Wednesday, March 9, 2016

j reacts to what michigan actually tells us about the fairness of the process

cognitive dissonance update

so, is this rigged?

well, the result was a little better than the numbers. easy to explain. put this to rest?

not quite. you don't prove a negative, right. that's why these conspiracy theories are hard to get rid of.

let's try a thought experiment. if you were going to try and rig michigan, you would stuff ballot boxes in detroit. you probably wouldn't control every polling place. you'd just control the important ones in the urban cores. and, she won huge in detroit.

if you were going to win anyways, despite attempts to rig the votes, you'd have to overpower that by winning big in the areas she doesn't control. and, that's what happened.

it's also consistent with the same kind of head-scratching results in massachusetts. you would think bernie would do better amongst low wage earners - both in detroit and in boston. that's urban core voters. and, it is the urban polling stations that she would rig if she were to rig anything.

so, it might seem on first glance that this dispels this idea. but, in fact, the results are completely consistent with the idea that she tried to rig it, but failed to actually do it.

which doesn't prove it's rigged. it just doesn't disprove it. the results in one state don't make the results in other states disappear, either.

i need more updated polling before i can say anything at all about the fairness of the remaining contests. but please do remain skeptical and please do remain vigilant.