1) bernie's chances of winning the democratic nomination will probably be all but decimated tomorrow. i think he can make up more than 100 delegates in california, in the best case. i don't think he can make up more than 200. a split is not good enough. he has to win. he has to make up delegates.
2) that does not mean that bernie is obligated to suspend his campaign on the near inevitability of a loss. he has claimed that everybody should get the right to vote their conscience. who can truly argue with that?
3) the united states is not a two-party system by law. if you scroll through this page, i think you'll see more than enough of an argument that he should run outside the democratic party. some arguments:
a) closed primaries where he's probably actually winning, but where his supporters can't vote for him.
b) obvious signs of vote tampering (stuffed early ballots).
c) voter suppression tactics.
d) the distribution of the vote.
i mean, he signed this pledge. fine. has the party lived up to it's side of it? i think there's an argument that it hasn't.
4) therefore, tomorrow's vote is not necessarily definitive or final. i think he should have bailed on the democrats months ago. but, at this point, he'd might as well wait until june before he does.
tomorrow may technically close a door, but it was a trap door in the first place. i've stated repeatedly that he never really had a serious chance. so, the facade may end. but, the candidacy may not - and, i would argue, should not.
some polls would help. clinton/trump/sanders. but, i think he can split the field.
let's split the republicans into five parts:
1) evangelicals--->clinton/trump [trump is a nihilist, and clinton is an evangelical]
2) rich bastards > clinton [i think she'll steal this group outright]
3) libertarians---> sanders [i think he'll steal this group outright]
4) white working class > sanders/trump [probably a clean split]
5) fiscal conservatives > trump
it's a function of how poorly trump fits into the republican party, granted. but trump is probably looking at numbers in the 30s, regardless. in a three-way race, sanders will probably bleed enough from trump to pull him closer to 30 - and maybe even into the high 20s. i consequently think that a three-way race like this becomes sanders v clinton in most of the country, with trump falling to third place.
but, some polls would help.
--
see, this is why bernie does better than clinton against trump & cruz. & trump should be kicking himself, because he could have - and probably wanted to - try and get them. unfortunately, the party knocked him in line...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K3HwaBWx2-0