1) black candidates underperform in wisconsin. it's not because they're all racist, exactly, although some percentage of them are. however, it's an open question whether people think kamala harris is actually black or not. barack obama told everybody he was half-white every ten minutes for a reason.
2) black turnout in michigan.
3) i think minnesota is going to be close.
4) pennsylvania is leaning republican, which is weird but consistent with the idea that some subset of amish or something don't want to vote for women. if harris loses pennsylvania, she's screwed. this has only been a swing state twice in recent memory, and it's been with female candidates both times. the demographic driving this isn't clear. it's more specific than white & rural, there's something else in there, and it might very well be amish. let's figure this out.
5) north carolina and georgia were supposed to be closer. black turnout is going to be a problem because they're not allowed to vote if they try. but keep an eye on that.
so, it's really going to come down to black voters in these states, and that is questionably undemocratic, but it's how it was setup. harris might have done more to reach out to white people - like standing on stage with a white musician or two - but she didn't. she ran as the black woman, which is doubly odd because it's not clear that people think she's black at all. yet, it's how it's going to be.