Sunday, March 15, 2026

as i've stated a few times, it's relatively clear that trump wants to negotiate and what he wants to negotiate is american dominance into the iranian oil market. this is the problem. it's the source of restraint and why it's taking so long. trump doesn't want to pull the trigger because he wants to take control. the mistake he's making is treating iran like a rational actor when it isn't one, which should be abundantly clear. the iranians are repeatedly attacking multiple entities that could completely wipe them out, with little regard to consequence, because they think that everything is determined by their make believe, imaginary god. if trump would give up on his delusion about "making a deal" and just wipe them out, this would be over by now. but he probably wouldn't have done it in the first place if he didn't intend to get an agreement in the end.

socialists and other leftists on the ground seeking regime change and revolutionary overthrow need to look beyond the united states and work to tear down the regime without them. this is regrettable as the americans remain the most powerful force on the planet, but's trump intentions are clear enough. if the iranian left wants to salvage this, it need to get out in front of the us military, and not wait for it to show up.

now, some people might argue that the united states doesn't need iranian oil, but this is a foolish argument. oil is a non-renewable resource. it doesn't matter how much oil the united states has today, it will eventually run out and, when it does, it will need to look elsewhere. it is in america's strategic interest to control as much foreign oil as possible and dump it all into it's petroleum reserves for later. controlling middle eastern oil is not about today, it's about tomorrow.

the trump administration believes that the world will be running on oil for the next several decades. i certainly hope they are wrong, and think the evidence suggests that they are wrong, but that is what they think. on some level, though, they might be right. the united states, and the united states alone, may continue to run on oil for decades to come, while the rest of the world  moves past it. in fact, the  middle east may find itself in the awkward situation relatively soon where the united states is it's only remaining major market. 

the united states clearly thinks controlling oil is a strategic necessity and it thinks that because, at least right now, it has no intention of transitioning to clean energy. so it wants a friendly regime in iran that will send them the oil instead of to china. that's the point. 

socialists on the ground should not care what trump's lame duck plans are, they should take advantage of the situation to dismantle the worst fascist theocracy on the planet and replace it with a mandate from the masses.