Friday, March 27, 2020

# of deaths in the united states: ~1693
# of actual cases at estimated mortality of 0.1%:  1693000
and as a percentage of the population: 0.52%

# of deaths in south korea: ~150
# of actual cases at estimated mortality rate of 0.1%: 150000
and as a percentage of the population: 0.29%

this is perhaps expected, as south korea does have a universal system.

the growth rate in the united states is much higher right now.

but, if you follow what the science says about how south korea reacted to this, you should expect the small increases we've been seeing to drastically pick up fairly soon.

that said, because south korea is much smaller, both geographically and in terms of population, the challenges it faces are much less, and you probably shouldn't expect it to be quite comparable. the south koreans would have to be doing particularly badly to see these numbers stay roughly equal, and that's perhaps a pessimistic suggestion - no matter how poor their tactic, you would expect them to do a little better due to the geography, if nothing else.

but, you need to be careful about what the media tells you. 

this space exists to keep them honest, and i'll keep doing it.