Friday, March 27, 2020

"i'll get you next time, gadget"

no, you won't.

this is a good test case. really.

what's an empirical analysis of dr. claw's actual success rate in getting gadget? 0%. 

now, you could argue that if dr. claw tries infinitely many times to get gadget, he'll succeed eventually, so long as the actual probability is higher than 0. ok.

but, there's only a finite number of episodes.

so, what is the probability of dr. claw getting gadget this time, given that he failed n times before?

lesson: you need to be careful of statements made by authoritarian bodies.