had no latent or background culture to retreat to, and have been left without an identity ever since. some people, like myself, embrace building a new cultural identity on the concepts of reason, which was the framework developed out of the french revolution in response to the realization that the abolition of christianity would create this cultural void. others, like trudeau, lack the historical understanding and frankly the emotional maturity to come to terms with the fact that their identity was stolen from them, and try to fill that void by co-opting the cultural identities of others.

trudeau's framework only makes sense to him because he has no culture because his culture was stolen from him in the process of colonization by christianity.

this framework does not make sense to anybody that actually has a culture, and was not colonized or stripped of their identity and forced to start from scratch when the colonial process terminated, was overthrown and was reversed.

his father was far more intelligent than he was and understood the role of reason in reconstructing white cultural identity, but trudeau will always be beyond reason, and this process is lost on him. he will forever be lost in the purgatory of a colonized person that has had their identity stripped, and will never understand that those not in that condition will consider him a fool for trying to normalize his condition and attempting to apply it to others.

dossanjh was a smart guy. he's right.

https://nationalpost.com/_preview/news/wcm/1943398d-5795-463c-a97e-b4a23d66d8d2/?xur=strange&client_id=a8d5b917-dcb3-4cde-b475-e414d90065be