are the liberals actually bleeding support primarily to their right?
so, what do i think of the polls in bc?
i don't think there's been many, honestly. or, at least, i don't think there's been many good ones.
the thing about online polling is that it comes with a pretty hefty bias towards young people who bunch up in specific places, so when you have a party like the liberals in bc that draws mostly from rural voters and is a cycle or two away from dying off, you have to work in that bias. it kind of follows that if all the online polls suggest the ndp is up five-ten points from where they were, there's not a lot of evidence towards movement at all.
what do the telephone polls - that use mathematical sampling techniques - actually say?
there hasn't been one since the end of september, which doesn't help anybody right now.
so, what i'm going to tell you is that i don't have any data to work with, and i consequently can't help elucidate something that doesn't exist - except to suggest to you that the metrics that we have seen would be expected to skew highly towards the ndp, and you should probably expect a close result than is being projected. there is also a weak signal suggesting that the liberal party's right may be disinterested at the moment and being underpolled; if they show up after all, we could see a surprise.
i don't have enough data to predict a majority or minority.
sorry.